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Business

ASX opens higher as Wall St rallies, JB Hi-Fi hikes dividend, Carsales profit jumps

Australian shares have started the day higher, tracking gains on Wall Street.

The ASX 200 was up 35 points, or 0.5 per cent, to 7,067, at 10:16am AEST.

At the same time, the Australian dollar was flat, at 71.17 US cents.

Shares of JB Hi-Fi rose 0.2 per cent, to $45.61, after the electronics retailer reported a 7.7 per cent jump in annual earnings, to $544.9 million, as higher store traffic driven by the easing of COVID-19 restrictions complemented continued growth in online you go out.

The company was one of the beneficiaries of the pandemic as work-from-home mandates meant higher demand for electronics.

With easing of COVID-19 restrictions, the company was able to reopen all of its stores in the latter half of the financial year, while online sales over the year registered a 52.8 per cent jump.

This helped it increase the company’s full-year dividend payout to $3.16 a share, up from $2.87 in the prior financial year.

The company noted that the cost of doing business in Australia was higher, in-line with higher inflation in the country, while reporting higher sales in Australia and its The Good Guys brand for July.

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Business

Domino’s stock falls on ASX, while local share market won’t drink ‘Kool Aid’ on inflation

Australian fast-food chain Domino’s is losing ground on the local share market, as the global brand exits the country that made pizza famous.

The company that has the Australian franchise rights to Domino’s fell 6 per cent on the ASX on Friday, to $69.31.

ASX-listed Domino’s Pizza Enterprises not only runs the brand in Australia and New Zealand, but also in Belgium, France, The Netherlands, Japan, Germany, Luxembourg, Denmark and Taiwan, with a total of more than 3,100 stores.

The fall came after news broke that the global brand is exiting Italy, seven years after it opened its first store there.

While the Italian and Australian arms are not connected, some investors appear to have taken fright from the brand’s struggles internationally.

The rise of delivery services — such as Deliveroo, Just Eat and Glovo — took away any advantage the American company thought it would have in Italy, according to a report to investors in 2021 by its Italian franchise holder ePizza SpA.

In Australia, the same pressures are hitting the takeaway sector too.

Domino’s Pizza has more than 18,500 stores worldwide in at least 90 countries. Most are run as franchises, including in Australia.

Energy gains but ASX falls

The energy sector was the leading light on the Australian share market today, after oil prices climbed back above $US100 a barrel overnight, with the benchmark Brent crude oil futures contract sitting just below that mark at 4:50pm AEST.

Woodside Energy Group led the gains on the ASX 200, with a 3.7 per cent rise.

Beach Energy (+3.1 per cent) and Viva Energy (+2.6 per cent) also had strong sessions.

Coal miners New Hope (+3.5 per cent) and Whitehaven (+2.5 per cent) also jumped on board the energy bandwagon.

However, while rising energy costs are good for producers, they are bad for most of the rest of the economy and may also put pressure on interest rates to keep rising at a fast pace.

That saw the ASX 200 and All Ordinaries indices both fall 0.5 per cent, to 7,033 and 7,289 points respectively.

Industrials — many of which are exposed to rising energy costs — were the worst-performing sector, down 2 per cent.

Consumer cyclicals — generally very exposed to rising interest rates that reduce household spending — fell 1.2 per cent.

The worst-performing companies on the ASX 200 were Lake Resources (-13.5 per cent), Novonix (-8.6 per cent), Telix Pharmaceuticals (-7.7 per cent), Arena REIT No 1 (-6.7 per cent) and Nanosonics (- 6.4 per cent).

IAG returns to profit

Profit reporting season continued in Australia today.

Major results out today included insurer IAG.

It announced its net profit is up to $347 million. That comes after it lost more than $400 million the previous financial year.

Its profitability is up despite its overall revenue actually down $548 million overall on the previous financial year to $18.34 billion.

The insurer said its growth “predominantly reflected rate increases to offset inflationary pressures in the supply chain and natural perils.”

It said its insurance margins were 7.4 per cent below expectations after it had to pay out a large amount of premiums for natural disasters.

This year has seen enormous amounts of claims linked to the east coast floods and storms. IAG itself was hit by more than $1 billion.

IAG gained 1.1 per cent, to $4.66.

It is paying a dividend of 5 cents per share, down from last year’s 13-cent payout.

Investors not buying the inflation ‘Kool Aid’

The ASX traded down after Wall Street had mixed results overnight.

In the US, the Dow Jones closed flat, the S&P500 ended down 0.1 per cent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq was off 0.6 per cent.

Wall Street surged the previous day when US markets rose after the world’s biggest economy released its latest inflation data.

The data showed price hikes were starting to ease, which might soften concerns about another big rate hike of up to 0.75 per cent next month.

However, San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly said it was too early to “declare victory” on inflation, despite the better figures.

Ms Daly also said a 0.5 per cent rate hike in September was currently her “baseline”, and jobs and worker data that would be out soon also needed to be taken into consideration.

Oil up as people switch from costly gas

US 10-year Treasury yields have risen slightly, in an indication that markets, too, are still betting on rate hikes.

City Index analyst Tony Sycamore said it looked like investors will still betting on the rate US hike to be as high as 0.75 per cent.

“The interest rate market is clearly not drinking the same post-inflation Kool Aid that the equity market has slugged on,” he said.

“Financial markets initially reacted positively to [US inflation] data that showed inflation in the US is moderating, but gains [were] then whittled away on concerns the market may have overreacted,” ANZ also noted.

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Business

Wall Street flounders and ASX set to drop as markets mull over inflation ‘victory’

Australian shares are set to falter as global markets ponder whether the worst rate hikes are over.

Wall Street had mixed results overnight, with the Dow Jones closing flat, the S&P500 down 0.1 per cent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq off 0.6 per cent.

Wall Street surged the previous day when US markets rose after the world’s biggest economy released its latest inflation data.

The data showed price hikes were starting to ease, which might soften concerns about another big rate hike of up to 0.75 per cent next month.

However, San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly said it was too early to “declare victory” on inflation despite the better figures.

Ms Daly also said a 0.5 per cent rate hike in September was currently her “baseline”, and jobs and worker data that would be out soon also needed to be taken into consideration.

With Wall Street now retracting its flush of optimism, ASX 200 futures were also down in early-morning indications.

They were down 1.5 per cent by 7am AEST.

Oil up as people switch from costly gas

US 10-year Treasury yields have risen slightly in an indication that markets too are still betting on rate hikes.

“Financial markets initially reacted positively to [US inflation] data that showed inflation in the US is moderating, but gains then whittled away on concerns the market may have overreacted,” ANZ noted.

“At close, the Euro Stoxx 50 had gained 0.2 per cent, the FTSE 100 dropped 0.5 per cent, while the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones were largely unchanged.

“The yield on the US 10y note jumped 11bp higher to 2.89 per cent.”

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US

How Wall Street wooed Sen. Kyrsten Sinema and preserved its multi-billion dollar carried interest tax break

US Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) waits for an elevator to go to the Senate floor at the US Capitol in Washington, US August 2, 2022.

Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

Long before Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., held up a massive spending bill that promised to create jobs, invest in clean energy and tax the rich delivering on some of President Joe Biden’s and the Democratic party’s top campaign promises — those working at Wall Street investment firms had donated millions to the freshman senator’s campaign.

One of her main objections was the bill’s so-called carried interest tax provision — which would have closed an arcane loophole in tax law that allowed hedge fund managers, law firm partners and private equity executives, among others, to pay significantly less taxes than ordinary workers.

Closing that loophole, which was estimated to raise $14 billion in tax revenue over the next decade, was supposed to help pay for $433 billion in spending on climate and health initiatives.

To get Sinema’s vote, and the bill passed, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Democrats had “no choice” but to drop that provision from the broader Inflation Reduction Act. The bill instead imposes a 1% tax on all corporate share buybacks along with a minimum corporate tax rate of 15% on companies with more than $1 billion in revenues. The massive spending-and-tax package squeaked through the evenly divided Senate 51-50 on Sunday with Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote. It’s expected to pass the House later this week.

American Investment Council

As Biden rallied support in the Senate just over a year ago to close the loophole, the head of the trade group representing the world’s largest private equity firms began cranking up the pressure on Sinema and fellow Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, who is also a Democrat.

“Arizona Sens. Kyrsten Sinema and Mark Kelly will be critical voices and votes in the upcoming infrastructure debate,” Drew Maloney, the president and CEO of the American Investment Council, wrote in an op-ed published by an Arizona news outlet. The trade group represents some of the world’s largest private equity firms, including Blackstone, Apollo Global Management, Carlyle Group and KKR. “I urge them to continue supporting private investment’s role in helping small businesses here in Arizona and across the country,” he added.

One of the group’s top priorities was then, and is now, to preserve “carried interest capital gains and prevent elimination of interest deductibility.”

“Our team worked to ensure that members of Congress from both sides of the aisle understand how private equity directly employs workers and supports small businesses throughout their communities,” Maloney said in a statement to CNBC. “Our advocacy helped prevent punitive tax increases that would make it harder for investors to continue to support jobs, small businesses, and pensions in every state.”

Sinema’s been fighting to help preserve the loophole since at least last year when she told Democratic leaders she opposed closing the carried interest tax break. It was subsequently stripped out of a House bill, according to NBC News.

Sinema’s opposition, along with a bevy of concerns from Sen. Joe Manchin, DW.V., helped sink a much more sprawling version of the bill, which was significantly back to win over the two moderate Democrats.

‘What’s best for Arizona’

“Senator Sinema makes every decision based on one criteria: what’s best for Arizona,” Sinema’s spokeswoman Hannah Hurley told CNBC in an email. She said Sinema has been clear for over a year that she will only support tax reforms and revenue options that support Arizona’s economic growth and competitiveness. Sinema believes that “disincentivizing” investments in Arizona businesses would hurt the state’s economy and ability to create jobs, Hurley said.

In the weeks before Sunday’s vote, Sinema’s office was inundated with calls from lobbyists representing hedge funds, private equity firms and other money managers arguing against closing the carried interest tax loophole, according to people familiar with the matter. In the runup to last week’s deal, Ella’s senator and her staff fielded numerous in-person meetings with the industry, said some of the people familiar with these meetings, asking not to be identified to speak freely about private efforts to connect with Sinema .

Since she was elected to the Senate in 2018, Sinema has been a sympathetic ear to the industry. Last September, she huddled for a lunch meeting at a Philadelphia restaurant with Michael Forman, who manages at least $34 billion as CEO of a Philly-based investment firm FS Investments, and one of his executives, according to people familiar with the lunch. Forman did not return emails and calls seeking comment.

“Every single major industry that is not supportive of what’s in there is meeting with Sinema and she is meeting with anybody and everybody,” a lobbyist representing some of the biggest investment firms in the world told CNBC before Schumer announced late Thursday that Democrats agreed to drop the carried interest provision to get her vote. Sinema said she would work separately “to enact carried interest tax reforms.”

Private equity donors

Even before Sinema was elected to the Senate in 2018, she supported private equity investors as a member in the House of Representatives. In 2016, Sinema said the industry provided “billions of dollars each year to Main Street businesses,” according to the New York Times.

Sinema won a coveted seat on the powerful Banking Committee and made quick work networking with — and raising donations from — the industry she would oversee. Since the start of the 2018 election cycle, she’s raked in at least $2 million from the securities and investment industry — outraising Senate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown’s $770,000 in industry donations over the same time, according to Federal Election Commission data analyzed by the nonpartisan campaign finance watchdog OpenSecrets. Both Sinema and Brown, D-Ohio, are up for reelection in 2024.

Sinema’s take includes $10,000 in campaign donations from the American Investment Council’s political action committee, half of which was donated to her campaign after Maloney’s op-ed ran last year.

Employees at private equity firms Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, the Carlyle Group and Apollo Global Management donated more than $95,000, combined, to Sinema from the 2018 election through the current 2022 election cycle, according to campaign finance data.

That includes $11,600 in combined donations from KKR co-founders Henry Kravis and George Roberts, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Records show that Carlyle’s and Apollo’s political action committees also donated a combined $15,000 to Sinema’s reelection campaign.

Representatives for KKR and Carlyle declined to comment. Representatives for Apollo and Blackstone did not return requests for comment.

‘Hats off to the P/E lobby!’

The reason why some of Wall Street’s wealthiest money managers want to preserve the carried interest loophole is because it taxes their profits at a lower rate than the ordinary income. Instead of paying the standard individual income tax rates of up to 37% for individuals who earn more than $539,900 ($647,850 for married couples filing jointly), carried interest is taxed at the capital gains rate, which is usually around 20% for high-income earners, as long as the investment is held for at least three years.

Democrats wanted to make executives hold those investments for at least five years to get the better rate. The industry defends the carried interest tax break, saying it helps preserve investments that benefit small businesses. Critics say it’s just a massive tax break for the rich.

Lloyd Blankfein, the former CEO of Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs, mockingly congratulated the private equity industry on Twitter after the carried interest provision was stripped from the Inflation Reduction Act: “Hats off to the P/E lobby! After all these years and budget crises, the highest paid people still pay the lower capital gains tax on earnings from their labor.”

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Categories
US

How Wall Street wooed Sen. Kyrsten Sinema and preserved its multi-billion dollar carried interest tax break

US Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) waits for an elevator to go to the Senate floor at the US Capitol in Washington, US August 2, 2022.

Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

Long before Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., held up a massive spending bill that promised to create jobs, invest in clean energy and tax the rich delivering on some of President Joe Biden’s and the Democratic party’s top campaign promises — those working at Wall Street investment firms had donated millions to the freshman senator’s campaign.

One of her main objections was the bill’s so-called carried interest tax provision — which would have closed an arcane loophole in tax law that allowed hedge fund managers, law firm partners and private equity executives, among others, to pay significantly less taxes than ordinary workers.

Closing that loophole, which was estimated to raise $14 billion in tax revenue over the next decade, was supposed to help pay for $433 billion in spending on climate and health initiatives.

To get Sinema’s vote, and the bill passed, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Democrats had “no choice” but to drop that provision from the broader Inflation Reduction Act. The bill instead imposes a 1% tax on all corporate share buybacks along with a minimum corporate tax rate of 15% on companies with more than $1 billion in revenues. The massive spending-and-tax package squeaked through the evenly divided Senate 51-50 on Sunday with Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote. It’s expected to pass the House later this week.

American Investment Council

As Biden rallied support in the Senate just over a year ago to close the loophole, the head of the trade group representing the world’s largest private equity firms began cranking up the pressure on Sinema and fellow Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, who is also a Democrat.

“Arizona Sens. Kyrsten Sinema and Mark Kelly will be critical voices and votes in the upcoming infrastructure debate,” Drew Maloney, the president and CEO of the American Investment Council, wrote in an op-ed published by an Arizona news outlet. The trade group represents some of the world’s largest private equity firms, including Blackstone, Apollo Global Management, Carlyle Group and KKR. “I urge them to continue supporting private investment’s role in helping small businesses here in Arizona and across the country,” he added.

One of the group’s top priorities was then, and is now, to preserve “carried interest capital gains and prevent elimination of interest deductibility.”

“Our team worked to ensure that members of Congress from both sides of the aisle understand how private equity directly employs workers and supports small businesses throughout their communities,” Maloney said in a statement to CNBC. “Our advocacy helped prevent punitive tax increases that would make it harder for investors to continue to support jobs, small businesses, and pensions in every state.”

Sinema’s been fighting to help preserve the loophole since at least last year when she told Democratic leaders she opposed closing the carried interest tax break. It was subsequently stripped out of a House bill, according to NBC News.

Sinema’s opposition, along with a bevy of concerns from Sen. Joe Manchin, DW.V., helped sink a much more sprawling version of the bill, which was significantly back to win over the two moderate Democrats.

‘What’s best for Arizona’

“Senator Sinema makes every decision based on one criteria: what’s best for Arizona,” Sinema’s spokeswoman Hannah Hurley told CNBC in an email. She said Sinema has been clear for over a year that she will only support tax reforms and revenue options that support Arizona’s economic growth and competitiveness. Sinema believes that “disincentivizing” investments in Arizona businesses would hurt the state’s economy and ability to create jobs, Hurley said.

In the weeks before Sunday’s vote, Sinema’s office was inundated with calls from lobbyists representing hedge funds, private equity firms and other money managers arguing against closing the carried interest tax loophole, according to people familiar with the matter. In the runup to last week’s deal, Ella’s senator and her staff fielded numerous in-person meetings with the industry, said some of the people familiar with these meetings, asking not to be identified to speak freely about private efforts to connect with Sinema .

Since she was elected to the Senate in 2018, Sinema has been a sympathetic ear to the industry. Last September, she huddled for a lunch meeting at a Philadelphia restaurant with Michael Forman, who manages at least $34 billion as CEO of a Philly-based investment firm FS Investments, and one of his executives, according to people familiar with the lunch. Forman did not return emails and calls seeking comment.

“Every single major industry that is not supportive of what’s in there is meeting with Sinema and she is meeting with anybody and everybody,” a lobbyist representing some of the biggest investment firms in the world told CNBC before Schumer announced late Thursday that Democrats agreed to drop the carried interest provision to get her vote. Sinema said she would work separately “to enact carried interest tax reforms.”

Private equity donors

Even before Sinema was elected to the Senate in 2018, she supported private equity investors as a member in the House of Representatives. In 2016, Sinema said the industry provided “billions of dollars each year to Main Street businesses,” according to the New York Times.

Sinema won a coveted seat on the powerful Banking Committee and made quick work networking with — and raising donations from — the industry she would oversee. Since the start of the 2018 election cycle, she’s raked in at least $2 million from the securities and investment industry — outraising Senate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown’s $770,000 in industry donations over the same time, according to Federal Election Commission data analyzed by the nonpartisan campaign finance watchdog OpenSecrets. Both Sinema and Brown, D-Ohio, are up for reelection in 2024.

Sinema’s take includes $10,000 in campaign donations from the American Investment Council’s political action committee, half of which was donated to her campaign after Maloney’s op-ed ran last year.

Employees at private equity firms Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, the Carlyle Group and Apollo Global Management donated more than $95,000, combined, to Sinema from the 2018 election through the current 2022 election cycle, according to campaign finance data.

That includes $11,600 in combined donations from KKR co-founders Henry Kravis and George Roberts, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Records show that Carlyle’s and Apollo’s political action committees also donated a combined $15,000 to Sinema’s reelection campaign.

Representatives for KKR and Carlyle declined to comment. Representatives for Apollo and Blackstone did not return requests for comment.

‘Hats off to the P/E lobby!’

The reason why some of Wall Street’s wealthiest money managers want to preserve the carried interest loophole is because it taxes their profits at a lower rate than the ordinary income. Instead of paying the standard individual income tax rates of up to 37% for individuals who earn more than $539,900 ($647,850 for married couples filing jointly), carried interest is taxed at the capital gains rate, which is usually around 20% for high-income earners, as long as the investment is held for at least three years.

Democrats wanted to make executives hold those investments for at least five years to get the better rate. The industry defends the carried interest tax break, saying it helps preserve investments that benefit small businesses. Critics say it’s just a massive tax break for the rich.

Lloyd Blankfein, the former CEO of Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs, mockingly congratulated the private equity industry on Twitter after the carried interest provision was stripped from the Inflation Reduction Act: “Hats off to the P/E lobby! After all these years and budget crises, the highest paid people still pay the lower capital gains tax on earnings from their labor.”

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Categories
Business

UK braces for long recession after biggest interest rate hike in 27 years, ASX to open flat

Australian shares are likely to start the day relatively flat, after the Bank of England announced its biggest interest rate hike in 27 years and warned of a long recession for Britain.

ASX futures were up 0.1 per cent, to 6,891 points, by 8:40am AEST.

The Australian dollar was trading at 69.6 US cents, after rising 0.2 per cent overnight. This was largely due to a weaker US greenback.

It follows a lackluster session on Wall Street, which saw the Dow Jones index fall 0.3 per cent, to 32,727 points, the S&P 500 lose 0.1 per cent, to 4,152, and the Nasdaq Composite gain 0.4 per cent, to 12,721.

“The market is looking for direction after a strong bounce that highlighted the deep pessimism that had permeated the markets,” said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management.

“Many signs indicate that [US] inflation has peaked and the question now turns to how quickly it will come down or whether stickier components will keep it higher than the Fed [Federal Reserve] is comfortable with.”

Recession fears were also on the minds of oil traders, and the possibility this could sink energy demand, as crude prices dropped to their lowest level since before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February.

Brent crude plunged 3.6 per cent, to $US93.34 a barrel.

Spot gold jumped 1.5 per cent to a one-month high of $US1,792 an ounce.

Recession for the UK

Britain’s central bank raised interest rates by 0.5 percentage points on Thursday evening (AEST), its biggest increase since 1995.

This was despite the BoE warning that a long recession was on its way, as it rushed to smother a rise in inflation which is now expected to peak at 13.3 per cent in October — up from its previous forecast of 11 per cent.

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Business

ASX to rise, Wall Street snaps two-day losing streak as tech stocks rebound

Australian shares are expected to start the day higher as US technology stocks rebounded overnight, lifting the Nasdaq to a three-month high.

ASX futures were up 0.5 per cent, to 6,913 points, by 7:50am AEST.

The Australian dollar was trading at 69.5 US cents, after a 0.5 per cent rise overnight.

Wall Street’s main indexes rebounded, after dropping for the past two days.

The Nasdaq jumped 2.6 per cent, to 12,668 points, its highest level since early May, and the S&P 500 climbed 1.6 per cent, to end the session at 4,155, while the Dow Jones index rose 1.3 per cent, to 32,813.

Spot gold rose 0.2 per cent, to $US1,763.10 an ounce.

Meanwhile, oil prices fell sharply, with Brent crude futures down 3.4 per cent, to $US97.10 a barrel.

It comes after the OPEC+ group of oil-producing nations, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, announced that it would increase its supply by a mere 100,000 barrels per day.

On top of that, a new report from the Energy Information Administration showed an unexpected surge in US crude and gasoline stocks.

“Oil is still up 25 per cent from the beginning of the year,” said Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors in New York

“This recent drop is a combined result of that and a reflection that there is going to be an economic slowdown. The market is trying to find equilibrium.”

Stronger-than-expected earnings

Investor sentiment was also boosted by strong earnings reports from PayPal, CVS Health Corp and other companies.

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Categories
Business

ASX falls sharply, Wall Street sinks on US-China tension and economic uncertainty

Australian shares have dropped in morning trade, as ongoing economic uncertainty and flaring US-China tensions weighed on global market sentiment.

The arrival of US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi in Taipei, despite warnings from Beijing, prompted China to launch war plans and buzz the Taiwan Strait in protest.

The ASX 200 dropped by a steeper-than-expected 0.9 per cent, to 6,938 points, by 10:35am AEST.

Nearly every sector traded lower, with utilities and materials suffering the biggest losses. Seven out of every 10 stocks were in the red.

Some of today’s worst performers include Champion Iron (-5.3pc), APA Group (-3.2pc), Seven Group (-3.2pc) and Eagers Automotive (-3.2pc).

On the flip side, some of the best performing stocks were Pinnacle Investment Management (+10.7pc), Block (+4.9pc), and Lynas Rare Earths (+4.6pc).

Aussie dollar sinks

The Australian dollar fell 0.4 per cent, to 68.9 US cents. That was on top of its sharp loss of 1.5 per cent overnight.

The sell-off began yesterday, when the Reserve Bank lifted its cash rate target by 0.5 percentage points, which takes the new rate to a six-year high of 1.85 per cent.

The weaker Australian dollar was also driven by a stronger US greenback as investors piled into currencies that are seen as “safe havens”.

In that regard, the Japanese yen jumped 0.9 per cent against the greenback, and was on track for a fifth day of gains, its longest winning streak since 2020.

“There is the uncertainty surrounding Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan and there’s additional data, regarding economic softness,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research.

“Regarding recession [in the United States]it’s not a question of ‘if’ but ‘when’ and how deep.”

‘An open question’ about further rate hikes

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 slipped by 0.7 per cent, to end the session at 4,091 points.

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Business

ASX set to fail, ahead of Reserve Bank’s likely interest rate hike of 0.5 per cent

Australian shares are set to open lower, ahead of the Reserve Bank’s widely-expected interest rate hike this afternoon which will lead to another sharp rise in mortgage repayments.

ASX futures were down 0.3 per cent, to 6,880 points, by 8:25am AEST.

The Australian dollar was trading at a six-week high of 70.2 US cents, following a 0.6 per cent rise overnight.

According to many Australian economists, the most likely outcome of today’s RBA announcement will see the central bank lift it cash rate target by a larger-than-usual 0.5 percentage points.

This would take the new rate to 1.85 per cent, a big jump since the record low of 0.1 per cent in May. It would also be the highest cash rate since April 2016.

The central bank is expected to keep lifting rates aggressively over the coming months, as it desperately tries to bring inflation down from its 21-year high.

Effectively, it will do so by lifting rates to a level that makes consumers feel poorer so they visit the shops less, and spend more on their loan repayments.

House prices are also feeling the crunch. Since interest rates begin to rise sharply in May, property values ​​have dropped by 2 per cent — the fastest drop since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008, according to figures from CoreLogic.

‘A lot of questions’ about the economic downturn

The local share market is also likely to follow a weak lead from Wall Street, which we see-sawed on Monday, local time, as crude oil prices plunged and the looming possibility of US recession curbed the appetite for taking risks.

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US

7 injured in downtown Orlando shooting

Seven people were injured in a shooting in downtown Orlando late Saturday night, Orlando Police say. Orlando Police Chief Eric Smith says a large fight broke out shortly before 2:30 am Saturday night on Wall Street and South Orange Avenue. During that time, one of the people involved pulled out a handgun and fired into the crowd. Six victims were taken to Orlando Regional Medical Center. The seventh went to Advent Health. Police said they are all expected to survive. At this time, no suspect information has been released. Police are checking surveillance video from the area. Chief Smith says there is no active threat to the downtown area. He also says, “The Orlando Police Department is committed to ensuring the safety of our residents, businesses and visitors. We have increased safety measures and resources in the area and are already looking at increasing those resources and security measure further. Additionally, we are working with businesses in the area to see if there are any videos of the incident.” Orlando Police is asking anyone with information to call Crimeline at (800) 423-8477. Stay with WESH 2 News for updates on this developing story.

Seven people were injured in a shooting in downtown Orlando late Saturday night, Orlando Police say.

Orlando Police Chief Eric Smith says a large fight broke out shortly before 2:30 am Saturday night on Wall Street and South Orange Avenue.

During that time, one of the people involved pulled out a handgun and fired into the crowd.

Six victims were taken to Orlando Regional Medical Center. The seventh went to Advent Health. Police said they are all expected to survive.

At this time, no suspect information has been released. Police are checking surveillance video from the area.

Chief Smith says there is no active threat to the downtown area. He also says, “The Orlando Police Department is committed to ensuring the safety of our residents, businesses and visitors. We have increased safety measures and resources in the area and are already looking at increasing those resources and security measure further. Additionally, we are working with businesses in the area to see if there are any videos of the incident.”

Orlando Police is asking anyone with information to call Crimeline at (800) 423-8477.

Stay with WESH 2 News for updates on this developing story.

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