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Economist Saul Eslake predicts Australia’s interest rate growth will slow

There is a glimmer of hope for Australians fearing more interest rate pain, with a leading economist predicting the massive hikes could soon start to ease.

On August 2, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates for a fourth consecutive month, bringing them to a six-year high of 1.85 per cent.

It was also the third month in a row the cash rate rose by 0.5 per cent, the fastest interest rate growth Australia has experienced in almost 30 years.

The RBA has made it clear interest rates will continue to go up as it attempts to bring soaring inflation levels down.

But independent economist Saul Eslake, former Bank of America Merrill Lynch chief economist (Australia and New Zealand), believes interest rates will not rise as high as some are predicting.

“I think the Reserve Bank is of a mind to get it (interest rates) up to about 2.5 per cent by the end of the year. That could be either 2.35 per cent or 2.6 per cent,” he told NCA NewsWire.

“Then they will be able to pause to assess the impact of what they by then will have done.

“In my view, that may well be enough to slow the economy sufficiently.”

Mr Eslake said raising the cash rate to 2.35 or 2.6 per cent should be enough to achieve the RBA’s goal of slowing down the growth of domestic spending to counter inflation.

“As customers do have to start paying for the rate increases that have been announced, you should see spending slow quite a bit,” he said.

“The other part of the answer is that there is now starting to be some evidence to suggest that the global sources of inflationary pressure have peaked.”

Mr Eslake’s projection goes against what the country’s big four banks have previously predicted after they all unanimously forecast more pain for Australians.

NAB expected the cash rate to sit at 2.85 per cent by November, while Westpac forecasted it would rise to 3.35 per cent by February next year.

But Westpac’s forecast was not as dire as ANZ’s, who expected the cash rate to rise above three per cent before the Christmas holidays.

“Our expectation is that the RBA will deliver this via four more successive 50 basis point rate hikes in August, September, October and November,” ANZ’s head of Australian economics, David Plank, wrote in July.

“This 200 basis points of additional tightening sees the cash rate target at 3.35 per cent by November.”

The CBA forecasted the cash rate will sit at 2.60 percentage points by November.

Mr Eslake acknowledged and did not dismiss these projections, but expressed concern over what it could mean for the Australian economy.

“My view would be that if the Reserve Bank does end up going straight to 3 per cent or 3.5 per cent… there will be a much greater risk of a sharper slowdown in the Australian economy,” he said.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe has previously said he expects they will take further action on interest rates, but indicated those changes are not “pre-set” and subject to incoming data at the time.

“The Board expects to take further steps in the process of normalizing monetary conditions over the months ahead, but it is not on a pre-set path,” he said in a statement following the August hike.

“The size and timing of future interest rate increases will be guided by the incoming data and the Board’s assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labor market.”

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Real estate, RBA rates: Buyers avoid unrenovated homes as house prices fall

The Australian property marketing is already “setting”, with rising interest rates scaring borrowers away and forcing sellers to accept lower prices.

But not all homes are made equal, and buyers are becoming more picky — with newly renovated, turnkey properties now in demand, auctioneers say.

Stefan Stella from Ray White Glenroy, whose sale of a $1.5 million East Brunswick terrace to a young couple who “weren’t really looking” went viral over the weekend, told news.com.au there was “a bit of turmoil” in the market but that “anything that’s priced correctly does sell”.

“I had another auction on Saturday that was a complete dead duck, no action whatsoever,” he said.

That property, a 700 square meter corner block development site, would have normally sold for $1.3 million to $1.4 million, but passed in at $1.1 million.

Given the troubles in the building industry, Mr Stella said properties that are already renovated are more desirable.

“Basically anything that is going to require work, people are now taking into consideration the additional time and costs,” he said.

“Barkly Street was an exception, it’s the best street in East Brunswick.”

When prices began to fall earlier this year, Mr Stella said many sellers baulked at taking a haircut on a “superior property” to one down the street that might have sold for a higher price just a few months earlier.

“With all the negativity in the media the past three or four months, I’d say now most people are accustomed to the market that is, whereas at the start they were utilizing comparable sales from three months earlier when the market was no longer comparable. ,” he said.

“That’s where it was hard. Everything is still selling provided it’s priced right.”

Mr Stella said apartments had been worst affected by the downturn, followed by unrenovated properties.

“And then the townhouse market, I think because of its pricepoint, you generally find it holds its own a little bit more,” he said.

Meanwhile, Sydney-based auctioneer Tom Panos said in a video update on Saturday that seven out of his 10 auctions that day sold.

“That’s a pretty good result – 70 per cent today, which is saying to me two things,” he said.

“Number one that there is settling and normality coming into the market.”

Mr Panos said the media was the “best vendor manager in real estate at the moment”.

“Every time I walk into a property the first thing I ask is, ‘Mr and Mrs Vendor, what’s your understanding of the current market?’ Nine out 10 vendors say to me, ‘We know it’s hard, and we know it’s getting harder.’ And for that reason you are getting vendors that are either giving you reserves that are realistic, or they’re giving you optimistic reserves with a fallback number which is normally good enough to sell a property,” he said.

After a few weeks of “OK results” – Mr Panos in July said he was “really stressed” after almost no buyers showed up to his auctions – the real estate coach said there was a “settling in the market and people are accepting these are the new values”.

“The real question is going to be, what’s going to happen in September, October, November as the market appraisals start lining up now as we end the winter, and we move into our spring selling season which sees an upswing in listings?” he said.

“One would assume that more listings should see a softening of prices. But the softening’s already happened. I’ve said it before, there’s a data lag that economists are missing by about three, four months. The market has already been repositioned in most areas by 10 per cent, even 15 per cent, some markets even 20 per cent. But realistically, we’re probably going to see another softening of around five, 10 per cent. We’re close to the bottom I think.”

He pointed out that “every time there’s a rate rise that equates to 1 per cent, it basically means borrowers get 10 per cent less from their bank”.

“So if you get a 2 per cent increase in interest rates, you’re roughly looking at approximately a 20 per cent drop in borrowing availability for a buyer from a bank,” he said.

“This is an important number because what’s it’s basically telling us is that if rates keep going up at the speed that they’re going up at the moment, that buyers are going to have less money.”

Mr Panos speculated that this is why there were “a few buyers that are rushing in and snapping up property”.

“They’ve sat down with their mortgage broker and their broker has basically said to them, ‘Listen, there’s two sides to this. Yes there might be a further dropping of prices, but since they’ve already dropped, and you’ve got this loan approved right now, use it, secure a home that you like, and even if you haven’t bought at the bottom , you are keeping it for the next five, 10 years. But if you don’t buy it right now, guess what happens? You might not have the same amount of money out in the marketplace because you’re going to be rerated by the banks.’”

It comes after the Reserve Bank hiked interest rates for the fourth month in a row last week.

The 50 basis-point increase at the central bank’s August meeting brings the official cash rate to 1.85 per cent, up from the record low 0.1 per cent it was up until May.

Already, the rise in interest rates has pushed house prices down in most major cities as borrowers stare down the barrel of higher monthly payments.

PropTrack’s Home Price Index shows a national decline of 1.66 per cent in prices since March, but some regions have seen much sharper falls.

“As repayments become more expensive with rising interest rates, housing affordability will decline, prices pushing further down,” PropTrack senior economist Eleanor Creagh said.

There were 1080 auctions across the country on Saturday with 51.3 per cent sold, according to preliminary clearance rate data from PropTrack.

Melbourne saw 364 auctions with a clearance rate of 59.1 per cent, while Sydney had 354 auctions with a clearance rate of 48.9 per cent.

“It was a quiet week for auctions across the country,” Ms Creagh said.

“Although, clearance rates ticked up in Brisbane, Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide and Perth despite the third consecutive outsized rate rise delivered last week which brought the cash rate to the highest it’s been in six years. We are perhaps reaching a point where vendor price expectations have lowered after several months of price falls in some parts of the country, so more properties are clearing at auction.”

Ms Creagh added that buyers were also aware that borrowing power would be “further constrained with rates continuing to rise and so some are taking advantage of the increased choice available now”.

“New listings have remained strong and although prices are falling, there is lots of choice for buyers,” she said.

“That said, sales volumes are slowing as housing market conditions have moderated with rising rates.”

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RBA interest rates: Westpac decreases fixed rates as three big banks pass on full 0.50 percentage point rate hike

Westpac Bank has made a surprising move, choosing to spare some customers from escalating price hike pain.

The big bank has announced it will be decreasing its four-year owner occupied fixed interest rate by one per cent, down to 4.99.

Westpac is the third of the big banks to announce its rate changes following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to increase the official cash rate by 0.50% per annum (pa) on Tuesday.

The big bank has unsurprisingly followed its rivals the Commonwealth Bank and ANZ in increasing its variable home loan interest rates.

The interest rate changes will come into effect for new and existing home loan variable rate products on Thursday, August 18.

Earlier today, ANZ joined CBA in announcing it will be passing on the hike to variable rate mortgages and one savings account by the full 0.50 percentage points.

The major bank said its up-scaled up mortgage rates will come into effect for both new and existing customers from Friday, August 12.

The lowest variable rate will now be increased to 3.69 per cent – ​​just under that of CBA, which pumped up its lowest rate to 3.79 per cent.

Both rates are at three-year highs.

The ANZ decision also included increasing the rate on its new ANZ Plus Save account by 0.50 percentage points to 2.50 per cent for balances up to $250,000, which will come into place on Monday.

The move came just hours after Australia’s biggest bank, the Commonwealth Bank, announced it will pass on the full 0.50 percentage point hike to its variable home loan customers and some savings customers.

CBA will bring its occupier principal and interest standard variable home loans rate to 5.8 per cent.

Uncharacteristically, Australia’s other big banks have been slow off the blocks following the RBA’s decision on Tuesday, with CBA’s competitors Westpac, NAB and ANZ yet to make their announcements.

Mortgage rates for new and existing customers at CBA will rise by 0.50 percentage points on August 12, with investor rates rising to 6.38 per cent.

Research director at RateCity.com.au Sally Tindall said while the CBA’s decision comes as no surprise, for customers who are already feeling the heat, this fourth hike is a “difficult pill to swallow”.

“From next week, CBA’s basic variable rate will hit a three-year high of 3.79 per cent – ​​a huge increase from three months ago when it was just 2.19 per cent,” she said.

For an owner-occupier with $500,000 debt and 25 years remaining, the 0.5 percentage point hike means they will see their monthly repayments rise by $140.

To ease the strain, Commonwealth Bank is cutting its lowest four-year fixed rate to 4.99 per cent – ​​a drop of 1.60 percentage points.

This special rate, which comes into play on Friday, is strictly for owner-occupiers paying principal and interest on a package rate ($395 annual fee) for a limited time.

While Ms Tindall said the “whopping cut” will make it the lowest in its category, she warned it may not necessarily be a good idea.

“People should think carefully about whether they want to lock up their mortgage for the next four years because there can be significant consequences if they decide to break their loan,” she said.

For those with a NetBank Saver account, who will see the full rate hike, the research director said an ongoing rate of just 0.85 still won’t cut it.

“In this market, where we could see ongoing rates over 3 per cent, these savers are still getting paid peanuts,” she said.

But Ms Tindall said there are signs things could be turning around.

“On Tuesday, Macquarie announced it was making significant cuts to its fixed rates and now CBA is following suit,” she said.

“We expect this will trigger further fixed rate cuts from other lenders in response to both evolving market expectations and competition among the banks.”

Read related topics:westpac

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