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Biden, WH claims US has ‘zero inflation’ despite high rate

President Biden tried to claim Wednesday that the US had “zero inflation” in July hours after federal Consumer Price Index data showed annual inflation dipping only slightly to 8.5%, which outraged Republicans and other critics who pointed out it’s still near a four-decade high .

The latest figures reflected a demand-driven decline in fuel prices — including gasoline, which hit a record national average of $5 per gallon in mid-June before sliding to a still-high $4 average today — that offset increases in the cost of food, rent and other goods and services.

“I just want to say a number: zero,” Biden said in the White House East Room before signing legislation granting greater medical and disability benefits to veterans suffering illnesses linked to inhaling toxic smoke.

“Today, we received news that our economy had 0% inflation in the month of July — 0%,” Biden said. “Here’s what that means: while the price of some things went up — went up last month, the price of other things went down by the same amount. The result? Zero inflation last month.

US PresidentJoe Biden
President Joe Biden insists the US is undergoing “zero inflation” in spite of federal data showing its more than eight percent.
REUTERS/Kevin Lamarques

“But people are still hurting,” the president went on, before repeating: “But 0% inflation last month.”

Biden then proceeded to accidentally step on his own message by urging Congress to pass the Senate-approved Inflation Reduction Act, which he said would keep inflation “from getting better,” a view advanced by Republicans, before correcting himself to say “from getting worse.” .”

Biden’s rosy spin on the latest inflation report was quickly called out as misleading by critics, especially after White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre tweeted: “We just received news that our economy had 0% inflation in July. While the price of some things went up, the price of others, like gas, clothing, and more, dropped.”

“The Biden Administration has a tortured relationship with math,” joked Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-NC) on Twitter.

The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index shows inflation remains at a four-decade high at 8.5 percent.
The Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index shows inflation remains at a four-decade high at 8.5 percent.
New York Post Illustration

“Ridiculous BS from the White House,” tweeted Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). “There’s 8.5% inflation and basically everything anyone ever buys went up in price. This is just cruel gaslighting from the Biden admin.”

“Either the White House doesn’t understand what inflation is or they just don’t care,” said Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.). “That doesn’t change the pain and hardship that Americans are enduring because of their failed policies.”

“It’s a bogus math trick. This is the overall one-month index change. Overall that means that the big drop in fuel oil and gas (following previous massive monthly increases) swamped the huge increases everywhere else,” tweeted Jeffrey Tucker, president of the Brownstone Institute think tank.

“Using the same tactic, you could also observe a one-month 19.2% increase in electricity! But of course we would not do that because that’s dumb,” Tucker added. “The actual increase is 15.2% which we get from calculating year over year.”

John Cooper, director of media and public relations at the conservative Heritage Foundation, tweeted, “Joe Biden claims, multiple times, that there was ‘zero inflation’ in July. Absolutely false. Year-over-year inflation was 8.5% in July.”

The Bureau of Labor statistics laid the data out in black and white — reporting the highest annual jump in food prices since the 1970s, with a 1.3% bump in at-home food costs from June to July and a 10.9% food-cost jump in the past year.

“The all items less food and energy index rose 5.9 percent over the last 12 months,” the official report said, referring to so-called “core inflation.” “The energy index increased 32.9 percent for the 12 months ending July, a smaller increase than the 41.6-percent increase for the period ending June. The food index increased 10.9 percent over the last year, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending May 1979.”

Consumers fill up at a Shell gas station July 13, 2022, in Miami Beach, Fla.
National gas prices still remain at $4 a gallon or more.
AP Photo/Marta Lavandier, File

Overall annual inflation was 9.1% in June, the highest rate since 1981. Critics blame Biden’s policies, including large spending bills, while the White House has blamed an array of other factors — including COVID-19, supply chain bottlenecks and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Federal Reserve has a target of about 2% annual inflation and has been increasing interest rates this year in an attempt to tamp down price increases.

The pending Inflation Reduction Act, which the House is expected to pass as early as Friday, provides nearly $400 billion for environmental programs, including tax credits of up to $7,000 to buy electric vehicles, and roughly $64 billion to extend more generous COVID-19- it was Obamacare subsidies.

Senator Ted Cruz speaks
Sen. Ted Cruz accused the White House of “cruel gaslighting” on Americans.
Lev Radin/Pacific Press/Shutterstock

The new spending is offset by new taxes on corporations, including a new 15% corporate minimum tax, increased IRS enforcement and by allowing Medicare to directly negotiate drug prices.

Republicans argue new taxes may result in higher consumer costs and point to independent analysis that says the bill won’t reduce inflation.

“The Orwellian named ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ will do no such thing, as a number of prominent experts and economic policy groups have indicated,” Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said after the bill passed the Senate. “The Penn Wharton Budget Model, the Tax Foundation, and the Congressional Budget Office all found the bill won’t lower inflation and may make it worse. The IRS would more than double in size, unleashing 87,000 new enforcement agents on American families… [and the] nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation says that 78% to 90% of the revenue raised from misreported income would likely come from those making under $200,000.”

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Hawaii is the ‘perfect place to retire by the beach,’ says millionaire—but there are 3 big downsides

In 2012, at 34 years old, I left my investment banking job and retired early with a net worth of $3 million. Currently, I live in San Francisco with my wife and two young children.

But since 1977, I’ve regularly traveled back and forth to Hawaii, where my parents have been retired for 15 years. They have a simple life with a modest budget, living off retirement savings and a government pension — thanks to the three decades they spent working in the US Foreign Service.

Seeing my parents live their dream, we want to follow suit. Our plan is to move to Hawaii by 2025. Between my parents’ experience and my own, I’ve learned a lot about the ins and outs of retiring in Hawaii.

Our consensus it’s the perfect place to retire by the beach — although there are still a few downsides to keep in mind.

How much money do you need to retire in Hawaii?

The downsides of retiring in Hawaii

Before you start your beach retirement plan, beware of these three biggest downsides first:

1. High cost of housing

As of June 2022, the median single-family home price in Honolulu is $1,050,000. Meanwhile, the median price for a condo on Oahu, which is considered a great place to retire on a budget, is currently $535,000 — up 16% from June 2021.

If you want to retire in Hawaii, consider buying a small condo or rent, rather than purchasing a single-family home. The average rent for a 594 square foot apartment is roughly $2,042, according to RentCafe.

2. Expensive groceries and gas

According to a 2021 report by the Missouri Economic Research and Information Center, Hawaii’s grocery prices are the highest in the nation.

For example, I’ve paid $8.99 for a gallon of whole milk on Oahu, whereas in San Francisco, it’s about $6. And while Hawaiian-grown mangoes are delicious, they can cost about $6 each!

Further, if you like to drive, Hawaii has unusually high gas prices. The average price per gallon in the state today is $5.41 and is continuing to rise, according to AAA, while the national average is $4.03.

3. You may feel claustrophobic

It only takes about four hours to drive around the 597 square miles of Oahu. Although the island does hold about one million people, in my experience, it can still feel small.

And with the pandemic continuing to make air and ship travel unappealing, it is possible that you could feel a bit stuck at times, without those options at your disposal.

The benefits of retiring in Hawaii

Yes, it’s expensive. But if you’re curious what it could be like to retire in Hawaii, here are some surprising perks:

1. Less stress and top health care

Hawaii was ranked second in terms of happiness and well-being in a 2021 study from health care company Sharecare.

My parents worked in Washington DC, Paris, Guangzhou, Kobe, Taipei and other big cities before retiring in Honolulu. They’ve found their Hawaiian lifestyle to be incredibly relaxing compared to all the other cities they’ve lived in.

2. Top-rated healthcare

The United Health Foundation also ranks Hawaii as the third healthiest state in the country. And according to US News’ list of Best States for Health Care, Hawaii takes the top spot.

I’m not surprised. Hawaii has beautiful weather nearly year-round, public beaches and parks, a variety of locally grown and raised food, and great access to preventive medical and dental treatment.

If you’re looking for a more healthy and active lifestyle, you can certainly find it in Hawaii.

3. ‘Ohana’ means family

An important part of Hawaiian culture is the care and nurturing of family and friends, or “ohana.” I’ve observed that nearly everywhere you go, whether it’s to a restaurant or to the mall, things are set up to be a family-friendly experience.

Plus, it’s not uncommon to have multiple generations under one roof in Hawaii. While my wife, children and I probably won’t live in my parents’ house, we hope to rent or buy nearby.

4. Tremendous diversity

Hawaii topped the list of states that have the most diverse population in the country, coming ahead of California and Nevada, according to data from the US Census Bureau.

5. Decent tax advantages

Hawaii ranks as having one of the lowest property tax rates in the country, at an average of only 0.28%. If you have a Federal pension, it’s exempt from state income tax. And the sales tax rate is a reasonable 4% to 4.5%, versus 7.25% to 8.25% in California.

However, Hawaii also has one of the highest state income tax rates, topping out at 11% if you make over $200,000. If you make between $48,001 and $150,000, you pay a state income tax rate of 8.25%.

Why I want to retire in Honolulu

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US

Market outlook ‘too volatile’ to chase stock, bond rallies, asset manager says

Investors should eschew chasing recent rallies in stocks and bonds given the current economic uncertainty, according to the chief investment officer of Swiss asset manager Prime Partners.

Francois Savary said it was enormously difficult to have clear economic visibility due to the particulars of the current investment cycle, such as the Covid-19 recovery and the Ukraine war.

“One of the key factors that supported the rally, which was a strong bond market during the month of July, has disappeared to a certain extent,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Monday.

Additionally, while the second-quarter earnings season has been robust so far, a key issue looming is how many analysts will review their third-quarter earnings forecasts. “So we consider that the two elements that can support a further rally in the equity market are not clearly there,” Savary said.

As such, he said investors should “absolutely not” be chasing the rally in equities that has been underway since mid-July. The S&P 500 is up almost 13% from its July lows, closing at 4,140 on Monday, but remains down since the start of the year.

On bonds, Savary said, “we all know it’s very difficult to make money on the bonds side. I would not chase the bond rally that we experienced over the last two months.”

Corporate, government and high-yield bond funds saw sizeable inflows last month. The US 10 Year Treasury yield — which moves inversely prices — has slipped to trade around 2.76% on Tuesday after topping 3.48% in mid-June.

Investors in global markets are navigating a whirlwind of inflationary pressures, recession risks and central bank tightening cycles, with even juggernauts such as Berkshire Hathaway and SoftBank posting investment losses in the June quarter.

Stock picks and investing trends from CNBC Pro:

“It’s a very difficult market environment,” Savary told CNBC. “You need to have some hedge funds [and] some kind of decorrelating strategy that are in your portfolio.”

Keeping some investment in stocks will provide partial protection from inflation, he said, however investors will need to be tactical and observe the latest economic figures.

Meanwhile cash, Savary said, is useful for providing flexibility.

“It’s interesting to have some cash to check because everything is possible in this kind of environment. We could have a recession, but you could also get a slow but satisfactory rate of growth in the coming 12 months,” he said.

For now, Savary said the market has priced in a recession. “But the numbers are not telling you that there is a recession, so we need to be nimble and to check what is happening week-by-week and month-by-month, and we should have more visibility by the early fall, in the US in particular.”

US gross domestic product fell for the first two quarters of the year, meeting a common definition of a recession, although the NBER defines it differently and the White House insists the US is not currently in recession.

Investors will be looking to US inflation data out Wednesday for further clues on the state of the world’s largest economy. It comes after the jobs report for last month showed unexpected strength and increased expectations of a 75 basis points rate hike in September.

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Senate parliamentarian OKs most of Dems’ drug price controls

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Senate parliamentarian narrowed Democrats’ plan for curbing drug prices but left it largely intact Saturday, Democrats said, as party leaders prepared to start moving their sprawling economic bill through the chamber.

Elizabeth MacDonough, the chamber’s rules arbiter, also gave the green light to clean air provisions in the measure, including one limiting electric vehicle tax credits to those assembled in the US, Democrats said.

The nonpartisan official’s rulings came as Democrats planned to begin Senate votes Saturday on their wide-ranging package addressing climate change, energy, health care costs, taxes and even deficit reduction. Party leaders have said they believe they now have the unity they will need to move the legislation through the 50-50 Senate, with Vice President Kamala Harris’ tiebreaking vote.

MacDonough said provisions must be removed that would force drugmakers to pay rebates if their prices rise above inflation for products they sell to private insurers. Pharmaceutical companies would have to pay those penalties, though, if their prices for drugs bought by Medicare rise too high.

Dropping penalties on drugmakers for increasing prices on private insurers was a clear setback for Democrats. The decision reduces incentives on pharmaceutical companies to restrain what they charge, increasing costs for patients.

Erasing that language will cut the $288 billion in 10-year savings that the Democrats’ overall drug curbs were estimated to generate — a reduction of perhaps tens of billions of dollars, analysts have said. But other restrictions on rising pharmaceutical costs survived, including letting Medicare negotiate costs for the drugs it buys, capping seniors’ out-of-pocket expenses and providing free vaccines.

The surviving pharmaceutical provisions left Democrats promoting the drug language as a boon to consumers at a time when voters are infuriated by the worst inflation in four decades.

“This is a major victory for the American people,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, DN.Y., said in a statement. “While there was one unfortunate ruling in that the inflation rebate is more limited in scope, the overall program remains intact and we are one step closer to finally taking on Big Pharma and lowering Rx drug prices for millions of Americans.”

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden, D-Ore., said that while he was “disappointed” the penalties for higher drug prices for privately insured consumers were dropped, “the legislation nevertheless puts a substantial check on Big Pharma’s ability to price gouge.”

The parliamentarian’s decision came after a 10-day period that saw Democrats resurrect top components of President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda after they were seemingly dead. In rapid-fire deals with Democrats’ two most unpredictable senators—first conservative Joe Manchin of West Virginiathen Arizona centrist Kyrsten Sinema — Schumer pieced together a broad package that, while a fraction of earlier, larger versions that Manchin derailed, would give the party an achievement against the backdrop of this fall’s congressional elections.

The parliamentarian signed off on a fee on excess emissions of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas contributor, from oil and gas drilling. She also let stand environmental grants to minority communities and other initiatives for reducing carbon emissionssaid Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Chairman Thomas Carper, D-Del.

She approved a provision requiring union-scale wages to be paid if energy efficiency projects are to qualify for tax credits, and another that would limit electric vehicle tax credits to those cars and trucks assembled in the United States.

The overall measure faces unanimous Republican opposition. But assuming Democrats fight off a nonstop “vote-a-rama” of amendments — many designed by Republicans to derail the measure — they should be able to muscle the measure through the Senate.

House passage could come when that chamber returns briefly from recess on Friday.

“What will vote-a-rama be like. It will be like hell,” Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, the top Republican on the Senate Budget Committee, said Friday of the approaching GOP amendments. He said that in supporting the Democratic bill, Manchin and Sinema “are empowering legislation that will make the average person’s life more difficult” by forcing up energy costs with tax increases and making it harder for companies to hire workers.

The bill offers spending and tax incentives for moving toward cleaner fuels and supporting coal with assistance for reducing carbon emissions. Expiring subsidies that help millions of people afford private insurance premiums would be extended for three years, and there is $4 billion to help Western states combat drought.

There would be a new 15% minimum tax on some corporations that earn over $1 billion annually but pay far less than the current 21% corporate tax. There would also be a 1% tax on companies that buy back their own stock, swapped in after Sinema refused to support higher taxes on private equity firm executives and hedge fund managers. The IRS budget would be pumped up to strengthen its tax collections.

While the bill’s final costs are still being determined, it overall would spend more than $300 billion over 10 years to slow climate change, which analysts say would be the country’s largest investment in that effort, and billions more on health care. It would raise more than $700 billion in taxes and from government drug cost savings, leaving about $300 billion for deficit reduction — a modest bite out of projected 10-year shortfalls of many trillions of dollars.

Democrats are using special procedures that would let them pass the measure without having to reach the 60-vote majority that legislation often needs in the Senate.

It is the parliamentarian’s job to decide whether parts of legislation must be dropped for violating those rules, which include a requirement that provisions be chiefly aimed at affecting the federal budget, not imposing new policy.

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Associated Press writer Matthew Daly contributed to this report.

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US

Is the economy in a recession? Top economists weigh in

‘We should have an objective definition’

Officially, the NBER defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.” In fact, the latest quarterly gross domestic product report, which tracks the overall health of the economy, showed a second consecutive contraction this year.

Still, if the NBER ultimately declares a recession, it could be months from now, and it will factor in other considerations, as well, such as employment and personal income.

What really matters is their paychecks aren’t reaching as far.

Thomas Philipson

former acting chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers

That puts the country in a gray area, Philipson said.

“Why do we let an academic group decide?” he said. “We should have an objective definition, not the opinion of an academic committee.”

Consumers are behaving like we’re in a recession

For now, consumers should be focusing on energy price shocks and overall inflation, Philipson added. “That’s impacting everyday Americans.”

To that end, the Federal Reserve is making aggressive moves to temper surging inflation, but “it will take a while for it to work its way through,” he said.

“Powell is raising the federal funds rate, and he’s leaving himself open to raise it again in September,” said Diana Furchtgott-Roth, an economics professor at George Washington University and former chief economist at the Labor Department. “He’s saying all the right things.”

However, consumers “are paying more for gas and food so they have to cut back on other spending,” Furchtgott-Roth said.

“Negative news continues to mount up,” she added. “We are definitely in a recession.”

What comes next: ‘The path to a soft landing’

The direction of the labor market will be key in determining the future state of the economy, both experts said.

Decreases in consumption come first, Philipson noted. “If businesses can’t sell as much as they used to because consumers aren’t buying as much, then they lay off workers.”

On the upside, “we have twice the number of job openings as unemployed people so employers are not going to be so quick to lay people off,” according to Furchtgott-Roth.

“That’s the way to a soft landing,” she said.

3 ways to prepare your finances for a recession

While the impact of record inflation is being felt across the board, every household will experience a pullback to a different degree, depending on their income, savings and job security.

Still, there are a few ways to prepare for a recession that are universal, according to Larry Harris, the Fred V. Keenan Chair in Finance at the University of Southern California Marshall School of Business and a former chief economist of the Securities and Exchange Commission .

Here’s his advice:

  1. Streamline your spending. “If they expect they will be forced to cut back, the sooner they do it, the better off they’ll be,” Harris said. That may mean cutting a few expenses now that you just want and really don’t need, such as the subscription services that you signed up for during the Covid pandemic. If you don’t use it, lose it.
  2. Avoid variable-rate debts. Most credit cards have a variable annual percentage rate, which means there’s a direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark, so anyone who carries a balance will see their interest charges jump with each move by the Fed. Homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages or home equity lines of credit, which are pegged to the prime rate, will also be affected.

    That makes this a particularly good time to identify the loans you have outstanding and see if refinancing makes sense. “If there’s an opportunity to refinance into a fixed rate, do it now before rates rise further,” Harris said.

  3. Consider stashing extra cash in Series I bonds. These inflation-protected assets, backed by the federal government, are nearly risk-free and pay a 9.62% annual rate through October, the highest yield on record.

    Although there are purchase limits and you can’t tap the money for at least one year, you’ll score a much better return than a savings account or a one-year certificate of deposit, which pays less than 2%. (Rates on online savings accounts, money market accounts and certificates of deposit are all poised to go up but it will be a while before those returns compete with inflation.)

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Business

Here’s why your morning coffee costs more and why the price could keep going up

If your morning cup of coffee has left a sour taste in your mouth lately, it may not be the beans, but the price tag that’s causing you to feel bitter.

The price of a flat white – and any cafe-made coffee – has been forced up not just by the cost of international freight and wages, but incidentals such as the wholesale price of caramel syrup.

What’s the average price of a coffee now?

Colombia Coffee Co’s Daniel Mejia owns multiple cafes and is a wholesaler of coffee beans on Queensland’s Sunshine Coast.

He said people should expect to pay between $4.50 and $5.50 for an average 250ml (8oz) coffee without fancy milk or extra shots of espresso.

“When you pay $5.50 for an eight-ounce coffee, then the expectation that you should have as a customer is that it will be a top-class coffee,” he said.

“You pretty much want to walk out of that shop, raving about the coffee you just had.

“A coffee that used to cost $5 is now probably $6.”

Man making coffee at machine
Mr Mejia says he’s sensitive about price increases because he sees coffee as a way for people to connect.(ABC Sunshine Coast: Owen Jacques)

He said every single element of coffee making is now more expensive: the beans, the electricity used to heat water, the maintenance of the machines, the milk and any alternative to milk.

“But if you get a flat white with an extra shot on soy, with a shot of caramel, then the soy has increased as well.

“The shot of caramel that used to be 50 cents, is probably 70 or 80 cents.”

Perfect storm in your coffee cup

Bruno Maiolo has headed the Australian Specialty Coffee Association for 20 years and runs C4 Coffee in Melbourne.

Man with short dark hair, looking inside bag of coffee beans
Mr Maiolo says worldwide factors are affecting coffee prices in Australia.(Supplied: Australian Specialty Coffee Association)

He said $5 was the right price to pay for an average, medium coffee that would have cost $3.80 a year ago.

But while it was more expensive, cafes were still not passing on the full costs.

“Just on supply and trade issues, a cup of coffee should really be closer to $7 if everyone was to maintain the same margin they’d been enjoying pre-COVID.”

“[The price] will still creep up. It just has to because you have to spend on the costs.”

Mr Maiolo said many factors both around the world and in Australia were coming together to push up the price of a barista-made cappuccino.

He said the biggest contributor was COVID, which not only forced farms in many countries to shut down, but also caused a huge number of deaths, which had an impact on their workforces.

Hand of barista pouring a latte coffee with pattern.
The cost of a cup of coffee could keep creeping up as cafes and wholesalers are forced to spend on costs.(ABC News: Alkira Reinfrank )

When the beans were sent across the world in a shipping container, that too was costing more.

Mr Maiolo said the cost of a transporting a container had risen six-fold from $2,500 to about $15,000.

On top of these factors, Brazil – a major coffee-growing region – endured a massive frost last year which meant fewer beans were picked.

close-up of coffee beans in roaster
Mr Maiolo says COVID, a shortage of workers in foreign farms and the cost of freight are all pushing up the cost of beans.(ABC Central West: Xanthe Gregory)

With increased demand and fewer beans, the price went up even further.

Mr Maiolo said none of these factors were likely to resolve any time soon.

“The price will stay high for quite some time, at least the next sort of 12 to 18 months, before we can start getting some sort of normality in terms of freight and logistics,” he said.

Making coffee ‘more than business’

Back on the Sunshine Coast and Mr Mejia said while he felt he had no choice but to increase the price of his coffee, it was a painful decision to make.

He said the survival of his business was not the only thing on his mind.

“Coffee is the social lubricant that keeps people flowing around and connecting with each other.

“We are the keepers of that, and we embrace that role beyond our business and more like a community role.”

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