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Reserve Bank to trial digital currency in ‘limited-scale pilot’ scheme

The Reserve Bank of Australia will trial its own digital currency as part of a research project to evaluate the future of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) in Australia.

Unlike well known cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ether, which were created by private entities or individuals, a CBDC is issued and controlled by the central bank just like cash and electronic stores of sovereign currency sitting in bank accounts.

The research project the RBA is undertaking in collaboration with the Digital Finance Cooperative Research Center (DFCRC) will focus on the uses for, and potential economic benefits of, a CBDC.

“The project, which is expected to take about a year to complete, will involve the development of a limited-scale CBDC pilot that will operate in a ring-fenced environment for a period of time and is intended to involve a pilot CBDC that is a real claim on the Reserve Bank,” the RBA noted in a media release.

“Interested industry participants will be invited to develop specific use cases that demonstrate how a CBDC could be used to provide innovative and value-added payment and settlement services to households and businesses.”

RBA deputy governor Michelle Bullock said this project is “an important step” on the path to a potential Australian CBDC.

“We are looking forward to engaging with a wide range of industry participants to better understand the potential benefits a CBDC could bring to Australia,” she said in a statement.

Dr Andreas Furche, the chief executive of the DFCRC which is undertaking the research project with the RBA, said the doubts around CBDCs are mainly focused on how useful they could actually be, and in what ways.

“CBDC is no longer a question of technological feasibility,” he argued.

“The key research questions now are what economic benefits a CBDC could enable, and how it could be designed to maximize those benefits.”

The Reserve Bank said Treasury is involved with the project, which will soon invite industry participants to pitch specific uses for a CBDC that might be selected for trials in the pilot.

The project will then help to understand some of the technological, legal and regulatory issues that arise from a CBDC.

A report on the results of the project is expected in about a year’s time.

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Real estate, RBA rates: Buyers avoid unrenovated homes as house prices fall

The Australian property marketing is already “setting”, with rising interest rates scaring borrowers away and forcing sellers to accept lower prices.

But not all homes are made equal, and buyers are becoming more picky — with newly renovated, turnkey properties now in demand, auctioneers say.

Stefan Stella from Ray White Glenroy, whose sale of a $1.5 million East Brunswick terrace to a young couple who “weren’t really looking” went viral over the weekend, told news.com.au there was “a bit of turmoil” in the market but that “anything that’s priced correctly does sell”.

“I had another auction on Saturday that was a complete dead duck, no action whatsoever,” he said.

That property, a 700 square meter corner block development site, would have normally sold for $1.3 million to $1.4 million, but passed in at $1.1 million.

Given the troubles in the building industry, Mr Stella said properties that are already renovated are more desirable.

“Basically anything that is going to require work, people are now taking into consideration the additional time and costs,” he said.

“Barkly Street was an exception, it’s the best street in East Brunswick.”

When prices began to fall earlier this year, Mr Stella said many sellers baulked at taking a haircut on a “superior property” to one down the street that might have sold for a higher price just a few months earlier.

“With all the negativity in the media the past three or four months, I’d say now most people are accustomed to the market that is, whereas at the start they were utilizing comparable sales from three months earlier when the market was no longer comparable. ,” he said.

“That’s where it was hard. Everything is still selling provided it’s priced right.”

Mr Stella said apartments had been worst affected by the downturn, followed by unrenovated properties.

“And then the townhouse market, I think because of its pricepoint, you generally find it holds its own a little bit more,” he said.

Meanwhile, Sydney-based auctioneer Tom Panos said in a video update on Saturday that seven out of his 10 auctions that day sold.

“That’s a pretty good result – 70 per cent today, which is saying to me two things,” he said.

“Number one that there is settling and normality coming into the market.”

Mr Panos said the media was the “best vendor manager in real estate at the moment”.

“Every time I walk into a property the first thing I ask is, ‘Mr and Mrs Vendor, what’s your understanding of the current market?’ Nine out 10 vendors say to me, ‘We know it’s hard, and we know it’s getting harder.’ And for that reason you are getting vendors that are either giving you reserves that are realistic, or they’re giving you optimistic reserves with a fallback number which is normally good enough to sell a property,” he said.

After a few weeks of “OK results” – Mr Panos in July said he was “really stressed” after almost no buyers showed up to his auctions – the real estate coach said there was a “settling in the market and people are accepting these are the new values”.

“The real question is going to be, what’s going to happen in September, October, November as the market appraisals start lining up now as we end the winter, and we move into our spring selling season which sees an upswing in listings?” he said.

“One would assume that more listings should see a softening of prices. But the softening’s already happened. I’ve said it before, there’s a data lag that economists are missing by about three, four months. The market has already been repositioned in most areas by 10 per cent, even 15 per cent, some markets even 20 per cent. But realistically, we’re probably going to see another softening of around five, 10 per cent. We’re close to the bottom I think.”

He pointed out that “every time there’s a rate rise that equates to 1 per cent, it basically means borrowers get 10 per cent less from their bank”.

“So if you get a 2 per cent increase in interest rates, you’re roughly looking at approximately a 20 per cent drop in borrowing availability for a buyer from a bank,” he said.

“This is an important number because what’s it’s basically telling us is that if rates keep going up at the speed that they’re going up at the moment, that buyers are going to have less money.”

Mr Panos speculated that this is why there were “a few buyers that are rushing in and snapping up property”.

“They’ve sat down with their mortgage broker and their broker has basically said to them, ‘Listen, there’s two sides to this. Yes there might be a further dropping of prices, but since they’ve already dropped, and you’ve got this loan approved right now, use it, secure a home that you like, and even if you haven’t bought at the bottom , you are keeping it for the next five, 10 years. But if you don’t buy it right now, guess what happens? You might not have the same amount of money out in the marketplace because you’re going to be rerated by the banks.’”

It comes after the Reserve Bank hiked interest rates for the fourth month in a row last week.

The 50 basis-point increase at the central bank’s August meeting brings the official cash rate to 1.85 per cent, up from the record low 0.1 per cent it was up until May.

Already, the rise in interest rates has pushed house prices down in most major cities as borrowers stare down the barrel of higher monthly payments.

PropTrack’s Home Price Index shows a national decline of 1.66 per cent in prices since March, but some regions have seen much sharper falls.

“As repayments become more expensive with rising interest rates, housing affordability will decline, prices pushing further down,” PropTrack senior economist Eleanor Creagh said.

There were 1080 auctions across the country on Saturday with 51.3 per cent sold, according to preliminary clearance rate data from PropTrack.

Melbourne saw 364 auctions with a clearance rate of 59.1 per cent, while Sydney had 354 auctions with a clearance rate of 48.9 per cent.

“It was a quiet week for auctions across the country,” Ms Creagh said.

“Although, clearance rates ticked up in Brisbane, Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide and Perth despite the third consecutive outsized rate rise delivered last week which brought the cash rate to the highest it’s been in six years. We are perhaps reaching a point where vendor price expectations have lowered after several months of price falls in some parts of the country, so more properties are clearing at auction.”

Ms Creagh added that buyers were also aware that borrowing power would be “further constrained with rates continuing to rise and so some are taking advantage of the increased choice available now”.

“New listings have remained strong and although prices are falling, there is lots of choice for buyers,” she said.

“That said, sales volumes are slowing as housing market conditions have moderated with rising rates.”

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Economists deeply divided over Reserve Bank’s likely interest rate trajectory

Deep divisions are emerging among some of Australia’s leading bank economists on their outlook for interest rates and the Australian economy.

In one camp are those, such as the economists at Westpac and ANZ, who believe that the cash rate target will pass 3 per cent before the end of this year.

Both are tipping the RBA’s benchmark official rate to peak at 3.35 per cent — it is currently 1.85 per cent — meaning interest rates would almost double from where they are, rising by another 1.5 percentage points over the next six months or so.

The cash rate target was just 0.1 per cent at the beginning of May.

In fact, Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans is not only predicting the cash rate will get to 3.35 per cent, but arguing it must if the Reserve Bank is serious about bringing down inflation.

Westpac and CBA logos
Westpac is expecting the cash rate to hit 3.35 per cent, but CBA thinks it will top out at 2.6 per cent before falling next year.(abcnews)

“The key reason why we insist that a sharper slowdown in demand is required in 2023 is that a much stronger set of demand conditions … runs the risk of resilient high inflationary expectations,” he wrote in response to the RBA’s Statement on Monetary Policy, released on Friday.

The Reserve Bank used market forecasts of a 3 per cent cash rate to underpin its latest economic forecasts, which did not have inflation falling back even to the top of its 2–3 per cent target range until the end of 2024.

Mr Evans said those forecasts showed that the RBA should raise rates more aggressively, even at the expense of slower economic growth — Westpac’s modeling tips annual economic growth of just 1 per cent next year if rates hit 3.35 per cent.

“Such an approach would give the bank the best chance of managing this difficult task of returning inflationary expectations to more normal levels and deflating the current ‘inflationary psychology’ which is now at risk of taking hold,” he said.

Too many rate rises could ‘take the economy backwards’

Then there is the other camp of economists, represented by the Commonwealth Bank and NAB among the big four, who cannot see the cash rate getting above 3 per cent in the near future.

“I don’t think it’s likely to happen because I think the Reserve Bank, once they get the cash rate to around their estimate of neutral [somewhere near 2.5 per cent]will want to pause and actually see how the economy’s responding to the rate hikes that they’ve delivered,” CBA’s head of Australian economics Gareth Aird told RN Breakfast.

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Is Australia at risk of a recession? – Monday Finance with Michael Janda

“They are putting through a lot of tightening in a very short amount of time and, if they continue to hike at the rate that they’re doing and just keep going all the way to 3 per cent and even above that level, they’ re not going to be able to actually assess the impact that those hikes are having on the economy in that in that amount of time.

“Now, it’s possible that they end up taking the cash rate to those levels, but I think if they do that, they’ll end up reversing gear in the not too distant future because … we have a highly indebted household sector in Australia and rate rises of that magnitude will just put too many households under stress and I think that will ultimately take the economy backwards.”

The Reserve Bank has recently changed its language slightly to emphasize that “it is not on a pre-set path”.

“The size and timing of future interest rate increases will be guided by the incoming data and the board’s assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labor market,” RBA governor Philip Lowe said after last week’s latest half-a-percentage-point rate rise .

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Melbourne real estate: Couple mocked for impulse buying $1.5m terrace

A young Melbourne couple have been roasted online after “impulse buying” a $1.5 million East Brunswick terrace at auction.

But the agent who sold the property has now spoken out, saying the backlash from “keyboard warriors” is unfair and that the sale has been misrepresented.

Property website Domain published an article on Saturday about the young buyers of 110 Barkly Street, which sold under the hammer after the couple pipped another bidder for just $500.

Darcy and Tessa, who declined to give their last names, ultimately paid $1,500,500 for the deceased estate, which went to auction with a price guide of $1.3 million to $1.43 million.

“To be honest we weren’t really looking, we were just looking casually and this one popped up,” Tessa told Domain.

Darcy added, “There’s a bit of concern around with what housing prices are doing but this one really stood out to us, and it turned out we got it.”

The couple said they planned to fix up the terrace and rent it out in the short term before moving in later and doing further renovation.

Darcy said while interest rate rises were “certainly something to consider”, the couple were “in a good position with renting it out at this point”.

“From our point of view we can pass that on to the rental market,” he said.

The article went viral on Reddit after a user on the Melbourne forum posted a screenshot of the headline.

“I guess I don’t feel so bad about impulse buying a Snickers at the Coles checkout now,” they wrote.

“I mean we’ve all been there, right? Just wandering down the street to get coffee or something, you’ve got $1.5 million burning a hole in your pocket and you stumble across an auction – damn it! Did I really just buy a house again? Man my wife is going to give me a hard time about this when I get back.”

One person replied, “I genuinely know two people who have done this. One whilst driving past on the way to visit a friend (investment property in Footscray), and the other whose husband came home and announced he’d bought a new family home. WTF.”

Another wrote, “Joke’s on them, be at least $500,000 less in about six months.”

Ray White Glenroy auctioneer Stefan Stella told news.com.au on Monday he felt the reaction from “keyboard warriors” online had been “pretty harsh”.

“As much as it said they weren’t really looking, they did see it on the first open, came multiple times – they were there three times,” he said.

“In my opinion they were probably always going to get it. The underbidder only saw it in the last week. I think what they may have meant was they weren’t actively looking and religiously out there every Saturday, that’s potentially the message they were trying to get across.”

It comes after the Reserve Bank hiked interest rates for the fourth month in a row last week.

The 50 basis-point increase at the central bank’s August meeting brings the official cash rate to 1.85 per cent, up from the record low 0.1 per cent it was up until May.

Already, the rise in interest rates has pushed house prices down in most major cities as borrowers stare down the barrel of higher monthly payments.

PropTrack’s Home Price Index shows a national decline of 1.66 per cent in prices since March, but some regions have seen much sharper falls.

“As repayments become more expensive with rising interest rates, housing affordability will decline, prices pushing further down,” PropTrack senior economist Eleanor Creagh said.

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Construction industry collapse: Sign sector is heading for a bust

In the history of Australia, the nation’s economy has often been defined by booms and busts. From the 1890s depression driven by a collapse in wool prices and housing price crash, all the way through to the current boom in thermal coal prices, Australia’s economy has thrived and dived on boom and bust cycles.

In October 2019, the Reserve Bank warned of yet another boom that would turn to a bust, this time in the construction sector. At the time RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle made a speech to warn of falling activity in the industry, stating that it would subtract around 1 percentage point from GDP growth and that there was some risk the decline could be even larger.

Around that time investment bank UBS was equally concerned, warning that construction job ads were pointing to around 100,000 jobs potentially being lost in the industry as activity levels dropped from its peak.

With every boom comes a bust

Looking at the data, it’s clear why Debelle and the RBA were concerned about the direction of the industry. Between April 2012 and November 2017, the construction sector underwent an enormous boom following a period of rapidly falling activity resulting from the end of projects driven by the Rudd and Gillard government’s first homeowner grants. During this period dwelling approvals rose by 119 per cent and the construction sector enjoyed a period of strong growth even while other parts of the economy struggled.

But the continued strength of the construction sector was not to be.

Between November 2017 and the pre-pandemic lows of January 2020, dwelling approvals fell by 41.5 per cent. Naturally in time, dwelling commencements also fell from their peaks, dropping by 31.8 per cent between March 2018 and September 2019.

The pandemic effect

At the start of 2020, it was all very much looking like the RBA’s concerns about the future of the construction sector were justified. But when the pandemic arrived on Australia’s shores just a few months later everything changed.

In just a few months the fortunes of the construction sector changed dramatically, from a slowly dwindling pipeline of projects to unprecedented levels of government support for the industry.

From June 4 2020, the federal government’s ‘HomeBuilder’ program provided a $25,000 grant for eligible new builds and large scale home renovations on homes that met the government’s criteria. According to the federal Treasury as of March 2022, HomeBuilder had cost a total of $2.1 billion and received more than 137,000 applications (113,113 for new builds and 24,642 for renovations).

According to an analysis from Master Builders Australia, the value of building work supported by HomeBuilder amounted to $41.6 billion.

Various state and territory government grants for new homes also helped increase the number of new homes under construction to all time record highs.

Meanwhile, as the way Australians live and work changed dramatically as a result of the pandemic, demand for home renovations surged. According to the ABS during 2021 Australians spent $12.3 billion on renovating their homes, up 33 per cent compared with 2020.

Amid all this stimulus and pandemic driven activity, the construction sector has at times suffered from materials and labor shortages as it attempted to keep pace with rising demand.

But with HomeBuilder and various state and territory grants now in the rear view mirror, a concerning picture of the future is now slowly emerging.

Concerning signs

Since peaking in March 2021, dwelling approvals have failed by 29 per cent as of the latest data for June this year. After hitting an all-time record high in June 2021, dwelling commencements are following approvals down, falling 27.5 per cent as of the March quarter.

While a relatively strong pipeline of work remains and tradies are still in huge demand across much of the nation, the various forward looking indicators for the industry are showing similar concerning signs to those displayed in 2019.

However, unlike 2019 the broader economic circumstances are quite different and there are risks that the fortunes of the construction sector could deteriorate more swiftly. With mortgage rates currently rising at their most rapid relative rate in Australian history and inflation tipped by Treasury to hit 7.75 per cent by the end of the year, in time Australians may be much more reticent to take the plunge and pull the trigger on building a brand new home.

In 2020 the construction sector became the latest example of the “Lucky Country’s” good fortune coming to the rescue at exactly the right time. But now with a very different backdrop of economic circumstances, the sector has become even larger and activity levels even higher than the previous peaks, from which the RBA and UBS warned that the falls from could prove quite challenging.

Ultimately, despite the deteriorating forward looking indicators it is still very much early days for the construction sectors eventually slow down. More government stimulus or social housing construction may yet still come to somewhat fill the gap, but whether the sectors good fortune will hold, remains very much up in the air.

Tarric Brooker is a freelance journalist and social commentator | @AvidCommentator

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Property: Cities where you can still snap up a bargain on housing in Australia revealed

Rising interest rates might be putting off some people from purchasing a property amid fears they cannot afford the mortgage stress.

But whether you are looking for a house to make your home, or an investment property, there are still some bargains to be found across Australia.

Real Estate Institute of Australia president Hayden Groves told NCA NewsWire markets like Sydney, spurred on by low interest rates and economic stimulus, had experienced rapid price gains of about 30 per cent in 2021, peaking earlier this year.

“Other east coast markets have performed similarly well and are now beginning to moderate as affordability constraints impact,” he said.

“In contrast, the markets of Perth and Darwin, since early 2020, have underperformed comparative to east coast cities.

“They are now enviable, more affordable and continue to grow thanks to migration-led demand, strong economies and tight housing supply.”

Mr Groves observed that in the hyper-inflated markets of Sydney and Hobart, prices were beginning to rationalize due to buyer uncertainty.

“Brisbane’s market remains buoyant thanks to migration pressures fueling demand, whereas Adelaide continues to perform well thanks to the flow-down effects from relocations from higher priced regions across Melbourne,” he said.

“Price rises have already reversed in Melbourne, Sydney and Hobart, while Perth and Adelaide remain strong off the back of more constrained growth.”

Mr Groves said Perth remained the most affordable capital in Australia.

“Average mortgage holders part with around 24 per cent of their wages to service their loans,” he said.

“Compared this to Sydney-siders who currently give up on average 46 per cent of their salary to meet their mortgage payments.

“Median house prices in Perth are about $550,000, less than half that of Sydney’s median prices and well below Hobart, Brisbane and Adelaide.”

Darwin and some major regional city areas in eastern Victoria, north Adelaide and northeast Tasmania also offered good value, Mr Groves added.

He noted interest rates remained low and were coming up from “emergency” levels.

“It is good news that Australian property markets head back to a more balanced environment, although as housing supply remains below underlying demand, property values ​​are likely to retain much of their gains experienced since early 2020,” he said.

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Reserve Bank wary of cautious consumers amid falling house prices, as global economy sours

The Reserve Bank has slashed its forecasts for economic growth as rate rises, house price falls and a souring global economy weigh on Australia’s outlook.

The bank has dramatically scaled back its forecasts for household consumption, which accounts for about 60 per cent of Australia’s economy.

“Higher consumer prices, rising interest rates and declining housing prices are expected to weigh on growth in private spending, at the same time as growth in public demand slows,” the bank noted in its latest Statement on Monetary Policy.

The bank slashed its consumption forecast for the middle of next year from 4.4 per cent to 2.8 per cent, echoing the results of surveys that show consumer sentiment approaching recessionary levels.

Higher interest rates are expected to be a major factor behind tightened belts, with the RBA basing its forecasts on an assumption that its cash rate would hit 3 per cent by the end of the year – up from 1.85 per cent currently – before falling back a little by the end of 2024.

It is important to note that this is not an RBA forecast for the cash rate, but an assumption based on market pricing and economist forecasts.

The outlook for Australia’s gross domestic product (GDP) has been cut by a full percentage point from around 4.2 per cent for December 2022 to 3.2 per cent.

Those cuts continue for the rest of the forecasting period, with the economy expected to grow just 1.75 per cent for the next two years.

Falling house prices, combined with the previous construction boom inspired by ultra-low interest rates and the previous government’s HomeBuilder grant, will result in dwelling investment falling sharply (-4.8 per cent) over 2024.

State and federal governments are also not expected to provide any assistance, with expectations that public spending will shrink next year.

Real wages to keep shrinking

Despite the slowdown in GDP growth, the RBA expects the jobs market to remain strong.

It is now predicting that unemployment will bottom out at about 3.25 per cent later this year before gradually creeping back up to 4 per cent by the end of 2024, as economic growth slows and migration flows start to ease some labor shortages.

Despite this leading to a modest pick-up in wage rises to about 3.5 per cent next year, the Reserve Bank still expects real wages to fall for at least the next year – that is, prices will keep rising faster than pay packets.

After peaking at 7.75 per cent by the end of this year, inflation is still expected to be about 6.2 per cent by the middle of next year, and 4.3 per cent at the end of 2023.

A key reason for this will be further pain for electricity and gas users.

“Contacts within the bank’s liaison program generally expect further significant increases in retail electricity prices in 2023,” the RBA observed.

“This is largely because the recently announced regulated price increases for 2022 were decided before the latest run-up in wholesale prices and because wholesale prices are expected to remain elevated.”

Consumers can also expect to see more manufacturers and retailers passing the increased cost of their inputs on in retail prices.

“A significant share of firms in the bank’s liaison program have increased prices or expect to do so over the coming months as a result of earlier increases in input costs,” the report noted.

“Some upstream cost pressures are showing signs of easing but it will take some time before this affects prices paid by consumers.”

Risks ‘skewed to the downside’

However, even those downgraded forecasts remain vulnerable to a weaker global economy.

The IMF recently slashed its global economic forecasts, while the Bank of England overnight warned of a long recession in the UK even as it raised interest rates there by half a percentage point.

“The risks to the global outlook are skewed to the downside,” the RBA warned.

“The synchronized nature of the tightening in monetary policy globally could prove quite contractionary, and is occurring at a time when fiscal policy is offering less support.”

Closer to home, the Reserve Bank has an eye on Australia’s biggest trading partner, where economic growth has virtually ground to a halt in recent months.

“Restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 in China led to an unexpectedly large contraction there in the June quarter; further outbreaks could both weigh on growth in China and disrupt global supply chains,” the bank cautioned.

“The Chinese economy is also contending with weak property market conditions and increasing levels of distress among developers.”

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Commonwealth Bank is first major bank to lift interest rates, two days after RBA rates decision

After two days of silence, Commonwealth Bank has finally confirmed it will lift interest rates on its variable mortgages by 0.5 percentage points.

This makes CBA the first of the “big four” banks to pass on the Reserve Bank’s latest rate hike.

The RBA lifted its cash rate target by 0.5 percentage points on Tuesday, taking the new rate to a six-year high of 1.85 per cent.

It was no surprise that the commercial banks would pass on the RBA’s rate increase to their borrowers.

However, the surprising aspect is how uncharacteristically slow the banks have been in making such announcements in the past couple of days.

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Reserve Bank hikes interest rates for fourth consecutive month(Rhiana Witson)

CBA’s main rivals — Westpac, NAB and ANZ — still haven’t provided any update on their new borrowing rates.

Australia’s fifth-largest lender, Macquarie Bank, was the first bank to lift its rates — within hours of the RBA’s decision on Tuesday.

This was followed on Wednesday by ubank — an NAB subsidiary — announcing it would lift its savings rates by 0.5 percentage points in September.

Delay in being the first mover

“This kind of waiting game is unusual, but not unprecedented,” said Sally Tindall, the research director of RateCity.

“Back in 2010, three of the big four banks took between eight and 10 days to make announcements following the 0.25 percentage point RBA hike on 2 November.”

“The delay could be a worrying sign for savers. It’s possible the banks are still mulling over whether they will pass on the full hike to all their savings customers.”

“However, the big four banks could just be playing a game of chicken to see which one of them moves first.”

CBA increased its the standard variable rates for its borrowers by 0.5 percentage points.

The bank also said it would increase the rate on “select savings products”, meaning it has not passed on the RBA’s full rate hike to all savers.

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Reserve Bank raises interest rates for fourth-straight month

The Reserve Bank has increased interest rates for the fourth month in a row, raising its cash rate target by half a percentage point.

The RBA has now lifted its benchmark interest rate by 1.75 percentage points since its first rate rise in May, with the cash rate target sitting at 1.85 per cent.

In his post-meeting statement, Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe said the latest rate rise was unlikely to be the last this year.

“The board expects to take further steps in the process of normalizing monetary conditions over the months ahead, but it is not on a pre-set path,” he said.

“The size and timing of future interest rate increases will be guided by the incoming data and the board’s assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labor market.

“The board is committed to doing what is necessary to ensure that inflation in Australia returns to target over time.”

Woman in suit stands in front of Westpac corporate signage
Besa Deda is the chief economist for St George Bank and Westpac Business Bank.(ABC News: Daniel Irvine)

St George Bank chief economist Besa Deda said the Reserve Bank had already raised rates faster than any time since 1994, but she expected more.

“We think their cash rate could have a 3-handle on it by the end of this year, because inflation is running at its fastest rate since the early 1990s,” she told The Business.

“We are expecting that the Reserve Bank will deliver rate hikes for every board meeting until February next year.”

‘Real risk’ of recession

Mr Lowe acknowledged that it would be a difficult task.

“The board places a high priority on the return of inflation to the 2-3 per cent range over time, while keeping the economy on an even keel,” he warned.

“The path to achieve this balance is a narrow one and clouded in uncertainty, not least because of global developments.”

The managing director of EQ Economics and former ANZ Bank chief economist, Warren Hogan, warned that a recession was a “real risk” if the Reserve Bank raised interest rates too fast.

“I think they just need to be patient with this tightening cycle and try and get this inflation under control over a couple of years, rather than rush it and try and get it done within a year,” he cautioned.

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Mark Bouris reveals five tips to safeguarding money as inflation soars

Inflation will very likely hit 7 per cent by the end of 2022, which means there’s more than a fair chance there will be further interest rate hikes passed on to you the borrower before the end of the year, as the RBA attempts to rein spending in order to keep inflation in check.

This is not good news, but there’s no way the Reserve Bank could sit back and do nothing.

We’ve all benefited from cash rate lows of 0.1 per cent. But with it now at 1.35 per cent, a jump that has happened in just three months, you can bet that there’s more to come.

As that rate is passed on to anyone who’s borrowed money and doesn’t have a fixed rate, what can you do to safeguard your investments and where should you place your cash?

1. Think long-term, not short-term

If you have a thoughtful, long-term investment strategy, there’s no need to “chop and change” it just because interest rates are going up.

The worst mistake you can make as an investor is selling when the market has bottomed out or make rash decisions that could result in you missing out on potential returns. A lot of Australians who took the opportunity to withdraw money from their super funds when Covid first hit, missed out on one of the best years for super returns.

If you’re looking to invest for the next 10 to 20 years, it’s best to ride out the interest rate hikes that are coming our way.

That said, if you have a shorter-term “investment horizon”, maybe close to retiring, it may make sense to be more cautious and reduce your exposure to “riskier” assets such as shares.

2. Build up your cash savings

Holding cash deposits in the bank as interest rates rise could be a safe option that will generate some income.

Having six to 12-month Term Deposits are a safe option for those with available funds, with some saving accounts offering higher rates if funds are deposited into them on a regular basis.

Be sure to shop around for the best deal as returns vary wildly between institutions. And before committing to a term deposit, it’s wise to consider your other investment objectives during the time the money will be locked away.

3. Property

Although property is more vulnerable to rising interest rates, some of these investments could benefit.

Rising inflation could be good news for property investors as it could lead to higher rents, which in turn could generate large enough returns to offset the negative effect of higher interest rates. Tight leasing markets and the prospect of higher yields and long-term capital gains should sustain interest in investment properties, despite rising interest rates.

With vacancy rates at an all-time low, now could be a good time to offset interest rate rises by buying more investment properties that will yield great cash flow.

As borders have opened up, we’ve seen an increase and influence of expatriates returning home. Add to this a drop in construction approvals and the government ramping up migration to assist the economy post-Covid – rents will continue to increase significantly in many locations over the next few years, helping to reduce the impact of the rate rises.

It pays to speak to a professional mortgage broker who can help make an assessment of your options with regards to repayments and future lending.

4. The Share Market

Always a riskier proposition but potentially some of the highest returns.

Keep in mind that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and great care is needed when making share selections.

Many people seek the assistance of an experienced investment adviser to do this for them.

5. Bonds

Fixed income assets, such as government and corporate bonds are often seen as providing a relatively stable and reliable return.

When purchasing a government bond, you are essentially lending money to the government which they will pay you back with interest. The interest is paid to you in regular facilities throughout the length of the bond.

Fixed income assets could be considered boring by some investors but having them as part of your investment portfolio can help to offset ant losses you may have had from the share market – hence their classification as a “defensive” asset.

…and a thin red line

All the things I’ve mentioned above are food for thought at one end of your balance sheet, but don’t forget what’s going out at the other end.

My mum used to say, “Take care of your pennies and the pounds will take care of themselves.” Like most motherhood statements, this one is true and makes for good practice right now.

I’m making a list of those ongoing subscriptions I’ve picked up over the last few years and unnecessary money I’m spending in the cloud. It’s a leaner time now and I’m drawing a red line through those that I don’t need or can do without. I suggest you do the same. Make it a habit, not just something to do when times get tough.

There’s a famous Rudyard Kipling poem called If that begins with the words, “If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs…” Right now, it’s time to hear those words. Don’t lose your head, keep it sane, simple, straightforward and you’ll come out the other side of this.

Mark Bouris is the Executive Chairman of Yellow Brick Home Loans, for more information on getting the best home loan, refinancing and some of the industry’s leading experts tips visit the Y Home Loans website

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