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How Wall Street wooed Sen. Kyrsten Sinema and preserved its multi-billion dollar carried interest tax break

US Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) waits for an elevator to go to the Senate floor at the US Capitol in Washington, US August 2, 2022.

Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

Long before Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., held up a massive spending bill that promised to create jobs, invest in clean energy and tax the rich delivering on some of President Joe Biden’s and the Democratic party’s top campaign promises — those working at Wall Street investment firms had donated millions to the freshman senator’s campaign.

One of her main objections was the bill’s so-called carried interest tax provision — which would have closed an arcane loophole in tax law that allowed hedge fund managers, law firm partners and private equity executives, among others, to pay significantly less taxes than ordinary workers.

Closing that loophole, which was estimated to raise $14 billion in tax revenue over the next decade, was supposed to help pay for $433 billion in spending on climate and health initiatives.

To get Sinema’s vote, and the bill passed, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Democrats had “no choice” but to drop that provision from the broader Inflation Reduction Act. The bill instead imposes a 1% tax on all corporate share buybacks along with a minimum corporate tax rate of 15% on companies with more than $1 billion in revenues. The massive spending-and-tax package squeaked through the evenly divided Senate 51-50 on Sunday with Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote. It’s expected to pass the House later this week.

American Investment Council

As Biden rallied support in the Senate just over a year ago to close the loophole, the head of the trade group representing the world’s largest private equity firms began cranking up the pressure on Sinema and fellow Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, who is also a Democrat.

“Arizona Sens. Kyrsten Sinema and Mark Kelly will be critical voices and votes in the upcoming infrastructure debate,” Drew Maloney, the president and CEO of the American Investment Council, wrote in an op-ed published by an Arizona news outlet. The trade group represents some of the world’s largest private equity firms, including Blackstone, Apollo Global Management, Carlyle Group and KKR. “I urge them to continue supporting private investment’s role in helping small businesses here in Arizona and across the country,” he added.

One of the group’s top priorities was then, and is now, to preserve “carried interest capital gains and prevent elimination of interest deductibility.”

“Our team worked to ensure that members of Congress from both sides of the aisle understand how private equity directly employs workers and supports small businesses throughout their communities,” Maloney said in a statement to CNBC. “Our advocacy helped prevent punitive tax increases that would make it harder for investors to continue to support jobs, small businesses, and pensions in every state.”

Sinema’s been fighting to help preserve the loophole since at least last year when she told Democratic leaders she opposed closing the carried interest tax break. It was subsequently stripped out of a House bill, according to NBC News.

Sinema’s opposition, along with a bevy of concerns from Sen. Joe Manchin, DW.V., helped sink a much more sprawling version of the bill, which was significantly back to win over the two moderate Democrats.

‘What’s best for Arizona’

“Senator Sinema makes every decision based on one criteria: what’s best for Arizona,” Sinema’s spokeswoman Hannah Hurley told CNBC in an email. She said Sinema has been clear for over a year that she will only support tax reforms and revenue options that support Arizona’s economic growth and competitiveness. Sinema believes that “disincentivizing” investments in Arizona businesses would hurt the state’s economy and ability to create jobs, Hurley said.

In the weeks before Sunday’s vote, Sinema’s office was inundated with calls from lobbyists representing hedge funds, private equity firms and other money managers arguing against closing the carried interest tax loophole, according to people familiar with the matter. In the runup to last week’s deal, Ella’s senator and her staff fielded numerous in-person meetings with the industry, said some of the people familiar with these meetings, asking not to be identified to speak freely about private efforts to connect with Sinema .

Since she was elected to the Senate in 2018, Sinema has been a sympathetic ear to the industry. Last September, she huddled for a lunch meeting at a Philadelphia restaurant with Michael Forman, who manages at least $34 billion as CEO of a Philly-based investment firm FS Investments, and one of his executives, according to people familiar with the lunch. Forman did not return emails and calls seeking comment.

“Every single major industry that is not supportive of what’s in there is meeting with Sinema and she is meeting with anybody and everybody,” a lobbyist representing some of the biggest investment firms in the world told CNBC before Schumer announced late Thursday that Democrats agreed to drop the carried interest provision to get her vote. Sinema said she would work separately “to enact carried interest tax reforms.”

Private equity donors

Even before Sinema was elected to the Senate in 2018, she supported private equity investors as a member in the House of Representatives. In 2016, Sinema said the industry provided “billions of dollars each year to Main Street businesses,” according to the New York Times.

Sinema won a coveted seat on the powerful Banking Committee and made quick work networking with — and raising donations from — the industry she would oversee. Since the start of the 2018 election cycle, she’s raked in at least $2 million from the securities and investment industry — outraising Senate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown’s $770,000 in industry donations over the same time, according to Federal Election Commission data analyzed by the nonpartisan campaign finance watchdog OpenSecrets. Both Sinema and Brown, D-Ohio, are up for reelection in 2024.

Sinema’s take includes $10,000 in campaign donations from the American Investment Council’s political action committee, half of which was donated to her campaign after Maloney’s op-ed ran last year.

Employees at private equity firms Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, the Carlyle Group and Apollo Global Management donated more than $95,000, combined, to Sinema from the 2018 election through the current 2022 election cycle, according to campaign finance data.

That includes $11,600 in combined donations from KKR co-founders Henry Kravis and George Roberts, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Records show that Carlyle’s and Apollo’s political action committees also donated a combined $15,000 to Sinema’s reelection campaign.

Representatives for KKR and Carlyle declined to comment. Representatives for Apollo and Blackstone did not return requests for comment.

‘Hats off to the P/E lobby!’

The reason why some of Wall Street’s wealthiest money managers want to preserve the carried interest loophole is because it taxes their profits at a lower rate than the ordinary income. Instead of paying the standard individual income tax rates of up to 37% for individuals who earn more than $539,900 ($647,850 for married couples filing jointly), carried interest is taxed at the capital gains rate, which is usually around 20% for high-income earners, as long as the investment is held for at least three years.

Democrats wanted to make executives hold those investments for at least five years to get the better rate. The industry defends the carried interest tax break, saying it helps preserve investments that benefit small businesses. Critics say it’s just a massive tax break for the rich.

Lloyd Blankfein, the former CEO of Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs, mockingly congratulated the private equity industry on Twitter after the carried interest provision was stripped from the Inflation Reduction Act: “Hats off to the P/E lobby! After all these years and budget crises, the highest paid people still pay the lower capital gains tax on earnings from their labor.”

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Categories
US

How Wall Street wooed Sen. Kyrsten Sinema and preserved its multi-billion dollar carried interest tax break

US Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) waits for an elevator to go to the Senate floor at the US Capitol in Washington, US August 2, 2022.

Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

Long before Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., held up a massive spending bill that promised to create jobs, invest in clean energy and tax the rich delivering on some of President Joe Biden’s and the Democratic party’s top campaign promises — those working at Wall Street investment firms had donated millions to the freshman senator’s campaign.

One of her main objections was the bill’s so-called carried interest tax provision — which would have closed an arcane loophole in tax law that allowed hedge fund managers, law firm partners and private equity executives, among others, to pay significantly less taxes than ordinary workers.

Closing that loophole, which was estimated to raise $14 billion in tax revenue over the next decade, was supposed to help pay for $433 billion in spending on climate and health initiatives.

To get Sinema’s vote, and the bill passed, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Democrats had “no choice” but to drop that provision from the broader Inflation Reduction Act. The bill instead imposes a 1% tax on all corporate share buybacks along with a minimum corporate tax rate of 15% on companies with more than $1 billion in revenues. The massive spending-and-tax package squeaked through the evenly divided Senate 51-50 on Sunday with Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote. It’s expected to pass the House later this week.

American Investment Council

As Biden rallied support in the Senate just over a year ago to close the loophole, the head of the trade group representing the world’s largest private equity firms began cranking up the pressure on Sinema and fellow Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, who is also a Democrat.

“Arizona Sens. Kyrsten Sinema and Mark Kelly will be critical voices and votes in the upcoming infrastructure debate,” Drew Maloney, the president and CEO of the American Investment Council, wrote in an op-ed published by an Arizona news outlet. The trade group represents some of the world’s largest private equity firms, including Blackstone, Apollo Global Management, Carlyle Group and KKR. “I urge them to continue supporting private investment’s role in helping small businesses here in Arizona and across the country,” he added.

One of the group’s top priorities was then, and is now, to preserve “carried interest capital gains and prevent elimination of interest deductibility.”

“Our team worked to ensure that members of Congress from both sides of the aisle understand how private equity directly employs workers and supports small businesses throughout their communities,” Maloney said in a statement to CNBC. “Our advocacy helped prevent punitive tax increases that would make it harder for investors to continue to support jobs, small businesses, and pensions in every state.”

Sinema’s been fighting to help preserve the loophole since at least last year when she told Democratic leaders she opposed closing the carried interest tax break. It was subsequently stripped out of a House bill, according to NBC News.

Sinema’s opposition, along with a bevy of concerns from Sen. Joe Manchin, DW.V., helped sink a much more sprawling version of the bill, which was significantly back to win over the two moderate Democrats.

‘What’s best for Arizona’

“Senator Sinema makes every decision based on one criteria: what’s best for Arizona,” Sinema’s spokeswoman Hannah Hurley told CNBC in an email. She said Sinema has been clear for over a year that she will only support tax reforms and revenue options that support Arizona’s economic growth and competitiveness. Sinema believes that “disincentivizing” investments in Arizona businesses would hurt the state’s economy and ability to create jobs, Hurley said.

In the weeks before Sunday’s vote, Sinema’s office was inundated with calls from lobbyists representing hedge funds, private equity firms and other money managers arguing against closing the carried interest tax loophole, according to people familiar with the matter. In the runup to last week’s deal, Ella’s senator and her staff fielded numerous in-person meetings with the industry, said some of the people familiar with these meetings, asking not to be identified to speak freely about private efforts to connect with Sinema .

Since she was elected to the Senate in 2018, Sinema has been a sympathetic ear to the industry. Last September, she huddled for a lunch meeting at a Philadelphia restaurant with Michael Forman, who manages at least $34 billion as CEO of a Philly-based investment firm FS Investments, and one of his executives, according to people familiar with the lunch. Forman did not return emails and calls seeking comment.

“Every single major industry that is not supportive of what’s in there is meeting with Sinema and she is meeting with anybody and everybody,” a lobbyist representing some of the biggest investment firms in the world told CNBC before Schumer announced late Thursday that Democrats agreed to drop the carried interest provision to get her vote. Sinema said she would work separately “to enact carried interest tax reforms.”

Private equity donors

Even before Sinema was elected to the Senate in 2018, she supported private equity investors as a member in the House of Representatives. In 2016, Sinema said the industry provided “billions of dollars each year to Main Street businesses,” according to the New York Times.

Sinema won a coveted seat on the powerful Banking Committee and made quick work networking with — and raising donations from — the industry she would oversee. Since the start of the 2018 election cycle, she’s raked in at least $2 million from the securities and investment industry — outraising Senate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown’s $770,000 in industry donations over the same time, according to Federal Election Commission data analyzed by the nonpartisan campaign finance watchdog OpenSecrets. Both Sinema and Brown, D-Ohio, are up for reelection in 2024.

Sinema’s take includes $10,000 in campaign donations from the American Investment Council’s political action committee, half of which was donated to her campaign after Maloney’s op-ed ran last year.

Employees at private equity firms Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, the Carlyle Group and Apollo Global Management donated more than $95,000, combined, to Sinema from the 2018 election through the current 2022 election cycle, according to campaign finance data.

That includes $11,600 in combined donations from KKR co-founders Henry Kravis and George Roberts, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Records show that Carlyle’s and Apollo’s political action committees also donated a combined $15,000 to Sinema’s reelection campaign.

Representatives for KKR and Carlyle declined to comment. Representatives for Apollo and Blackstone did not return requests for comment.

‘Hats off to the P/E lobby!’

The reason why some of Wall Street’s wealthiest money managers want to preserve the carried interest loophole is because it taxes their profits at a lower rate than the ordinary income. Instead of paying the standard individual income tax rates of up to 37% for individuals who earn more than $539,900 ($647,850 for married couples filing jointly), carried interest is taxed at the capital gains rate, which is usually around 20% for high-income earners, as long as the investment is held for at least three years.

Democrats wanted to make executives hold those investments for at least five years to get the better rate. The industry defends the carried interest tax break, saying it helps preserve investments that benefit small businesses. Critics say it’s just a massive tax break for the rich.

Lloyd Blankfein, the former CEO of Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs, mockingly congratulated the private equity industry on Twitter after the carried interest provision was stripped from the Inflation Reduction Act: “Hats off to the P/E lobby! After all these years and budget crises, the highest paid people still pay the lower capital gains tax on earnings from their labor.”

.

Categories
US

Market outlook ‘too volatile’ to chase stock, bond rallies, asset manager says

Investors should eschew chasing recent rallies in stocks and bonds given the current economic uncertainty, according to the chief investment officer of Swiss asset manager Prime Partners.

Francois Savary said it was enormously difficult to have clear economic visibility due to the particulars of the current investment cycle, such as the Covid-19 recovery and the Ukraine war.

“One of the key factors that supported the rally, which was a strong bond market during the month of July, has disappeared to a certain extent,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Monday.

Additionally, while the second-quarter earnings season has been robust so far, a key issue looming is how many analysts will review their third-quarter earnings forecasts. “So we consider that the two elements that can support a further rally in the equity market are not clearly there,” Savary said.

As such, he said investors should “absolutely not” be chasing the rally in equities that has been underway since mid-July. The S&P 500 is up almost 13% from its July lows, closing at 4,140 on Monday, but remains down since the start of the year.

On bonds, Savary said, “we all know it’s very difficult to make money on the bonds side. I would not chase the bond rally that we experienced over the last two months.”

Corporate, government and high-yield bond funds saw sizeable inflows last month. The US 10 Year Treasury yield — which moves inversely prices — has slipped to trade around 2.76% on Tuesday after topping 3.48% in mid-June.

Investors in global markets are navigating a whirlwind of inflationary pressures, recession risks and central bank tightening cycles, with even juggernauts such as Berkshire Hathaway and SoftBank posting investment losses in the June quarter.

Stock picks and investing trends from CNBC Pro:

“It’s a very difficult market environment,” Savary told CNBC. “You need to have some hedge funds [and] some kind of decorrelating strategy that are in your portfolio.”

Keeping some investment in stocks will provide partial protection from inflation, he said, however investors will need to be tactical and observe the latest economic figures.

Meanwhile cash, Savary said, is useful for providing flexibility.

“It’s interesting to have some cash to check because everything is possible in this kind of environment. We could have a recession, but you could also get a slow but satisfactory rate of growth in the coming 12 months,” he said.

For now, Savary said the market has priced in a recession. “But the numbers are not telling you that there is a recession, so we need to be nimble and to check what is happening week-by-week and month-by-month, and we should have more visibility by the early fall, in the US in particular.”

US gross domestic product fell for the first two quarters of the year, meeting a common definition of a recession, although the NBER defines it differently and the White House insists the US is not currently in recession.

Investors will be looking to US inflation data out Wednesday for further clues on the state of the world’s largest economy. It comes after the jobs report for last month showed unexpected strength and increased expectations of a 75 basis points rate hike in September.

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Categories
US

Inflation could push Fed into August rate hike

CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Monday said the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates in August, before its next scheduled meeting in September, if this week’s economic data shows that inflation isn’t abating.

“The Fed is still in charge of this market. A week ago, it looked like they might ease up, but after Friday’s red-hot jobs number and the passage of the [Inflation Reduction Act]I’m worried they might lower the boom on us even before September comes,” he said.

“If both numbers are scorchers, we will get a surprise August meeting,” he predicted, referencing the consumer price index and producer price index data coming this week.

The Senate on Sunday passed the Inflation Reduction Act, a Democrat-backed package aimed at fighting climate change and extending health care coverage.

The legislation, among other provisions, allows Medicare to negotiate prices with drug companies and puts a 15% minimum tax on large corporations.

The July jobs report saw stronger-than-expected numbers last week, meaning the central bank could have to continue its path forward on raising interest rates aggressively.

“If I were Chairman Jay Powell … I’d be hard-pressed not to call a special Fed meeting this month to hit us with another 75-basis point rate hike,” Cramer said. A basis point equals 0.01 percentage point.

Investors are also looking to the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index this week to shed more light on how consumers are coping with inflation.

Cramer also previewed this week’s slate of earnings. All earnings and revenue estimates are courtesy of FactSet.

Tuesday: Emerson Electric, Ralph Lauren, Plug Power, Unity Software

Emerson Electric

  • Q3 2022 earnings release at 6:55 am ET; conference call at 9 am ET
  • Projected EPS: $1.29
  • Projected revenue: $5.10 billion

Cramer said he expects Emerson to perform well long term after selling its waste disposal business InSinkErator to Whirlpool, but is still curious about how the company is faring short term.

Ralph Lauren

  • Q1 2023 earnings release at 8 am ET; conference call at 9 am ET
  • Projected EPS: $1.71
  • Projected revenue: $1.40 billion

Though Ralph Lauren is a high-end store, it could still face the same inventory gluts that other retailers are dealing with, he said.

plug-power

  • Q2 2022 earnings release after the close; conference call at 4:30 pm ET
  • Projected loss: 21 cents per share
  • Projected revenue: $159 million

Plug Power will benefit from the Inflation Reduction Act because of the bill’s hydrogen tax credit, which could help the company become more than just a niche fuel cell producer, Cramer said.

UnitySoftware

  • Q2 2022 earnings release at 4:05 pm ET; conference call at 5 pm ET
  • Projected loss: 21 cents per share
  • Projected revenue: $300 million

Cramer predicted that the beaten-down stock could go even lower since Nvidia’s preliminary financial results on Monday revealed that gaming is weak.

Wednesday: CyberArk Software, Wendy’s, Disney, Dutch Bros

Cyber ​​Ark Software

  • Q2 2022 earnings release between 7:00-7:10 am ET; conference call at 8:30 am ET
  • Projected loss: 30 cents per share
  • Projected revenue: $138 million

The company should report great results since cybersecurity companies tend to be shielded from economic turbulence, Cramer said.

Wendy’s

  • Q2 2022 earnings release at 7 am ET; conference call at 8:30 am ET
  • Projected EPS: 22 cents
  • Projected revenue: $540 million

Cramer said he’s worried about how inflation could be hurting Wendy’s performance.

Disney

  • Q3 2022 earnings release at 4:05 pm ET; conference call at 4:30 pm ET
  • Projected EPS: 98 cents
  • Projected revenue: $20.99 billion

“It’s just too hated for me to believe it can stay down,” he said.

Dutch Bros.

  • Q2 2022 earnings release after the close; conference call at 5 pm ET
  • Projected EPS: 5 cents per share
  • Projected revenue: $182 million

The company is a beloved brand, but it’ll have to convince investors that its stock is worth buying, Cramer said.

Thursday: Warby Parker, Toast, Rivian

Warby Parker

  • Q2 2022 earnings release at 6:45 am ET; conference call at 8 am ET
  • Projected loss: 2 cents per share
  • Projected revenue: $150 million

“I bet, like other recent IPOs, it’s going to move up on the quarter,” Cramer said.

toast

  • Q2 2022 earnings release at 4:05 pm ET; conference call at 5 pm ET
  • Projected loss: 12 cents per share
  • Projected revenue: $651 million

He said that he’s surprised so many small companies like Toast are seeing their stocks go higher, even on no news — which suggests they never should have gone down so much in the first place.

Rivian

  • Q2 2022 earnings release at 4:10 pm ET; conference call at 5 pm ET
  • Projected loss: $1.63 per share
  • Projected revenue: $335 million

The electric vehicle maker will likely benefit from the Inflation Reduction Act due to the bill’s extension of income tax credits for consumers who purchase electric vehicles, Cramer said. I have added that he still prefers Tesla.

Disclosure: Cramer’s Charitable Trust owns shares of Disney.

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Categories
US

5 things to know before the stock market opens Monday, August 8

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), New York, August 3, 2022.

Andrew Kelly | Reuters

Here are the most important news items that investors need to start their trading day:

1. Stocks look for momentum

US equities markets were on track to open higher Monday morning after three straight winning weeks for the S&P 500, which is recovering from its worst first half in more than 50 years. The Nasdaq also posted a winning week as investors digested the latest jobs report, which was much stronger than expected, as well as chances for future rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, which is in inflation-fighting mode. Markets will also get a fresh read on inflation this week: The latest consumer price index is slated to be released Wednesday, and economists expect it to show a slight slowdown in the red-hot rate of inflation. Follow live stock market updates here.

2. Senate passes climate and health-care package

US Vice President Kamala Harris smiles during her speech at the NAACP National Convention in Atlantic City, New Jersey, US July 18, 2022.

Hannah Beer | Reuters

Senate Democrats, relying on Vice President Kamala Harris’ tiebreaking vote amid unanimous Republican opposition, finally passed a reconciliation package including provisions to battle climate change and bolster health care. The $430 billion bill ended up much smaller than what President Joe Biden and Democratic leaders were looking for, but the party is touting it as a huge victory ahead of the midterm elections this fall. The party in power tends to lose seats in Congress during a president’s first term, and with inflation raging and Biden’s approval ratings in the gutter, Democrats are in danger of ceding control of both chambers. The House is slated to vote on legislation and send it to Biden later this week. Read NBC News’ report here.

3. Fed governor sees more big rate hikes

Federal Reserve Bank Governor Michelle Bowman gives her first public remarks as a Federal policymaker at an American Bankers Association conference In San Diego, California, February 11 2019.

Ann Saphir | Reuters

The Fed is relatively fresh off its second consecutive three-quarter point rate hike, but expect more to come, according to Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. “My view is that similarly sized increases should be on the table until we see inflation declining in a consistent, meaningful, and lasting way,” She said in remarks over the weekend. Bowman, a voting member of the central bank’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, said high inflation is a bigger threat to the economy than slowing growth. If prices continue to surge like they’ve been doing over the past few months, she said, it “could lead to a further economic softening, risking a prolonged period of economic weakness coupled with high inflation, like we experienced in the 1970s.”

4. Huge loss for SoftBank

SoftBank Founder Masayoshi Son said there is “confusion in the world” and in the markets due to a number of factors including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, high inflation and central bank moves to raise interest rates. These factors have contributed to a record annual loss at SoftBank’s Vision Fund.

Kentaro Takahashi | Bloomberg | Getty Images

High interest rates have taken a toll on risky tech stocks this year, and SoftBank’s tech-focused Vision Fund is feeling the pinch. The Japanese conglomerate said Monday that the Vision Fund posted a loss of 2.93 trillion yen ($21.68 billion) in the most recent quarter – the second-largest quarterly loss for the fund. Overall, the company reported a record quarterly loss after delivering a profit during the same quarter a year earlier. SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son had already warned during the spring that the company would be more “conservative” with its investments after a massive loss during its previous fiscal year.

5. China sets new military drills near Taiwan

Video screenshot shows a missile launched by the rocket force of the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army PLA, targeting designated maritime areas to the east of the Taiwan Island, Aug. 4, 2022.

Xinhua News Agency | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images

China isn’t done with its aggressive drills near Taiwan. The Chinese military said Monday it would conduct new actions in the air and sea near the self-ruled island, which China claims as its own. China’s military had just wrapped up several days’ worth of exercises – its largest ever, according to Reuters – protesting House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. The drills included the firing of 11 short-range ballistic missiles, while warships, fighter jets and drones made several maneuvers around the island.

– CNBC’s Yun Li, Jeff Cox and Arjun Khrapal contributed to this report.

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US

The market’s big winners and losers in climate, health and tax bill

US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) walks outside the US Capitol in Washington, US August 2, 2022.

Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

Want to know what the Inflation Reduction Act means for the market’s biggest companies, as well as for your wallet? When it comes to politics, you always have to follow the money – and remember that the devil is in the details.

The Senate on Aug. 7 passed the bill that’s designed to fight climate change, make significant tax changes, trim the federal deficit, cut drug prices for Medicare recipients and extend expanded health insurance subsidies under the Affordable Care Act. As it moves to the House of Representatives, the roster of the winners and losers under the bill is coming into sharper focus even before it goes to President Joe Biden.

For both winners and losers, the impact is more modest than you would think, given the sheer size of numbers being bandied about. That’s because of details like strings attached to some of the new or extended tax breaks, or the schedule for implementing Medicare’s negotiations with big pharmaceutical companies over drug prices.

Changes will be more gradual than many headlines imply.

Beginning with the biggest-dollar provisions of the ten-year package of spending and tax cuts, these are some of the effects American corporations and citizens will see from the law. The two biggest changes are the bill’s deficit reducers – just two provisions of the law that account for 80% of its $300 billion in deficit reduction, according to Moody’s Analytics.

Losers: Big tax-avoiding corporations

Members of the Patriotic Millionaires hold a federal tax filing day protest outside the apartment of Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, to demand he pay his fair share of taxes, in New York City, May 17, 2021.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

The biggest provision by far of the package is the $313 billion Moody’s Analytics says will be raised over 10 years by imposing a 15% minimum tax on corporate profits for businesses that earn at least $1 billion a year.

The law also cracks down on the practice of letting companies announce one set of profit figures to investors, while using another set of numbers that include tax loopholes to show the government. This happens by applying the 15% rate to the “book rate” profits companies disclose to Wall Street, says the liberal-leaning Roosevelt Institute.

The institute says 55 big companies paid no net federal taxes in 2020, including names like Nike, Salesforce.com, Archer Daniels Midland and Fedex. They would have owed $8.5 billion in 2020 at the standard corporate tax rate of 21%, the institute said.

A report by the Center for American Progress says 19 companies in the Fortune 100 alone paid little or no tax in 2021. Among companies that paid 6% or less, as calculated by liberal-leaning think tank: Amazon, Exxon Mobil, AT&T, Bank of America, and both Ford and General Motors. All of them will likely be paying more.

Losers: Drug companies (but not as much as you think)

Participants hold signs as then-Democratic US presidential candidate US Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) spoke at a news conference to introduce the “Medicare for All Act of 2019” on Capitol Hill in Washington, April 10, 2019

Aaron P. Bernstein | Reuters

The government will save $288 billion by negotiating over drug prices, Moody’s says, and that’s a win for senior citizens – but some experts say the change will be more gradual and phased in than many consumers expect.

That’s because the law will only let Medicare negotiate over a few drugs in the early years of the law’s implementation. Medicare will only be able to haggle over 10 drugs in fiscal 2026, and new drugs will not be subject to negotiation for nine to 13 years after their market introduction, said Tricia Neuman, executive director of the Program on Medicare Policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation .

“Savings are exponentially smaller than under the [2019] House bill, which covered many more drugs,” Neuman said. That bill would have let Medicare negotiate terms with 25 top drugs initially, and expanded faster.

One win for seniors is a $2,000 annual cap on their contribution to prescription spending. Most recipients now spend less, but cancer patients can easily spend $10,000 or more, according to a 2019 study. That gives Medicare recipients certainty about drug expenses, Neuman said.

The impact on companies isn’t completely clear because it’s not known yet exactly which drugs will be the first subjected to price negotiations, Neuman said. In 2020, Medicare spent more than $1 billion on each of nearly 40 drugs. Bristol Myers Squibb’s blood-clotting treatment Eliquis ($9.9 billion), Bristol Myers Squibb’s cancer treatment Revlimid ($5.4 billion), and Johnson and Johnson’s blood-clotting drug Xarelto ($4.7 billion) top the list.

What about the spending part of the bill?

Among so-called spending in the bill is actually targeted tax cuts, which the congressional Joint Committee on Taxation calls tax expenditures. One of the three biggest ones in this package, which together account for three-fourths of the $313 billion in tax breaks, is an extension of existing health-care law.

It would extend the subsidies for health insurance under Obamacare that were increased during the Covid pandemic, keeping the benefit hikes from expiring Dec. 31.

People who buy insurance through Obamacare are among the winners. An estimated $64 billion of the package will be in the form of tax credits for people who buy health insurance on Internet exchange markets like Healthcare.gov, according to Moody’s. These credits subsidize the cost of coverage for people whose employers don’t offer benefits and who make too much to be eligible for Medicaid, and were expanded in Covid relief legislation to make policies more affordable.

The provision extends the credit for three years, adding nothing to the deficit after fiscal 2026, Moody’s says. Without it, an estimated 3.1 million Americans would have lost health care coverage, estimates the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

Winners: Car companies (but maybe not Tesla)

GM launched ‘EV Live,’ a free online platform that connects electric vehicle owners or consumers who have questions about zero-emissions cars and trucks with an expert who can answer them.

Courtesy: GM

The other big headlines on the “spending” side of the bill are the extension of the $7,500 consumer income tax credit for the purchase of new electric vehicles, and the addition of a new, $4,000 credit for buying a used EV. But the details of the bill make assessing short-term winners and losers complicated.

First, the bill caps the price of eligible new cars at $55,000, excluding the most popular version of Tesla’s Model 3 (as well as all Model S and X vehicles). Trucks and vans can get the credit if they cost less than $80,000. Even that’s a modest win for Tesla, which has not offered its buyers any tax credits since it used up the 200,000 credits it was allotted under existing law. Most or all vehicles from startups like Lucid Motors and Rivian are also excluded under the new bill, at least until they introduce planned cheaper models.

“The Model 3 is right on the border,” said Chris Lafakis, energy economist at Moody’s Analytics.

More crucially, the bill includes requirements for domestic manufacturing of EVs and their battery components to qualify for the extended credit. As written, the law requires that 40% of battery components be sourced from factories in the US or its free-trade agreement partners; that batteries are US made by 2029; and that Chinese components and minerals be phased out beginning in 2024.

Right now, it is not clear if any US battery plant can meet the law’s requirements. To keep the credits flowing once the law takes effect next year, the Biden administration will have to waive some provisions of the soon-to-be-approved law.

One unexpected effect of the law will be to highlight a comment Tesla CEO Elon Musk made on the EV maker’s most recent conference call, and has made before, that coming demand for EVs will make the next half-decade a great time to be an entrepreneur mining or refining the lithium that powers electric vehicle batteries. The law’s buy-American provisions will only add to those pressures.

“It is basically like minting money right now. There’s, like, software margins in lithium processing right now,” Musk said on the recent earnings call. “So I would really like to encourage, once again, entrepreneurs to enter the lithium refining business. You can’t lose.”

Winners: Utilities and homeowners

A wind farm shares space with corn fields in Latimer, Iowa, US

Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

About a third of the tax breaks in the bill — up to $113 billion — are to extend tax credits to encourage production of renewable electricity plants, which have four times as much share of the US market as they did a decade or so ago.

That’s a boon to utilities, which either build plants themselves or buy power from independent operators, Lafakis said. Utilities will also benefit from selling more power as electricity fuels more cars, trucks and appliances, thanks to tax breaks in the law.

More reliance on renewables should also benefit rate payers, since new wind-electricity plants are now much cheaper than new plants that burn coal or natural gas, according to the investment bank Lazard. In some cases, a new wind plant with existing tax subsidies can be cheaper than even continuing to run a coal plant that’s already in use, Lazard said.

Ratepayers who own their own homes may also claim tax credits for shifting more of their home appliances to using electricity, which can be powered by renewables, rather than natural gas. Since most makers of electric hot water heaters and stoves also make gas models, it’s not clear whether the law will cause any major shifts in market share.

“The clear winners are clean energy, solar and other renewables,” said Robert Haworth, senior investment strategy director at US Bank Wealth Management. “And it works hard to make sure there’s not too much disincentive for fossil fuels.”

Winners: Hedge funds (for now)

Losers: Public company shareholders

US Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) waits for an elevator to go to the Senate floor at the US Capitol in Washington, US August 2, 2022.

Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

The last minute deal with Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema to gain her vote for her made Democrats drop a plan to impose ordinary income taxes on bonuses that hedge fund and venture capital managers make, closing a loophole that lets these financiers pay lower capital-gains rates on money they never put at risk.

Instead, the plan imposes a 1% tax on stock buybacks – a corporate finance tactic companies use to increase earnings per share by reducing the number of shares outstanding with excess cash.

Proponents of the buyback tax, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, argue that companies can put their cash to work investing more in plants and higher salaries. Opponents say it will hurt returns of retirement plans and pension funds.

Companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index spent $850 billion on buybacks last year.

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Categories
US

Taiwan’s trade with China is far bigger than its trade with the US

Aerial photograph of shipping containers at the harbor in Keelung, Taiwan. Data show that Taiwan depends more on China for trade than it does on the US

Sam Yeh | Afp | Getty Images

BEIJING — Data show that Taiwan depends more on China for trade than it does on the US, even if US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi threw her weight behind Taiwan this week in a high-profile visit.

Taiwan came under military and economic pressure from Beijing this week, after the democratically self-ruled island allowed the visit of Pelosi — the highest-ranking US official to set foot on Taiwan in 25 years.

The visit came despite warnings from China, which considers Taiwan part of its territory and maintains the island should have no right to conduct foreign relations. The US recognizes Beijing as the sole legal government of China, while maintaining unofficial relations with Taiwan.

Still, Taiwan’s business and economic ties with mainland China and Hong Kong have grown so large that the region is by far the island’s largest trading partner.

Many large Taiwanese companies in high-tech industries such the world’s biggest chipmaker — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC. — operate factories in mainland China.

Last year, mainland China and Hong Kong accounted for 42% of Taiwan’s exports, while the US had a 15% share, according to official Taiwan data accessed through Wind Information.

In all, Taiwan exported $188.91 billion in goods to mainland China and Hong Kong in 2021. More than half were electronic parts, followed by optical equipment, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of Finance.

Taiwan’s exports to Southeast Asia were even greater than those to the US — at $70.25 billion to the region, versus $65.7 billion to the US, the data showed.

As a source of Taiwan’s imports, mainland China and Hong Kong again ranked first with a 22% share. The US only had a 10% share, ranking behind Japan, Europe and Southeast Asia.

Growing trade with mainland China

In recent years, Taiwan has bought an increasing amount of products from mainland China, and vice versa.

Over the last five years, Taiwan’s imports from mainland China have arisen by about 87% versus 44% growth in imports from the US

Taiwan’s exports to mainland China grew by 71% between 2016 and 2021. But exports to the US nearly doubled, growing by 97%.

Read more about China from CNBC Pro

Comparable to Shanghai

.

Categories
US

Taiwan’s trade with China is far bigger than its trade with the US

Aerial photograph of shipping containers at the harbor in Keelung, Taiwan. Data show that Taiwan depends more on China for trade than it does on the US

Sam Yeh | Afp | Getty Images

BEIJING — Data show that Taiwan depends more on China for trade than it does on the US, even if US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi threw her weight behind Taiwan this week in a high-profile visit.

Taiwan came under military and economic pressure from Beijing this week, after the democratically self-ruled island allowed the visit of Pelosi — the highest-ranking US official to set foot on Taiwan in 25 years.

The visit came despite warnings from China, which considers Taiwan part of its territory and maintains the island should have no right to conduct foreign relations. The US recognizes Beijing as the sole legal government of China, while maintaining unofficial relations with Taiwan.

Still, Taiwan’s business and economic ties with mainland China and Hong Kong have grown so large that the region is by far the island’s largest trading partner.

Many large Taiwanese companies in high-tech industries such the world’s biggest chipmaker — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC. — operate factories in mainland China.

Last year, mainland China and Hong Kong accounted for 42% of Taiwan’s exports, while the US had a 15% share, according to official Taiwan data accessed through Wind Information.

In all, Taiwan exported $188.91 billion in goods to mainland China and Hong Kong in 2021. More than half were electronic parts, followed by optical equipment, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of Finance.

Taiwan’s exports to Southeast Asia were even greater than those to the US — at $70.25 billion to the region, versus $65.7 billion to the US, the data showed.

As a source of Taiwan’s imports, mainland China and Hong Kong again ranked first with a 22% share. The US only had a 10% share, ranking behind Japan, Europe and Southeast Asia.

Growing trade with mainland China

In recent years, Taiwan has bought an increasing amount of products from mainland China, and vice versa.

Over the last five years, Taiwan’s imports from mainland China have arisen by about 87% versus 44% growth in imports from the US

Taiwan’s exports to mainland China grew by 71% between 2016 and 2021. But exports to the US nearly doubled, growing by 97%.

Read more about China from CNBC Pro

Comparable to Shanghai

.