gas crisis – Michmutters
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Gas users and experts call for federal crackdown on east coast ‘gas cartel’

John Irwin is the general manager of Steritech and on the frontline of Australia’s ongoing gas crisis.

“Without natural gas, we don’t operate our operations,” he said.

Steritech was one of the hundreds of manufacturers left exposed to the spot market when energy retailer Weston Energy collapsed in July.

Only two other gas providers were willing to consider signing a new supply deal with Steritech.

“And both of them were very unwilling to negotiate what we would consider a fair and long term price,” Mr Irwin said.

“It’s take it or leave it, you really don’t have a choice.”

Steritech is now paying up to four times what it used to for gas.

Mr Irwin said the dramatic price hike will eventually be passed through to patients on surgery operating tables around the country.

His company sterilises medical devices in procedure packs that are used in approximately 90 per cent of major operations in Australia.

“So increasing the price of those means that your health insurance is going to go up, and governments’ are going to have to spend more money in the public system for the materials being used,” Mr Irwin said.

Plenty of gas

Australia has plenty of gas and for decades the nation enjoyed cheap prices of around $5-a-gigajoule.

Technology enabled gas to be liquefied and sent overseas and Australia’s price became linked to the global market where prices are higher.

Recently prices on the east coast have skyrocketed as producers ramp up exports to supply a desperate global market caught short because of the war in Ukraine.

Mr Irwin does not hold back when it comes to who is responsible for the gas crisis.

“Both sides of politics have been in a situation where I don’t think they’ve represented the country too well,” he said.

“You’ve got to go back and look at who came up with a deal that does not ensure that we had appropriate domestic gas.

“The Australian community owns the gas in the ground, we license it out to gas companies to be able to extract it and deliver it to us, and you would expect that’s going to be done at a fair price.”

Malcolm Turnbull was prime minister in 2017 when he sat down with the heads of Santos, Shell and Origin and got them to agree to supply enough gas to the domestic market to fill projected shortfalls.

But he did not impose export or price controls, much like the current federal government in this current gas crisis.

LNG carrier
Australia exports more LNG than it uses. (Supplied)

Australians have been left paying more for our gas than overseas customers for long periods.

Last week the ACCC delivered a scathing report on the east coast gas market which detailed concerns about price-fixing behavior by exporters.

It also found profits had exploded compared to the cost of extracting gas.

It made similar findings in 2015, concluding that gas suppliers on the east coast had used a market restructure to hike prices on domestic consumers and evidence of collusion.

In its most recent report, the consumer watchdog concluded the east coast market is highly concentrated and dominated by the three LNG exporters, APLNG, GLNG and QCLNG, and their associates – controlling 90 per cent of the proven and probable gas reserves.

The damning ACCC report found exporters were withdrawing more from the domestic market than they were supplying, risking a 56 petajoule shortfall in 2023.

“On top of that it showed that they [exporters] pretty much ignored the heads of agreement that they had agreed with the Australian government [in 2017],” Mark Ogge, principal adviser on climate and energy at the Australian Institute, said.

“They weren’t providing gas at reasonable prices and reasonable terms and conditions to Australian gas customers – they were sending it overseas instead.

“The ACCC report doesn’t use the word cartel, but it describes cartel behaviour.

“If there’s cartel behaviour, if they have been colluding to keep prices high, then they’ve broken the law and that should be investigated.”

Mark Ogge, Australia Institute
Mark Ogge is a gas and energy analyst at the Australia Institute.(ABC News: Peter Drought )

The Australian Energy Market Regulator has said it plans to investigate potentially illegal behavior by the gas companies.

The ACCC said it will review the arrangements of exporters and “where appropriate consider enforcement action”.

Bruce Robertson, an energy analyst with the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) said Australia was in “a rolling energy crisis caused by the gas cartel”.

“They control and fix the price through their contracting mechanisms. All these are detailed in the ACCC report, and if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, waddles like a duck, it is a duck.

“What the gas cartel is doing is starving the Australian market of gas to force up the price. That’s what cartels do. They fix prices.

“This is a price fixing cartel. It’s illegal and it should be dealt with with the full force of the Australian law.”

Bruce Robertson, Energy Finance Analyst at IEEFA
Energy analyst Bruce Robertson says gas companies on the east coast act like a “price fixing cartel”.(ABC News: Wiriya Sati )

Since the ACCC report was released on August 1, the gas price has been noticeably lower dropping to as low as $10.50-a-gigajoule.

“The gas price was as high as $55-a-gigajoule just two weeks ago in Sydney. So what we’ve seen is a collapse in the gas price. That could not have occurred without the gas cartel fixing the price,” Mr Robertson said.

“They’ve simply flooded the market in the short term, responding to political pressure that has come on with the ridiculous prices that they were charging Australian consumers.”

The peak body for gas producers the Australian Petroleum Production & Exploration Association (APPEA), said prices had dropped because of planned maintenance on LNG export facilities.

“That’s meant more gas has been able to flow into the market because those facilities are down for scheduled maintenance,” Damian Dwyer, APPEA acting chief executive said.

“And that’s a regular thing that happens this time of year and we’ve also seen warmer weather conditions that have meant less draw on gas for heating and power generation purposes than we saw in May.”

Mr Dwyer said there had been no collusion between gas companies.

“There’s been no behavior of that kind going on, what we’ve got is a market that has been under significant pressure,” he said.

“And that’s the energy market more broadly, not the gas market, the invasion of Ukraine and the international geopolitical tensions and disruptions to the energy market that have arisen from that.”

Electricity prices are going up

Gas is known as a price-setter in the National Electricity Market because gas-fired power plants step in to “smooth” the demand for energy when aging coal power stations are down or renewables aren’t working.

“A fair proportion of the electricity we use is generated by gas power stations at the moment,” Mr Ogge said.

“And with the price of gas going up to $40-a-gigajoule it meant that some gas power stations couldn’t produce gas for under $500-a-megawatt-hour.

“Previously the wholesale price of electricity was around $80 MWh, and these enormously high prices will flow onto Australian households and businesses.”

Damian Dwyer, APPEA Acting Chief Executive
Damian Dwyer, APPEA acting chief executive, says there is no east coast gas cartel.(ABC News: David Sciasci)

What’s the solution?

Unlike in Western Australia, which requires companies to reserve 15 per cent of gas for domestic use, there are no export limits or price caps on east coast gas.

Innes Willox from AiGroup said the longer the gas crisis drags on the more justification there was for an east coast reservation policy.

“It really is going to need government intervention, both at a federal and state level,” he said.

“And it’s going to need governments, quite frankly, to put their foot on the throat of gas producers to make sure they uphold their end of the bargain.

Mr Willox spent much of last year acting on behalf of industry trying to set up a code of conduct between gas producers and consumers – in the end, it fell over.

“Gas producers refused to touch issues around price, they wouldn’t go near it with a barge pole,” he said.

“They wouldn’t have price, content transparency as any part of a code of conduct, which rendered any sort of idea of ​​a code of conduct completely useless, quite frankly.”

Innes Willox
Innes Willox, AiGroup chief executive, says without energy at fair prices there will be no industry.

AiGroup does not support a “full blown reservation policy” but one that would only apply to new gas fields and take into consideration a “national interest test” on whether Australia had enough domestic supply.

Mr Robertson disagrees and argues that there should be no hesitation to apply a retrospective gas reservation policy with price controls, because gas companies have broken their original approval conditions by affecting the domestic market with exports.

“These players are now buying gas out of the domestic market, this is in direct contravention of their approval conditions,” Mr Robertson said.

“But law breaking just seems to go on and on in the gas industry in Australia and the government seems impotent.”

Windfall profits tax

Mr Ogge argues for a windfall profits tax, as the UK government has recently adopted in the face of soaring energy prices.

“A windfall profits tax is the only thing that we know will be effective,” he said.

“That’s because it would be very effective in reducing gas prices, because it removes the incentive for the LNG producers to export all their excess gas overseas to cash in on high gas prices.

“And it removes the incentive for them to charge Australian customers exorbitant prices for the gas that we use.

“On top of that, it provides funds for us to compensate Australian customers and businesses and households, and, money to actually help us electrify and get off gas so that we’re not permanently over the barrel of high international prices.”

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Business

Simple way to fix Australia’s east coast energy crisis

Slowly but surely, the story of the greatest rip-off in Aussie history is coming out. It’s not a great train robbery. Not a Sydney wealth management fraud. It is an investment boom that miraculously turned east Australian resources bounty into a pair of concrete boots for the broader economy.

This is the sorry tale of how foreign cartels stole Australian gas reserves and fed them to China while the local economy was starved of it.

It began during the GFC-period when advances in unconventional gas extraction (fracking, shale, coal seam etc) made huge reserves in Queensland viable for extraction. Three conglomerates of largely multinational firms built infrastructure systems across the east of the state to extract, pipe and freeze that gas for export.

They spent some $80 billion doing so, in a mad race that duplicated everything, over-invested in production and crashed the global gas price, forcing them to write off tens of billions on their investment.

Meanwhile, in poor little Australia, which actually owned the gas, the moment the export trains opened the price began to rise because there was not enough left over for locals.

The price rose from $4Gj relentlessly until we were paying $20Gj in 2017 – more for our own gas than our Asian customers.

Worse, because gas sets the marginal cost of electricity on the east coast, whenever its cost rises, power prices go mad as well, hugely multiplying the negative impacts on the economy.

The Turnbull government recognized the folly of this in 2017 and installed the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism (ADGSM). That crashed the gas price back under $10Gj, though it remained much higher than it had been traditionally.

But that was not the end of it. Whenever there has been cold weather, or coal or other outages in the power market, or international shortages, the gas cartel has popped up again to squeeze local prices higher.

This serial debacle most recently came to a head with the war in Ukraine and Russian sanctions which have left the world short of gas and Australian prices have gone to as high as $65Gj, the market has been suspended and electricity prices have been driven up by 600 per cent to boot.

This is a $50 billion gouge by the energy cartels that are effectively war-profiteering at every Australian’s expense. Soon, these price rises will deliver an extra 6 per cent CPI inflation, ensuring the RBA has to drive interest rates higher than many households can bear.

And for what? The gas cartel will not invest anymore. There’ll be no jobs created. Governments will receive no tax dividend owing to broken laws and the massive writedowns on the projects.

Indeed, this episode will be recounted by economic historians as the worst case of the “resources curse” ever. (It’s sometimes called Dutch Disease after the Netherlands’ broader economy suffered in the ’70s with the development of North Sea oil resources that lifted its currency and falling competitiveness hollowed out the industry.)

If Dutch Disease is a national cold, then Australian Disease is like an inoperable brain tumour. It has allowed miners to steal the resource, pay no tax, force scarcity pricing on the extractive nation, and raise the currency. All of which have already decimated industry, hobbled national income, and will soon begin to deflate household wealth as well.

how to fix it

The new Labor Government has been forced to confront this reality to some extent. Untenable energy prices have triggered a review of the Turnbull domestic reservation mechanism. This is all to the good, but what should it look like?

First, the reformed ADGSM must include a price trigger. As it stands, it is a volume measure that is too unwieldy to be effective. The ADGSM should automatically divert gas from export the moment the price goes over $7Gj. This is plenty high enough for the gas cartel to make money out of it. The reserves are quite cheap and since they’ve written off so much investment, the gas has become even cheaper on a cash basis.

The new ADGSM should apply to all three conglomerates. Although it is the Santos-led GLNG that has come to be most short of gas and openly lied about it, all three joint ventures knew what they were doing when they overinvested to leave Australia short of gas. Besides, as Bass Strait gas bleeds out, the shortage will only get worse and the future will require as much as 15 per cent of the gas currently exported to remain at home. That’s a burden best shared by all three projects.

A second option is to use export levies. If we set a baseline for profits at pre-Ukraine war prices around $7Gj, then levy the gas cartel for every export dollar above that price, then the local price of gas would collapse and Australians collect the war windfall instead of firms that have no right to it.

Third, we could install a super-profits tax on the cartel and recycle that revenue as energy subsidies for everybody else. That is a pretty clunky solution but it delivers the same end.

With any and all of these solutions, the cartel will scream “sovereign risk”. But so what? It was its mistakes that created this untenable situation. Australians should not have to pay for them.

Moreover, export gas contracts are renegotiated all the time. Just a few weeks ago, one member of the gas cartel, Shell, declared force majeur (that is undelivered but contracted gas) over something as trivial as a maritime labor dispute.

The larger truth is that the cartel is a risk to the sovereign and everyone within it.

Read related topics:Cost Of Living

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