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Economist Saul Eslake predicts Australia’s interest rate growth will slow

Economist Saul Eslake predicts Australia's interest rate growth will slow

There is a glimmer of hope for Australians fearing more interest rate pain, with a leading economist predicting the massive hikes could soon start to ease.

On August 2, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates for a fourth consecutive month, bringing them to a six-year high of 1.85 per cent.

It was also the third month in a row the cash rate rose by 0.5 per cent, the fastest interest rate growth Australia has experienced in almost 30 years.

The RBA has made it clear interest rates will continue to go up as it attempts to bring soaring inflation levels down.

But independent economist Saul Eslake, former Bank of America Merrill Lynch chief economist (Australia and New Zealand), believes interest rates will not rise as high as some are predicting.

“I think the Reserve Bank is of a mind to get it (interest rates) up to about 2.5 per cent by the end of the year. That could be either 2.35 per cent or 2.6 per cent,” he told NCA NewsWire.

“Then they will be able to pause to assess the impact of what they by then will have done.

“In my view, that may well be enough to slow the economy sufficiently.”

Mr Eslake said raising the cash rate to 2.35 or 2.6 per cent should be enough to achieve the RBA’s goal of slowing down the growth of domestic spending to counter inflation.

“As customers do have to start paying for the rate increases that have been announced, you should see spending slow quite a bit,” he said.

“The other part of the answer is that there is now starting to be some evidence to suggest that the global sources of inflationary pressure have peaked.”

Mr Eslake’s projection goes against what the country’s big four banks have previously predicted after they all unanimously forecast more pain for Australians.

NAB expected the cash rate to sit at 2.85 per cent by November, while Westpac forecasted it would rise to 3.35 per cent by February next year.

But Westpac’s forecast was not as dire as ANZ’s, who expected the cash rate to rise above three per cent before the Christmas holidays.

“Our expectation is that the RBA will deliver this via four more successive 50 basis point rate hikes in August, September, October and November,” ANZ’s head of Australian economics, David Plank, wrote in July.

“This 200 basis points of additional tightening sees the cash rate target at 3.35 per cent by November.”

The CBA forecasted the cash rate will sit at 2.60 percentage points by November.

Mr Eslake acknowledged and did not dismiss these projections, but expressed concern over what it could mean for the Australian economy.

“My view would be that if the Reserve Bank does end up going straight to 3 per cent or 3.5 per cent… there will be a much greater risk of a sharper slowdown in the Australian economy,” he said.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe has previously said he expects they will take further action on interest rates, but indicated those changes are not “pre-set” and subject to incoming data at the time.

“The Board expects to take further steps in the process of normalizing monetary conditions over the months ahead, but it is not on a pre-set path,” he said in a statement following the August hike.

“The size and timing of future interest rate increases will be guided by the incoming data and the Board’s assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labor market.”

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Business

Reserve Bank wary of cautious consumers amid falling house prices, as global economy sours

RBA building

The Reserve Bank has slashed its forecasts for economic growth as rate rises, house price falls and a souring global economy weigh on Australia’s outlook.

The bank has dramatically scaled back its forecasts for household consumption, which accounts for about 60 per cent of Australia’s economy.

“Higher consumer prices, rising interest rates and declining housing prices are expected to weigh on growth in private spending, at the same time as growth in public demand slows,” the bank noted in its latest Statement on Monetary Policy.

The bank slashed its consumption forecast for the middle of next year from 4.4 per cent to 2.8 per cent, echoing the results of surveys that show consumer sentiment approaching recessionary levels.

Higher interest rates are expected to be a major factor behind tightened belts, with the RBA basing its forecasts on an assumption that its cash rate would hit 3 per cent by the end of the year – up from 1.85 per cent currently – before falling back a little by the end of 2024.

It is important to note that this is not an RBA forecast for the cash rate, but an assumption based on market pricing and economist forecasts.

The outlook for Australia’s gross domestic product (GDP) has been cut by a full percentage point from around 4.2 per cent for December 2022 to 3.2 per cent.

Those cuts continue for the rest of the forecasting period, with the economy expected to grow just 1.75 per cent for the next two years.

Falling house prices, combined with the previous construction boom inspired by ultra-low interest rates and the previous government’s HomeBuilder grant, will result in dwelling investment falling sharply (-4.8 per cent) over 2024.

State and federal governments are also not expected to provide any assistance, with expectations that public spending will shrink next year.

Real wages to keep shrinking

Despite the slowdown in GDP growth, the RBA expects the jobs market to remain strong.

It is now predicting that unemployment will bottom out at about 3.25 per cent later this year before gradually creeping back up to 4 per cent by the end of 2024, as economic growth slows and migration flows start to ease some labor shortages.

Despite this leading to a modest pick-up in wage rises to about 3.5 per cent next year, the Reserve Bank still expects real wages to fall for at least the next year – that is, prices will keep rising faster than pay packets.

After peaking at 7.75 per cent by the end of this year, inflation is still expected to be about 6.2 per cent by the middle of next year, and 4.3 per cent at the end of 2023.

A key reason for this will be further pain for electricity and gas users.

“Contacts within the bank’s liaison program generally expect further significant increases in retail electricity prices in 2023,” the RBA observed.

“This is largely because the recently announced regulated price increases for 2022 were decided before the latest run-up in wholesale prices and because wholesale prices are expected to remain elevated.”

Consumers can also expect to see more manufacturers and retailers passing the increased cost of their inputs on in retail prices.

“A significant share of firms in the bank’s liaison program have increased prices or expect to do so over the coming months as a result of earlier increases in input costs,” the report noted.

“Some upstream cost pressures are showing signs of easing but it will take some time before this affects prices paid by consumers.”

Risks ‘skewed to the downside’

However, even those downgraded forecasts remain vulnerable to a weaker global economy.

The IMF recently slashed its global economic forecasts, while the Bank of England overnight warned of a long recession in the UK even as it raised interest rates there by half a percentage point.

“The risks to the global outlook are skewed to the downside,” the RBA warned.

“The synchronized nature of the tightening in monetary policy globally could prove quite contractionary, and is occurring at a time when fiscal policy is offering less support.”

Closer to home, the Reserve Bank has an eye on Australia’s biggest trading partner, where economic growth has virtually ground to a halt in recent months.

“Restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 in China led to an unexpectedly large contraction there in the June quarter; further outbreaks could both weigh on growth in China and disrupt global supply chains,” the bank cautioned.

“The Chinese economy is also contending with weak property market conditions and increasing levels of distress among developers.”

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Australian house prices: 300 suburbs that have significantly dropped in value

Australian house prices: 300 suburbs that have significantly dropped in value

As skyrocketing interest rates smash the Australian housing market, a dozen suburbs have already seen property prices fall by more than $500,000 since March.

PropTrack’s automated valuation model (AVM) data show more than 300 suburbs across the country where dwelling values ​​have experienced six-figure falls over the quarter.

In percentage terms, the worst-performing suburb in the country was South Hedland in WA’s Pilbara region, where units dropped by 24.81 per cent to a median value of $213,791 in June 2022 – a loss of more than $70,000.

That was closely followed by Booval in Queensland, where unit prices were down 24.64 per cent, or more than $121,000, to $370,231.

But it was wealthy suburbs in the capital cities that experienced the largest falls in dollar terms, with parts of Sydney’s northern beaches and eastern suburbs, Melbourne’s Mornington Peninsula, as well as inner-city Perth and Canberra all experiencing falls in excess of half a million dollars.

Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s eastern suburbs home of Point Piper recorded the biggest fall in dollar terms, with units there losing nearly $715,000 in value – a 14.82 per cent fall from $4.82 million to $4.11 million.

Manly came in second place with losses of nearly $680,000 in house prices, representing a 13.8 per cent fall from $4.92 million to $4.25 million.

Ingleside on Sydney’s northern beaches saw house prices fall nearly $610,000 to $2.77 million, while Flinders in Melbourne suffered a $600,000 fall to $2.51 million.

Other suburbs where house prices fell by more than $500,000 include Clontarf, Dover Heights, North Bondi, Bronte, Rose Bay and Bondi Beach in Sydney, Peppermint Grove in Perth and Griffith in Canberra.

Close behind in the $400,000 range were the likes of Double Bay and Tamarama in Sydney, Red Hill – both in Victoria and Canberra – and Mulgoa at the foot of the Blue Mountains.

“Price falls are largely being led by the ‘high end’ of the market and higher value suburbs,” said PropTrack senior economist Eleanor Creagh.

“Manly and Tamarama in Sydney have all posted declines in quarterly values.

“Previously popular suburbs in the Central Coast and Melbourne’s Mornington Peninsula have also seen values ​​decline.

“It’s often the case that the upper end of the market experiences larger price declines, and at the moment it’s the suburbs that are home to more expensive properties that are seeing bigger price falls than more affordable properties.”

It’s not all bad news for homeowners, however.

House prices in some suburbs are still rising, led by Balmain East in Sydney’s inner west, which saw house prices rise more than $329,000 over the quarter to $3.48 million.

New Farm in Brisbane was second with house price growth of more than $295,000 to $2.65 million, followed by Coledale in NSW’s Illawarra region, which was up nearly $289,000 to $2.47 million.

Other suburbs where dwelling values ​​rose more than $200,000 were Newcastle East, The Rocks and Waterloo in Sydney, and Brisbane’s Bowen Hills, Tenerife, Highgate Hill and West End.

“While the current cycle of exceptional price growth is winding down Australia-wide, there are some parts of the country bucking the falling price trend,” said Ms Creagh.

“Parts of Brisbane, Adelaide and regional Australia are proving more resilient.

“With the pandemic driving a boom in remote working, housing markets in parts of regional Australia have emerged, with sea and tree changers looking for lifestyle locations, larger homes, and beachside living.”

The ongoing low supply of properties available for sale, combined with relative affordability advantages driving heightened demand, are causing prices to continue to rise in some regional areas or only just beginning to fail as the impact of higher interest rates weighs on the market.

“As the home price cycle has matured and interest rates are now rising, some suburbs in previous regional hot spots on the Sunshine Coast, and in the Southern Highlands and Geelong regions are starting to see larger price falls, with affordability advantages having been eroded since the pandemic onset,” Ms Creagh said.

“Suburbs like Lorne, Sunshine Beach, Minyama and Noosa Heads have all seen quarterly declines in unit or house values.”

She added it was a similar picture in the capital cities, with markets that led the upswing like the “lifestyle and coastal locations of the northern beaches and eastern suburbs now seeing larger price falls”.

It comes after the Reserve Bank hiked interest rates for the fourth month in a row on Tuesday.

The 50 basis-point increase at the central bank’s August meeting brings the official cash rate to 1.85 per cent, up from the record low 0.1 per cent it was up until May.

Governor Philip Lowe said the RBA had made the decision to raise the rates in a bid to drive down the current 6.1 per cent inflation figure.

In a statement, he said the path to returning to inflation under 3 per cent while keeping the economy on an even keel was something that would take time.

“The path to achieve this is a narrow one and clouded in uncertainty, not least because of global developments,” Dr Lowe said.

“The outlook for global economic growth has been downgraded due to pressures on real incomes from higher inflation, the tightening of monetary policy in most countries, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the Covid containment measures in China. Today’s increase … is a further step in the normalization of monetary conditions in Australia.”

Already, the rise in interest rates has pushed house prices down in most major cities as borrowers stare down the barrel of higher monthly payments.

PropTrack’s Home Price Index shows a national decline of 1.66 per cent in prices since March, but some regions have seen much sharper falls.

“As repayments become more expensive with rising interest rates, housing affordability will decline, prices pushing further down,” Ms Creagh said earlier this week.

Last week, the Australia Institute’s chief economist, Richard Dennis, told NCA NewsWire the RBA was one of the biggest threats to the economy at the moment.

“If we keep increasing interest rates because inflation is higher than we’d like, we might cause a recession,” he said.

“Increasing interest rates won’t help us prepare for a slowing global economy … but they might actually further dampen the Australian economy.”

[email protected]

– with NCA NewsWire

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Business

CBA responds to RBA interest rate hike, ANZ, NAB, Westpac stay silent

CBA responds to RBA interest rate hike, ANZ, NAB, Westpac stay silent

Australia’s largest bank has finally responded to the interest rate rise two days after it was initially announced.

On Thursday morning, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia revealed it will pass the full cost of the rate hike onto customers.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked interest rates on Tuesday for the fourth consecutive month.

Australia’s central bank increased the interest rate by 50 basis points, or by 0.5 per cent, bringing the cash rate from 1.35 per cent to 1.85 per cent, largely in line with economist’s predictions.

Up until now Australia’s biggest four banks — The Commonwealth Bank (CBA), ANZ, NAB and Westpac — hadn’t made any changes in response to the latest rate hike.

But just before 10am, the CBA said variable home loans would increase by 0.5 per cent per year from August 12 while term deposits would kick in with the higher return from August 8.

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The CBA’s variable mortgages as well as term deposit accounts and its NetBank Saver accounts will be impacted by the change.

Owner occupiers and investors on variable rate home loans will have to fork out an extra 0.5 per cent in interest every year.

Term deposits and CBA’s savings account will also increase by 0.5 per cent/

The new term deposit rate will be available from 8 August, while the new NetBank Saver rate will take effect on August 12 along with home loans.

Group Executive, Retail Banking, Angus Sullivan, said: “We have been helping customers understand the changing rate environment and consider what it means for them, and we will continue to be there for them.”

Since May, the cash rate has risen by 1.75 percentage points, after four months of back-to-back increases by the central bank.

However, the CBA is so far the only one of the big players to respond, and that was nearly 48 hours later.

In stark contrast, within hours of the announcement, a smaller bank, Macquarie Bank passed on the rate rise almost straight away.

Macquarie Bank was the first bank to say it would increase variable mortgage rates by 0.5 per cent by August 12.

Rates on its savings and everyday transaction accounts also increased by 0.50 per cent.

The move impacts the estimated 2 million people who are customers of Macquarie Bank.

However, CBA, ANZ, NAB and Westpac have between 8.5 million to 17 million customers each, according to Statista.

Last month, Westpac gave customers the most amount of time to prepare for a change in its variable mortgages and also its savings rates, taking two weeks for the change to come into effect – although it announced the change within 24 hours.

The other three banks passed the change onto customers within 10 days after a swift response.

The August hike isn’t expected to be the last, with economists forecasting that interest rates could peak up to two per cent by the end of the year.

Tuesday’s rate rise means those paying off the average home loan of $500,000 will need to cough up an extra $140 a month.

Tuesday’s decision marks the first time the RBA has lifted the rates for four months in a row since the introduction of the two to three per cent inflation target in 1990 in a sign of the inflation and cost of living crisis across the country.

This follows last week’s increase in annual inflation, which hit 6.1 per cent, which was its highest level in 21 years since 2001.

Tuesday’s rate rise means those paying off the average home loan of $500,000 will need to cough up an extra $140 a month.

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Australia

Interest rates: RBA raises cash rate by 50 basis points to 1.85 per cent

Interest rates: RBA raises cash rate by 50 basis points to 1.85 per cent

For the fourth consecutive month the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has hiked interest rates as inflation runs rampant.

At 2.30pm during the RBA’s monthly meeting, it increased Australia’s interest rate by 50 basis points, or by 0.5 per cent.

The decision brought the cash rate from 1.35 per cent to 1.85 per cent, largely in line with economist’s predictions.

This marks the first time the RBA has lifted the rates for four months in a row since the introduction of the two to three per cent inflation target in 1990.

This follows last week’s increase in annual inflation, which hit 6.1 per cent, which was its highest level in 21 years since 2001.

Tuesday’s rate rise means those paying off the average home loan of $500,000 will need to cough up an extra $140 a month.

And the August hike isn’t expected to be the last, with economists forecasting that interest rates could peak up to two per cent by the end of the year.

As soon as news of the interest rate rise broke, Treasurer Jim Chalmers weighed in and acknowledged it was a tough time for Australian borrowers, saying the announcement would “sting”.

“It’s another difficult day for Australian homeowners with a mortgage,” he said.

“The independent ReserveBank has just announced its decision to increase interest rates by another 0.5 per cent, bringing the cash rate to 1.85 per cent.

“Australians knew this was coming, but it won’t make it any easier for them to handle.

This cycle of interest rate rises began before the election in response to inflationary pressures that began accelerating at the beginning of this year.

“Average homeowners with a $330,000 outstanding balance will have to find about $90 a month more for repayments as a consequence of this decision today, on top of around $220 extra in repayments since early May.

“For Australians with a $500,000 mortgage, it’s about an extra $140 a month, in addition to the extra $335 they’ve had to find since early May.

“As I said, Mr Speaker, this decision doesn’t come as a surprise. It’s not a shock to anybody, but it will still sting.

“Families will now have to make more hard decisions about how to balance the household budget in the face of other pressures like higher grocery prices and higher power prices and the costs of other essentials.”

‘Misleading’: Calls for bank boss to resign

Ahead of the interest rate rise, there were growing calls for the RBA’s board and its governor, Philip Lowe, to resign after a series of missteps.

Chief among them was the promise that interest rates wouldn’t rise until 2024 which one top economist said was “misleading” for borrowers.

Critics also pointed out that the rapid rate rises could inadvertently lead to a recession while at the same time inflation is running rampant.

Warren Hogan, chief economist at both ANZ and Credit Suisse, told The Daily Telegraph that the RBA was guilty of some “pretty bad errors” in recent months.

The RBA lowered the cash rate to 0.1 per cent at the end of 2020 amid the Covid-19 pandemic – the lowest it had ever been – and throughout the pandemic said they didn’t plan on raising the cash rates until 2024.

When it lifted the cash rate for the first time in May and then every month since, Mr Hogan said it was “misleading people, basically”.

He also said Australia’s central bank had taken on risky strategies including spending lots on insurance and sinking funds into a bonds program which had not paid off.

Mr Hogan, who was also the former principal adviser to federal treasury, said: “It’s unforgivable. I think they should resign – the whole board.”

Mr Lowe “should have the character to stand down,” Mr Hogan added.

RELATED: Find out how much the rate rise will cost you

Mr Lowe said the cash rate would remain at its record low of 0.1 per cent until at least 2024, but the rapid rise in inflation this year – caused in part by Russia’s war in Ukraine and supply chain issues on home soil – prompted the monthly hikes .

It comes as Australia’s cost of living crisis is worsening, making borrowers even more cash-strapped than usual.

In the last quarter, transport costs rose 13.1 per cent as the price of fuel rose to record levels for the fourth quarter in a row.

Meanwhile, grocery shopping is also causing hip pocket pain, with Australians outraged to find lettuce heads selling for $10 a pop and capsicums marked at $15 for a kilo.

Interest rates in Australia reached an all time high of 17.5 per cent in January 1990. Since then, they have averaged 3.93 per cent.

Before this year, the last time the RBA hiked up rates was in 2010. It has only been going down ever since.

As a result, more than one million home borrowers have never experienced an increase in mortgage rates, because they bought a home after 2010.

The official cash rate has been at a record low of 0.1 per cent since November 2020 in response to the Covid-19 pandemic until May 2022.

– with NCA NewsWire

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