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Economist Saul Eslake predicts Australia’s interest rate growth will slow

Economist Saul Eslake predicts Australia's interest rate growth will slow

There is a glimmer of hope for Australians fearing more interest rate pain, with a leading economist predicting the massive hikes could soon start to ease.

On August 2, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates for a fourth consecutive month, bringing them to a six-year high of 1.85 per cent.

It was also the third month in a row the cash rate rose by 0.5 per cent, the fastest interest rate growth Australia has experienced in almost 30 years.

The RBA has made it clear interest rates will continue to go up as it attempts to bring soaring inflation levels down.

But independent economist Saul Eslake, former Bank of America Merrill Lynch chief economist (Australia and New Zealand), believes interest rates will not rise as high as some are predicting.

“I think the Reserve Bank is of a mind to get it (interest rates) up to about 2.5 per cent by the end of the year. That could be either 2.35 per cent or 2.6 per cent,” he told NCA NewsWire.

“Then they will be able to pause to assess the impact of what they by then will have done.

“In my view, that may well be enough to slow the economy sufficiently.”

Mr Eslake said raising the cash rate to 2.35 or 2.6 per cent should be enough to achieve the RBA’s goal of slowing down the growth of domestic spending to counter inflation.

“As customers do have to start paying for the rate increases that have been announced, you should see spending slow quite a bit,” he said.

“The other part of the answer is that there is now starting to be some evidence to suggest that the global sources of inflationary pressure have peaked.”

Mr Eslake’s projection goes against what the country’s big four banks have previously predicted after they all unanimously forecast more pain for Australians.

NAB expected the cash rate to sit at 2.85 per cent by November, while Westpac forecasted it would rise to 3.35 per cent by February next year.

But Westpac’s forecast was not as dire as ANZ’s, who expected the cash rate to rise above three per cent before the Christmas holidays.

“Our expectation is that the RBA will deliver this via four more successive 50 basis point rate hikes in August, September, October and November,” ANZ’s head of Australian economics, David Plank, wrote in July.

“This 200 basis points of additional tightening sees the cash rate target at 3.35 per cent by November.”

The CBA forecasted the cash rate will sit at 2.60 percentage points by November.

Mr Eslake acknowledged and did not dismiss these projections, but expressed concern over what it could mean for the Australian economy.

“My view would be that if the Reserve Bank does end up going straight to 3 per cent or 3.5 per cent… there will be a much greater risk of a sharper slowdown in the Australian economy,” he said.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe has previously said he expects they will take further action on interest rates, but indicated those changes are not “pre-set” and subject to incoming data at the time.

“The Board expects to take further steps in the process of normalizing monetary conditions over the months ahead, but it is not on a pre-set path,” he said in a statement following the August hike.

“The size and timing of future interest rate increases will be guided by the incoming data and the Board’s assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labor market.”

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CBA boss warns of ‘short sharp contraction’ headed for Australian economy

CBA boss warns of 'short sharp contraction' headed for Australian economy

The boss of Australia’s largest bank has warned that the economy is already declining and that a “short, sharp contraction” is on the way.

Late on Wednesday, the chief executive of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Matt Comyn, delivered the company’s annual results.

Although the CBA made an eye-watering $9.6 billion in profit over the last financial year, Mr Comyn warned that tougher times were on the horizon.

He told the Australian Financial Review that he predicted “a short, sharp contraction in the Australian economy.”

“We are definitely expecting a more challenging year ahead than we have seen in the last 12 months,” he added.

However, in some good news, the banking CEO believes a contraction is almost a certainty but a full-blown recession is less likely.

Australia is in the throes of an economic crisis as inflation rose to 6.1 per cent last month, the highest level it’s been for 20 years.

And for the first time in more than a decade, Australia’s central bank has had no choice but to increase the cash rate in a bid to stop rampant inflation.

For the last four consecutive months, the Reserve Bank of Australia has increased interest rates by 1.75 percentage points and Mr Comyn more rate increases will come.

Mr Comyn told the publication his bank predicts the cash rate to increase by another 75 basis points to sit at 2.6 per cent.

The cash rate is currently 1.85 per cent.

Once the cash rate hits 2.6 per cent, Mr Comyn said the economy would experience a contraction of 1.5 per cent.

He said he “hoped” that once the cash rate reached this point it would be enough to curb spending, adding “We need to see a slowdown in demand.”

Speaking to the ABC, Mr Comyn said “We do forecast recessions in the US, UK and Europe. We don’t believe that that’s the likely outcome in Australia.”

Already there are signs that Australians are splashing their cash less.

Mr Comyn said their customer data shows that spending is falling for both debit and credit cards.

This was significantly more for customers who had mortgages.

“It’s quite early post the immediate rate rises, [but] we are already seeing a downturn in spending across our customer base, both from a debt and credit perspective,” he said.

“Of course, that’s more pronounced with customers who have a home loan, and we expect that it will continue throughout the course of the calendar year.”

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Suburbs struggling the most amid RBA’s interest rate hikes revealed

Suburbs struggling the most amid RBA's interest rate hikes revealed

An estimated one in five mortgage holders – or 551,000 Australians – will struggle to pay back their mortgage if interest rates continue to rise as expected.

Comparison site Finder found a whopping 20 per cent of mortgage holders will be in serious mortgage distress if their home loan interest payments increase by three per cent. Home loans have already increased by 1.75 per cent since May.

It comes as separate data from S&P Global revealed which suburbs in Australia are most at risk of defaulting on their home loans.

The Northern Territory came out as the worst state, with the highest percentage of mortgage holders more than 30 days behind on payments.

A fringe suburb in Perth topped the list in terms of debt overdue to the bank, while Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide as well as some regional areas also received a poor rating.

Of even more concern was that the research was conducted before the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) starting increasing the cash rate, meaning these areas will be even more at risk of defaulting on their loans now.

For four consecutive months the RBA has hiked interest rates. Last week, after its August meeting, the central bank brought up the cash rate to 1.85 per cent.

The cash rate has already risen by 1.75 percentage points since May, following two years of interest rates sitting at a record low of 0.1 per cent.

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According to S&P Global, rising mortgage repayments have hit suburbs on the fringes of big cities the hardest.

Their research measured the weighted average of arrears more than 30 days past due on residential mortgage loans in publicly and privately rated Australian transactions.

The Perth suburb of Maddington, 20km from the city centre, topped the list of “Worst performing postcodes” in the report.

As of early April, 4.67 per cent of homeowners in Maddington are in arrears.

That was closely followed by Dolls Point, located in southern Sydney.

Of the mortgaged houses in that NSW suburb, 4.33 per cent are behind on payments.

In third place was another WA postcode, Byford, in Perth’s southeastern edge, with an arrears percentage of 4.16 per cent.

Western Australia had one more suburb on the list – Ballidu in the Central Midlands – while NSW had a total of four.

Bankstown and Castlereagh, from Sydney’s west and southwest, were also experiencing substantial pressure. Katoomba from the Blue Mountains, south of Sydney, also earned a spot in the report.

Victoria, Queensland and South Australia each had one suburb on the list – Broadmeadows in Melbourne’s north, Barkly in Queensland’s Mout Isa region and Hackham, an outer suburb of Adelaide.

A breakdown of each state showed that the Northern Territory was the most behind in its mortgage repayments, at a rate of 1.75 per cent.

Western Australia came in at 1.40 per cent, as of April this year, before interest rates started to be hiked.

Victoria received a score of 0.87 per cent while 0.85 per cent of NSW mortgage holders were also in mortgage arrears.

The ACT fared the best, with an arrears rate of only 0.33 per cent.

Overall, the national average was 0.71 per cent for Australia’s arrears rate, as of April.

“The swift pace of interest rate rises will create debt-serviceability pressures for households with less liquidity buffers and higher leverage,” the report noted, forecasting that sometime in the third quarter of this year a higher arrears rate would show up in new monthly date .

Finder also released a damning statistic about the state of Australia’s home loan debt.

A recent survey conducted last month concluded that more than half a million homeowners would be “on the brink” if interest rates rose by three per cent.

Of those, 145,000 Australis said they would consider selling their home if rates jumped because they would “struggle a lot” to repay them. That represents about five per cent of Australia’s mortgage holders.

The survey also found that 14 per cent of admitted respondents they might fall behind on their repayments or other bills.

Nearly half (48 per cent) would be able to manage, but would have to cut down on their spending, according to Finder.

Only a quarter of participants said a rate rise would not change their lifestyle or spending habits at all.

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‘Zombie’ homes are fueling Australia’s rental crisis, experts say

'Zombie' homes are fueling Australia's rental crisis, experts say

Real estate experts say Australia is experiencing a rental crisis that’s set to worsen without government intervention, and so-called “zombie” homes are fueling the problem.

A zombie home is a property that is occupied only part of the time – such as a holiday house listed on Airbnb – that is not available to rent on a short or long term lease but can generate large profits for the owner.

For example, a good property in a regional town, near the beach or one in inner Sydney could fetch $1000 for a weekend but just $800 on a weekly basis under a leasing arrangement, First National Real Estate CEO Ray Ellis said.

“It’s a lot easier to take your investment property out of the full-time rental mix and put it into the short-term rental mix which is basically AirBnB or weekend accommodation,” Mr Ellis told news.com.au.

“If you could get $800 a week by having someone there full-time but you can get $1000 for a Saturday and Sunday, and don’t have to go through all the extra legislation requirements, you’ll do it, because you’re making the same return,” he said.

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Throughout any city there’s “hundreds if not thousands” of zombie homes, especially in coastal areas, that are occupied one or two days a week, Mr Ellis said.

“There’s now too many occurring in most cities in Australia.”

The benefit for owners – apart from the financial element – ​​was not having the long-term commitment of dealing with renters, he added.

Zombie homes are widespread, with last year’s census revealing that during lockdown and while Australia’s borders were closed, there were more than 1 million unoccupied properties.

While it’s a win-win for landlords, renters are suffering with rents souring and long queues of desperate prospective tenants lining up to inspect properties. This has forced some to live in their cars, a motel or caravan – even couch surfing – to keep a roof over their heads.

“Investors are putting their properties out for Airbnb, but it’s taking rental properties away from renters and that lack of … properties available to rent is driving demand and prices up,” Finder money expert Rebecca Pike told 7NEWS.com.au.

PropTrack’s latest rental report for the June quarter found the number of renters per property listed on realestate.com.au had risen 28 per cent year-on-year across capital cities, with Sydney and Melbourne experiencing the greatest increase.

The number of rental listings in Sydney fell 21 per cent in the last year. The largest declines in listings were recorded in Melbourne (-25.7 per cent) and Brisbane (-24 per cent).

Overall, the number of new listings coming on to the market was 13.8 per cent lower than the decade average in June.

The strong demand for rentals and limited supply was leading to significant increases in advertised rent prices, the report found.

Rental prices in Sydney have grown by 6 per cent over the past year, after having fallen throughout the early part of the pandemic.

The median rental price for a house in Sydney is currently $620 a week and $500 for a unit.

Nationally, the median weekly rent for a house is $490 and $440 for units.

With higher land tax charges for investors and larger interest rates, many of these costs are being passed on to renters causing rents to rise even further, the report added.

Ms Pike told 7NEWS.com.au the rental crisis needed urgent action and would get worse over the coming months.

“We’re definitely seeing that demand for rental housing going up because we have so many more people coming into the country, whereas during Covid we really saw that drop,” she said. “There is definitely more demand at the moment, but there’s also less supply.

“Also with the RBA cash rate, if investors are paying more for their loans, they’re potentially passing that on to renters.”

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Economists deeply divided over Reserve Bank’s likely interest rate trajectory

A red up arrow next to a percentage sign on top of an aerial view of dozens of houses.

Deep divisions are emerging among some of Australia’s leading bank economists on their outlook for interest rates and the Australian economy.

In one camp are those, such as the economists at Westpac and ANZ, who believe that the cash rate target will pass 3 per cent before the end of this year.

Both are tipping the RBA’s benchmark official rate to peak at 3.35 per cent — it is currently 1.85 per cent — meaning interest rates would almost double from where they are, rising by another 1.5 percentage points over the next six months or so.

The cash rate target was just 0.1 per cent at the beginning of May.

In fact, Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans is not only predicting the cash rate will get to 3.35 per cent, but arguing it must if the Reserve Bank is serious about bringing down inflation.

Westpac and CBA logos
Westpac is expecting the cash rate to hit 3.35 per cent, but CBA thinks it will top out at 2.6 per cent before falling next year.(abcnews)

“The key reason why we insist that a sharper slowdown in demand is required in 2023 is that a much stronger set of demand conditions … runs the risk of resilient high inflationary expectations,” he wrote in response to the RBA’s Statement on Monetary Policy, released on Friday.

The Reserve Bank used market forecasts of a 3 per cent cash rate to underpin its latest economic forecasts, which did not have inflation falling back even to the top of its 2–3 per cent target range until the end of 2024.

Mr Evans said those forecasts showed that the RBA should raise rates more aggressively, even at the expense of slower economic growth — Westpac’s modeling tips annual economic growth of just 1 per cent next year if rates hit 3.35 per cent.

“Such an approach would give the bank the best chance of managing this difficult task of returning inflationary expectations to more normal levels and deflating the current ‘inflationary psychology’ which is now at risk of taking hold,” he said.

Too many rate rises could ‘take the economy backwards’

Then there is the other camp of economists, represented by the Commonwealth Bank and NAB among the big four, who cannot see the cash rate getting above 3 per cent in the near future.

“I don’t think it’s likely to happen because I think the Reserve Bank, once they get the cash rate to around their estimate of neutral [somewhere near 2.5 per cent]will want to pause and actually see how the economy’s responding to the rate hikes that they’ve delivered,” CBA’s head of Australian economics Gareth Aird told RN Breakfast.

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“They are putting through a lot of tightening in a very short amount of time and, if they continue to hike at the rate that they’re doing and just keep going all the way to 3 per cent and even above that level, they’ re not going to be able to actually assess the impact that those hikes are having on the economy in that in that amount of time.

“Now, it’s possible that they end up taking the cash rate to those levels, but I think if they do that, they’ll end up reversing gear in the not too distant future because … we have a highly indebted household sector in Australia and rate rises of that magnitude will just put too many households under stress and I think that will ultimately take the economy backwards.”

The Reserve Bank has recently changed its language slightly to emphasize that “it is not on a pre-set path”.

“The size and timing of future interest rate increases will be guided by the incoming data and the board’s assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labor market,” RBA governor Philip Lowe said after last week’s latest half-a-percentage-point rate rise .

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Homeowners pay $5k extra in interest on loan over three years unnecessarily

Homeowners pay $5k extra in interest on loan over three years unnecessarily

Sitting back and watching the interest rate rise on your home loan could be costing you hundreds of dollars more a month unnecessarily.

Homeowners are being warned not to fall victim to a “mortgage loyalty tax” by staying with their current lender as banks offer discounts and perks to compete for new customers.

Analysis by RateCity shows all four major banks are offering new customers a significantly lower variable rate than existing customers who have not “haggled” for something better.

The financial comparison site found someone who took out a variable rate loan in September 2019 could be paying an interest rate that’s almost a full percentage point higher than a new customer today.

Looking at Australia’s largest bank as an example, RateCity estimates a Commonwealth Bank customer who took out a $500,000 loan three years ago would have paid an extra $5101 in interest over that time if they had not negotiated.

For a $750,000 loan it is an extra $7,652 in interest and for a $1 million loan it is $10,202.

RateCity explained that in those three years, the bank offered discounts on its lowest variable rates five times to new customers, which meant unless an existing customer called up their bank and negotiated each time, they missed out 0.93 percentage points off their rate.

Addressing RateCity’s findings, Commonwealth Bank said in a statement it was committed to providing existing and new customers with “an array of great value and flexible home loan products”.

It highlighted its “Green Home Offer” where existing customers have access to a low standard variable rate if their home meets certain sustainability and energy efficient criteria.

“We encourage our customers to reach out to us to see how our extensive network of home lending specialists are able to help them find the right solution for their needs,” A CBA spokeswoman said.

The Reserve Bank of Australia increased the official cash rate by 0.50 per cent on Tuesday – the fourth hike in four months.

While the major banks have passed on the rate rises in full to existing customers, they are still offering discounts to bring in new business.

RateCity research director Sally Tindall said banks were “falling over themselves” to offer discounts and perks to borrowers willing to move from a competitor.

“Once the August hikes filter through, a competitive interest rate for owner-occupiers is likely to be around 3.50 per cent,” she said.

“If your variable rate starts with a 4 or even a 5, then you really should question why.”

RateCity found at least 10 lenders have cut variable rates since the hikes began, but only for new customers.

The value of refinanced loans surged by $1.06 billion to $18.16 billion in June, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. That is the highest value on record.

As well as rate hikes prompting mortgage customers to shop around, Ms Tindall said many borrowers would be coming off low fixed rate contracts they signed up for during Covid.

“Refinancing hit a record high in June and we expect this will keep on climbing as borrowers roll off their fixed loans, only to find rates have gone through the roof since they last looked at their mortgage,” she said.

“This will in turn push the banks to come up with even more discounts and perks for new customers, particularly refinancers looking to jump ship from a competitor.”

Customers also have the option to call up their bank and negotiate a better interest rate.

“If you do go down this path, do your research before you make the call,” Ms Tindall warned.

“Check what rate you’re on, check what rate your bank is offering new customers, but also what other lenders might be willing to offer you.

“If you have a couple of quotes at the ready for some of your bank’s competitors, they’re likely to take notice.”

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House prices: Interest rate rises and property downturn could be good for buyers

House prices: Interest rate rises and property downturn could be good for buyers

Rising interest rates and uncertainty are causing the property market to cool around Australia. Sydney and Melbourne markets are leading the decline at -2.7 per cent and -0.9 per cent respectively, looking at CoreLogic data.

Based on the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) average property price of $1.2 million in Sydney and $966,500 in Melbourne, this reflects respective discounts of $32,999 and $8699 on the average property today.

With inflation at a 21-year high of 6.1 per cent and interest rates at 1.85 per cent and tipped to continue to rise, it seems likely there will be more pressure on property prices in the short term.

But maybe this could be a good thing. Watching the huge property run over the last couple of years, many people were either priced out of the market or felt property had become overcooked.

With prices on the decline, is it now a smart time to jump in?

State of the property market

Through 2020-21 we saw the value of all property in Australia increase by 23.7 per cent, the strongest growth seen since 2003. In contrast to the weak property market we’re seeing today, for the same time last year the average house price rose $107,000 in Sydney and $41,000 in Melbourne in just three months.

In 2022, we’ve been seeing declines driven by rising interest rates and uncertainty about how the Australian economy is going to ride out the current inflation crisis. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) initially forecast a 15 per cent decline in the property market by the end of 2023, with further falls predicted in 2024.

Worth noting is that not all areas have been (or likely will be) impacted by this downturn equally. We’re seeing property prices hold up more in areas with strong demand and limited supply, and prices weaker in areas that don’t have the same fundamentals. This trend is likely to continue throughout this period of property market disruption.

The key driver of softer property prices is rising interest rates, which have increased by 1.75 per cent over the last four months adding thousands to the cost of repayments on the average Aussie mortgage. With rates forecast to continue rising through 2022 as the RBA grapples with the current global inflation crisis, further pressure will be placed on borrowers and the property market as a result.

Advantages of buying property now

With the property market softening and fewer buyers in the market, people buying property today are doing it at a solid discount to the prices we’ve seen recently.

There’s a lot of fear and uncertainty out there. In my experience helping people with their investing through up and down markets, I’ve found that this uncertainty creates opportunity.

During the height of the Covid crisis there was also a lot of talk about the potential for big property market declines, and a lot of people were too fearful to buy property. Many people were sitting on the sidelines waiting for the uncertainty to pass, convinced there would be a huge crash that would allow them to pick up even more of a bargain.

But before we knew it, the ‘crisis’ was over and the uncertainty was gone. The property market didn’t fail as far as was expected, and many people missed the boat.

In my view, the current conditions are perfect for property buyers to pick up a bargain.

Disadvantages of buying property now

That being said, buying property today does come with risk. The main one that any property buyer needs to manage in the short-term is the likelihood of interest rates rising further.

Rising interest rates for property buyers today mean that you’re highly likely to be paying more for your mortgage in six months than you are today. As mentioned above, rates are tipped to raise around 2 per cent from their current levels in the short-term – meaning you need to be prepared and ready to fund higher mortgage repayments.

There is also potential for property values ​​to fall further in the short-term. Buying and then selling property is an expensive exercise, so you never want to be forced to sell a property. But when values ​​are declining, it’s even more important to protect yourself.

When is the best time to buy property

Looking back, it’s easy to identify ‘good’ times to buy property, but nobody has a crystal ball. We never really know where the property market is going until it actually happens.

And further, while there have been times that we can see would have been better than others to buy property, values ​​have consistently risen over the long-term. That means that over any 10-year period, your asset would have increased in value.

This suggests that the best time to buy was always 10 years ago. The second best time is today.

My view is that if property is on your money road map, now is a great time to buy. You’ll be able to take advantage of the uncertainty, pick up an asset that was a good investment six months ago at a higher price, and move forward on your money journey.

Finding a good quality property is crucial, and having a rock solid plan absolutely necessary to protect your risk. But get these two things right and you’ll be set for success, and will position yourself to come out of this period of disruption in a stronger position than you went into it.

The wrap

Buying property is scary at the best of times, but when fear and uncertainty are high it’s even harder. But property has been one of the most effective ways to invest to build wealth for the last hundred or so years in Australia, and I don’t see that changing any time soon.

Take the time to get your approach right, then make it happen – your future self will thank you for it.

Ben Nash is a finance expert commentator, podcaster, financial adviser and founder of Pivot Wealth, and author of the Amazon best-selling book ‘Get Unstuck: Your guide to creating a life not limited by money’.

Ben has just launched a series of free online money education events to help you get on the front financial foot. You can check out all the details and book your place here.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article is general in nature and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Therefore, you should consider whether the information is appropriate to your circumstances before acting on it, and where appropriate, seek professional advice from a finance professional.

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Australian house prices: 300 suburbs that have significantly dropped in value

Australian house prices: 300 suburbs that have significantly dropped in value

As skyrocketing interest rates smash the Australian housing market, a dozen suburbs have already seen property prices fall by more than $500,000 since March.

PropTrack’s automated valuation model (AVM) data show more than 300 suburbs across the country where dwelling values ​​have experienced six-figure falls over the quarter.

In percentage terms, the worst-performing suburb in the country was South Hedland in WA’s Pilbara region, where units dropped by 24.81 per cent to a median value of $213,791 in June 2022 – a loss of more than $70,000.

That was closely followed by Booval in Queensland, where unit prices were down 24.64 per cent, or more than $121,000, to $370,231.

But it was wealthy suburbs in the capital cities that experienced the largest falls in dollar terms, with parts of Sydney’s northern beaches and eastern suburbs, Melbourne’s Mornington Peninsula, as well as inner-city Perth and Canberra all experiencing falls in excess of half a million dollars.

Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s eastern suburbs home of Point Piper recorded the biggest fall in dollar terms, with units there losing nearly $715,000 in value – a 14.82 per cent fall from $4.82 million to $4.11 million.

Manly came in second place with losses of nearly $680,000 in house prices, representing a 13.8 per cent fall from $4.92 million to $4.25 million.

Ingleside on Sydney’s northern beaches saw house prices fall nearly $610,000 to $2.77 million, while Flinders in Melbourne suffered a $600,000 fall to $2.51 million.

Other suburbs where house prices fell by more than $500,000 include Clontarf, Dover Heights, North Bondi, Bronte, Rose Bay and Bondi Beach in Sydney, Peppermint Grove in Perth and Griffith in Canberra.

Close behind in the $400,000 range were the likes of Double Bay and Tamarama in Sydney, Red Hill – both in Victoria and Canberra – and Mulgoa at the foot of the Blue Mountains.

“Price falls are largely being led by the ‘high end’ of the market and higher value suburbs,” said PropTrack senior economist Eleanor Creagh.

“Manly and Tamarama in Sydney have all posted declines in quarterly values.

“Previously popular suburbs in the Central Coast and Melbourne’s Mornington Peninsula have also seen values ​​decline.

“It’s often the case that the upper end of the market experiences larger price declines, and at the moment it’s the suburbs that are home to more expensive properties that are seeing bigger price falls than more affordable properties.”

It’s not all bad news for homeowners, however.

House prices in some suburbs are still rising, led by Balmain East in Sydney’s inner west, which saw house prices rise more than $329,000 over the quarter to $3.48 million.

New Farm in Brisbane was second with house price growth of more than $295,000 to $2.65 million, followed by Coledale in NSW’s Illawarra region, which was up nearly $289,000 to $2.47 million.

Other suburbs where dwelling values ​​rose more than $200,000 were Newcastle East, The Rocks and Waterloo in Sydney, and Brisbane’s Bowen Hills, Tenerife, Highgate Hill and West End.

“While the current cycle of exceptional price growth is winding down Australia-wide, there are some parts of the country bucking the falling price trend,” said Ms Creagh.

“Parts of Brisbane, Adelaide and regional Australia are proving more resilient.

“With the pandemic driving a boom in remote working, housing markets in parts of regional Australia have emerged, with sea and tree changers looking for lifestyle locations, larger homes, and beachside living.”

The ongoing low supply of properties available for sale, combined with relative affordability advantages driving heightened demand, are causing prices to continue to rise in some regional areas or only just beginning to fail as the impact of higher interest rates weighs on the market.

“As the home price cycle has matured and interest rates are now rising, some suburbs in previous regional hot spots on the Sunshine Coast, and in the Southern Highlands and Geelong regions are starting to see larger price falls, with affordability advantages having been eroded since the pandemic onset,” Ms Creagh said.

“Suburbs like Lorne, Sunshine Beach, Minyama and Noosa Heads have all seen quarterly declines in unit or house values.”

She added it was a similar picture in the capital cities, with markets that led the upswing like the “lifestyle and coastal locations of the northern beaches and eastern suburbs now seeing larger price falls”.

It comes after the Reserve Bank hiked interest rates for the fourth month in a row on Tuesday.

The 50 basis-point increase at the central bank’s August meeting brings the official cash rate to 1.85 per cent, up from the record low 0.1 per cent it was up until May.

Governor Philip Lowe said the RBA had made the decision to raise the rates in a bid to drive down the current 6.1 per cent inflation figure.

In a statement, he said the path to returning to inflation under 3 per cent while keeping the economy on an even keel was something that would take time.

“The path to achieve this is a narrow one and clouded in uncertainty, not least because of global developments,” Dr Lowe said.

“The outlook for global economic growth has been downgraded due to pressures on real incomes from higher inflation, the tightening of monetary policy in most countries, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the Covid containment measures in China. Today’s increase … is a further step in the normalization of monetary conditions in Australia.”

Already, the rise in interest rates has pushed house prices down in most major cities as borrowers stare down the barrel of higher monthly payments.

PropTrack’s Home Price Index shows a national decline of 1.66 per cent in prices since March, but some regions have seen much sharper falls.

“As repayments become more expensive with rising interest rates, housing affordability will decline, prices pushing further down,” Ms Creagh said earlier this week.

Last week, the Australia Institute’s chief economist, Richard Dennis, told NCA NewsWire the RBA was one of the biggest threats to the economy at the moment.

“If we keep increasing interest rates because inflation is higher than we’d like, we might cause a recession,” he said.

“Increasing interest rates won’t help us prepare for a slowing global economy … but they might actually further dampen the Australian economy.”

[email protected]

– with NCA NewsWire

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Interest rates: Peter White urges borrowers to beware of the hidden dangers associated with refinancing following RBA rate rise

Interest rates: Peter White urges borrowers to beware of the hidden dangers associated with refinancing following RBA rate rise

A leading loans expert is urging mortgage holders to be wary of the hidden dangers associated with refinancing as the big four banks look to entice more customers with “cheap deals” following this month’s rate rise.

Peter White AM, the managing director of the Financial Brokers Association of Australia (FBAA), is asking Australians who are considering whether they should switch up their home loan to proceed with caution, warning that “cheaper isn’t always better”.

The director’s message comes after the Reserve Bank of Australia increased the cash rate by 50 basis points for the fourth time in as many months on Tuesday.

With the base rate now standing at 1.85 per cent, Mr White is asking borrowers to be on alert as major banks look to lure vulnerable customers who are struggling with their repayments to sign up to its services.

“Some banks at the moment are offering cheap variable rates to new borrowers only. This is a trap,” Mr White told news.com.au.

“For the lender it’s about using a marketing budget to generate more customers, knowing that most customers will stay as it costs to change again.”

It’s all part of a “vicious cycle” lenders use to draw customers into borrowing from them, Mr White explained, where new customers are blindsided as the rate on offer doesn’t always mean the customer will be better off in the long term.

“There is a hidden danger at times like this that is rarely spoken about,” Mr White said.

“Banks will be looking to attract those considering refinancing as new customers, and will offer cheaper variable interest rates that are significantly below their fixed rates, which are rapidly climbing. This is a case of ‘buyer beware’.”

Cashbacks and exclusive rates at discount prices for new customers are some of the lures banks are using to attract new borrowers.

Both come at the cost of disadvantaging the lender’s current customer base as their higher interest rates make up for the lower rate offered to new customers.

“Borrowers should be aware that next time around they will be the existing customer facing higher rates and will be disadvantaged during rate increases,” Mr White said.

“It’s an old game to lure new customers with a perceived advantage only to be taken advantage of with the next move.”

Additionally, some banks use a tactic where they attempt to give you a better rate after you’ve agreed to another offer.

“If they were serious about looking after you they would have offered this when you first approached them, so ignore this offer and don’t be distracted as this will cause you even more headaches, and makes the process even more complex,” he said .

While Mr White advises borrowers to refinance with caution, saving on your home loan isn’t entirely off the cards.

Rather than focusing on the big four banks, Mr White recommends looking at what second tier banks such as Suncorp, and non-banks such as Bluestone, have on offer.

“Going with the major banks is often the most expensive way forward and may not be in your best interests due to constraints and other factors specific to you,” Mr White said.

“Remember the big banks can only sell you their products, and their aim is to look after themselves and their shareholders, not to act in your best interests.”

It’s also advised that borrowers go through a mortgage broker, rather than directly through a bank. Brokers are free to use as they receive commission from lenders once they sign a customer up to a service.

They also have access to a range of offers that aren’t always available to borrowers who go through the back directly and can find a rate and repayment schedule that suits a borrower’s needs.

“A finance broker is obliged to act in your best interests and sometimes this means explaining that the best option may be not to refinance,” Mr White said. “(They’re also) charged by law to act in your best interests, whereas banks are not.”

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CBA responds to RBA interest rate hike, ANZ, NAB, Westpac stay silent

CBA responds to RBA interest rate hike, ANZ, NAB, Westpac stay silent

Australia’s largest bank has finally responded to the interest rate rise two days after it was initially announced.

On Thursday morning, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia revealed it will pass the full cost of the rate hike onto customers.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked interest rates on Tuesday for the fourth consecutive month.

Australia’s central bank increased the interest rate by 50 basis points, or by 0.5 per cent, bringing the cash rate from 1.35 per cent to 1.85 per cent, largely in line with economist’s predictions.

Up until now Australia’s biggest four banks — The Commonwealth Bank (CBA), ANZ, NAB and Westpac — hadn’t made any changes in response to the latest rate hike.

But just before 10am, the CBA said variable home loans would increase by 0.5 per cent per year from August 12 while term deposits would kick in with the higher return from August 8.

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The CBA’s variable mortgages as well as term deposit accounts and its NetBank Saver accounts will be impacted by the change.

Owner occupiers and investors on variable rate home loans will have to fork out an extra 0.5 per cent in interest every year.

Term deposits and CBA’s savings account will also increase by 0.5 per cent/

The new term deposit rate will be available from 8 August, while the new NetBank Saver rate will take effect on August 12 along with home loans.

Group Executive, Retail Banking, Angus Sullivan, said: “We have been helping customers understand the changing rate environment and consider what it means for them, and we will continue to be there for them.”

Since May, the cash rate has risen by 1.75 percentage points, after four months of back-to-back increases by the central bank.

However, the CBA is so far the only one of the big players to respond, and that was nearly 48 hours later.

In stark contrast, within hours of the announcement, a smaller bank, Macquarie Bank passed on the rate rise almost straight away.

Macquarie Bank was the first bank to say it would increase variable mortgage rates by 0.5 per cent by August 12.

Rates on its savings and everyday transaction accounts also increased by 0.50 per cent.

The move impacts the estimated 2 million people who are customers of Macquarie Bank.

However, CBA, ANZ, NAB and Westpac have between 8.5 million to 17 million customers each, according to Statista.

Last month, Westpac gave customers the most amount of time to prepare for a change in its variable mortgages and also its savings rates, taking two weeks for the change to come into effect – although it announced the change within 24 hours.

The other three banks passed the change onto customers within 10 days after a swift response.

The August hike isn’t expected to be the last, with economists forecasting that interest rates could peak up to two per cent by the end of the year.

Tuesday’s rate rise means those paying off the average home loan of $500,000 will need to cough up an extra $140 a month.

Tuesday’s decision marks the first time the RBA has lifted the rates for four months in a row since the introduction of the two to three per cent inflation target in 1990 in a sign of the inflation and cost of living crisis across the country.

This follows last week’s increase in annual inflation, which hit 6.1 per cent, which was its highest level in 21 years since 2001.

Tuesday’s rate rise means those paying off the average home loan of $500,000 will need to cough up an extra $140 a month.

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