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How Wall Street wooed Sen. Kyrsten Sinema and preserved its multi-billion dollar carried interest tax break

US Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) waits for an elevator to go to the Senate floor at the US Capitol in Washington, US August 2, 2022.

Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

Long before Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., held up a massive spending bill that promised to create jobs, invest in clean energy and tax the rich delivering on some of President Joe Biden’s and the Democratic party’s top campaign promises — those working at Wall Street investment firms had donated millions to the freshman senator’s campaign.

One of her main objections was the bill’s so-called carried interest tax provision — which would have closed an arcane loophole in tax law that allowed hedge fund managers, law firm partners and private equity executives, among others, to pay significantly less taxes than ordinary workers.

Closing that loophole, which was estimated to raise $14 billion in tax revenue over the next decade, was supposed to help pay for $433 billion in spending on climate and health initiatives.

To get Sinema’s vote, and the bill passed, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Democrats had “no choice” but to drop that provision from the broader Inflation Reduction Act. The bill instead imposes a 1% tax on all corporate share buybacks along with a minimum corporate tax rate of 15% on companies with more than $1 billion in revenues. The massive spending-and-tax package squeaked through the evenly divided Senate 51-50 on Sunday with Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote. It’s expected to pass the House later this week.

American Investment Council

As Biden rallied support in the Senate just over a year ago to close the loophole, the head of the trade group representing the world’s largest private equity firms began cranking up the pressure on Sinema and fellow Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, who is also a Democrat.

“Arizona Sens. Kyrsten Sinema and Mark Kelly will be critical voices and votes in the upcoming infrastructure debate,” Drew Maloney, the president and CEO of the American Investment Council, wrote in an op-ed published by an Arizona news outlet. The trade group represents some of the world’s largest private equity firms, including Blackstone, Apollo Global Management, Carlyle Group and KKR. “I urge them to continue supporting private investment’s role in helping small businesses here in Arizona and across the country,” he added.

One of the group’s top priorities was then, and is now, to preserve “carried interest capital gains and prevent elimination of interest deductibility.”

“Our team worked to ensure that members of Congress from both sides of the aisle understand how private equity directly employs workers and supports small businesses throughout their communities,” Maloney said in a statement to CNBC. “Our advocacy helped prevent punitive tax increases that would make it harder for investors to continue to support jobs, small businesses, and pensions in every state.”

Sinema’s been fighting to help preserve the loophole since at least last year when she told Democratic leaders she opposed closing the carried interest tax break. It was subsequently stripped out of a House bill, according to NBC News.

Sinema’s opposition, along with a bevy of concerns from Sen. Joe Manchin, DW.V., helped sink a much more sprawling version of the bill, which was significantly back to win over the two moderate Democrats.

‘What’s best for Arizona’

“Senator Sinema makes every decision based on one criteria: what’s best for Arizona,” Sinema’s spokeswoman Hannah Hurley told CNBC in an email. She said Sinema has been clear for over a year that she will only support tax reforms and revenue options that support Arizona’s economic growth and competitiveness. Sinema believes that “disincentivizing” investments in Arizona businesses would hurt the state’s economy and ability to create jobs, Hurley said.

In the weeks before Sunday’s vote, Sinema’s office was inundated with calls from lobbyists representing hedge funds, private equity firms and other money managers arguing against closing the carried interest tax loophole, according to people familiar with the matter. In the runup to last week’s deal, Ella’s senator and her staff fielded numerous in-person meetings with the industry, said some of the people familiar with these meetings, asking not to be identified to speak freely about private efforts to connect with Sinema .

Since she was elected to the Senate in 2018, Sinema has been a sympathetic ear to the industry. Last September, she huddled for a lunch meeting at a Philadelphia restaurant with Michael Forman, who manages at least $34 billion as CEO of a Philly-based investment firm FS Investments, and one of his executives, according to people familiar with the lunch. Forman did not return emails and calls seeking comment.

“Every single major industry that is not supportive of what’s in there is meeting with Sinema and she is meeting with anybody and everybody,” a lobbyist representing some of the biggest investment firms in the world told CNBC before Schumer announced late Thursday that Democrats agreed to drop the carried interest provision to get her vote. Sinema said she would work separately “to enact carried interest tax reforms.”

Private equity donors

Even before Sinema was elected to the Senate in 2018, she supported private equity investors as a member in the House of Representatives. In 2016, Sinema said the industry provided “billions of dollars each year to Main Street businesses,” according to the New York Times.

Sinema won a coveted seat on the powerful Banking Committee and made quick work networking with — and raising donations from — the industry she would oversee. Since the start of the 2018 election cycle, she’s raked in at least $2 million from the securities and investment industry — outraising Senate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown’s $770,000 in industry donations over the same time, according to Federal Election Commission data analyzed by the nonpartisan campaign finance watchdog OpenSecrets. Both Sinema and Brown, D-Ohio, are up for reelection in 2024.

Sinema’s take includes $10,000 in campaign donations from the American Investment Council’s political action committee, half of which was donated to her campaign after Maloney’s op-ed ran last year.

Employees at private equity firms Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, the Carlyle Group and Apollo Global Management donated more than $95,000, combined, to Sinema from the 2018 election through the current 2022 election cycle, according to campaign finance data.

That includes $11,600 in combined donations from KKR co-founders Henry Kravis and George Roberts, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Records show that Carlyle’s and Apollo’s political action committees also donated a combined $15,000 to Sinema’s reelection campaign.

Representatives for KKR and Carlyle declined to comment. Representatives for Apollo and Blackstone did not return requests for comment.

‘Hats off to the P/E lobby!’

The reason why some of Wall Street’s wealthiest money managers want to preserve the carried interest loophole is because it taxes their profits at a lower rate than the ordinary income. Instead of paying the standard individual income tax rates of up to 37% for individuals who earn more than $539,900 ($647,850 for married couples filing jointly), carried interest is taxed at the capital gains rate, which is usually around 20% for high-income earners, as long as the investment is held for at least three years.

Democrats wanted to make executives hold those investments for at least five years to get the better rate. The industry defends the carried interest tax break, saying it helps preserve investments that benefit small businesses. Critics say it’s just a massive tax break for the rich.

Lloyd Blankfein, the former CEO of Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs, mockingly congratulated the private equity industry on Twitter after the carried interest provision was stripped from the Inflation Reduction Act: “Hats off to the P/E lobby! After all these years and budget crises, the highest paid people still pay the lower capital gains tax on earnings from their labor.”

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Categories
US

How Wall Street wooed Sen. Kyrsten Sinema and preserved its multi-billion dollar carried interest tax break

US Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) waits for an elevator to go to the Senate floor at the US Capitol in Washington, US August 2, 2022.

Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

Long before Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., held up a massive spending bill that promised to create jobs, invest in clean energy and tax the rich delivering on some of President Joe Biden’s and the Democratic party’s top campaign promises — those working at Wall Street investment firms had donated millions to the freshman senator’s campaign.

One of her main objections was the bill’s so-called carried interest tax provision — which would have closed an arcane loophole in tax law that allowed hedge fund managers, law firm partners and private equity executives, among others, to pay significantly less taxes than ordinary workers.

Closing that loophole, which was estimated to raise $14 billion in tax revenue over the next decade, was supposed to help pay for $433 billion in spending on climate and health initiatives.

To get Sinema’s vote, and the bill passed, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Democrats had “no choice” but to drop that provision from the broader Inflation Reduction Act. The bill instead imposes a 1% tax on all corporate share buybacks along with a minimum corporate tax rate of 15% on companies with more than $1 billion in revenues. The massive spending-and-tax package squeaked through the evenly divided Senate 51-50 on Sunday with Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote. It’s expected to pass the House later this week.

American Investment Council

As Biden rallied support in the Senate just over a year ago to close the loophole, the head of the trade group representing the world’s largest private equity firms began cranking up the pressure on Sinema and fellow Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, who is also a Democrat.

“Arizona Sens. Kyrsten Sinema and Mark Kelly will be critical voices and votes in the upcoming infrastructure debate,” Drew Maloney, the president and CEO of the American Investment Council, wrote in an op-ed published by an Arizona news outlet. The trade group represents some of the world’s largest private equity firms, including Blackstone, Apollo Global Management, Carlyle Group and KKR. “I urge them to continue supporting private investment’s role in helping small businesses here in Arizona and across the country,” he added.

One of the group’s top priorities was then, and is now, to preserve “carried interest capital gains and prevent elimination of interest deductibility.”

“Our team worked to ensure that members of Congress from both sides of the aisle understand how private equity directly employs workers and supports small businesses throughout their communities,” Maloney said in a statement to CNBC. “Our advocacy helped prevent punitive tax increases that would make it harder for investors to continue to support jobs, small businesses, and pensions in every state.”

Sinema’s been fighting to help preserve the loophole since at least last year when she told Democratic leaders she opposed closing the carried interest tax break. It was subsequently stripped out of a House bill, according to NBC News.

Sinema’s opposition, along with a bevy of concerns from Sen. Joe Manchin, DW.V., helped sink a much more sprawling version of the bill, which was significantly back to win over the two moderate Democrats.

‘What’s best for Arizona’

“Senator Sinema makes every decision based on one criteria: what’s best for Arizona,” Sinema’s spokeswoman Hannah Hurley told CNBC in an email. She said Sinema has been clear for over a year that she will only support tax reforms and revenue options that support Arizona’s economic growth and competitiveness. Sinema believes that “disincentivizing” investments in Arizona businesses would hurt the state’s economy and ability to create jobs, Hurley said.

In the weeks before Sunday’s vote, Sinema’s office was inundated with calls from lobbyists representing hedge funds, private equity firms and other money managers arguing against closing the carried interest tax loophole, according to people familiar with the matter. In the runup to last week’s deal, Ella’s senator and her staff fielded numerous in-person meetings with the industry, said some of the people familiar with these meetings, asking not to be identified to speak freely about private efforts to connect with Sinema .

Since she was elected to the Senate in 2018, Sinema has been a sympathetic ear to the industry. Last September, she huddled for a lunch meeting at a Philadelphia restaurant with Michael Forman, who manages at least $34 billion as CEO of a Philly-based investment firm FS Investments, and one of his executives, according to people familiar with the lunch. Forman did not return emails and calls seeking comment.

“Every single major industry that is not supportive of what’s in there is meeting with Sinema and she is meeting with anybody and everybody,” a lobbyist representing some of the biggest investment firms in the world told CNBC before Schumer announced late Thursday that Democrats agreed to drop the carried interest provision to get her vote. Sinema said she would work separately “to enact carried interest tax reforms.”

Private equity donors

Even before Sinema was elected to the Senate in 2018, she supported private equity investors as a member in the House of Representatives. In 2016, Sinema said the industry provided “billions of dollars each year to Main Street businesses,” according to the New York Times.

Sinema won a coveted seat on the powerful Banking Committee and made quick work networking with — and raising donations from — the industry she would oversee. Since the start of the 2018 election cycle, she’s raked in at least $2 million from the securities and investment industry — outraising Senate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown’s $770,000 in industry donations over the same time, according to Federal Election Commission data analyzed by the nonpartisan campaign finance watchdog OpenSecrets. Both Sinema and Brown, D-Ohio, are up for reelection in 2024.

Sinema’s take includes $10,000 in campaign donations from the American Investment Council’s political action committee, half of which was donated to her campaign after Maloney’s op-ed ran last year.

Employees at private equity firms Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, the Carlyle Group and Apollo Global Management donated more than $95,000, combined, to Sinema from the 2018 election through the current 2022 election cycle, according to campaign finance data.

That includes $11,600 in combined donations from KKR co-founders Henry Kravis and George Roberts, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Records show that Carlyle’s and Apollo’s political action committees also donated a combined $15,000 to Sinema’s reelection campaign.

Representatives for KKR and Carlyle declined to comment. Representatives for Apollo and Blackstone did not return requests for comment.

‘Hats off to the P/E lobby!’

The reason why some of Wall Street’s wealthiest money managers want to preserve the carried interest loophole is because it taxes their profits at a lower rate than the ordinary income. Instead of paying the standard individual income tax rates of up to 37% for individuals who earn more than $539,900 ($647,850 for married couples filing jointly), carried interest is taxed at the capital gains rate, which is usually around 20% for high-income earners, as long as the investment is held for at least three years.

Democrats wanted to make executives hold those investments for at least five years to get the better rate. The industry defends the carried interest tax break, saying it helps preserve investments that benefit small businesses. Critics say it’s just a massive tax break for the rich.

Lloyd Blankfein, the former CEO of Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs, mockingly congratulated the private equity industry on Twitter after the carried interest provision was stripped from the Inflation Reduction Act: “Hats off to the P/E lobby! After all these years and budget crises, the highest paid people still pay the lower capital gains tax on earnings from their labor.”

.

Categories
US

Trump tax returns must be given to Congress, court says

Former US President Donald Trump speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) held at the Hilton Anatole on August 06, 2022 in Dallas, Texas. CPAC began in 1974, and is a conference that brings together and hosts conservative organizations, activists, and world leaders in discussing current events and future political agendas.

Brandon Bell | Getty Images

CNBC Politics

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The appeals panel said the House committee, which has sought Trump’s tax records for years, had the right under the law to obtain them from the US Treasury Department.

The decision upholds a prior decision, by a federal district court judge, which was issued in December.

Trump is likely to ask the full DC Circuit Court of Appeals to re-hear the case or petition the US Supreme Court to hear an appeal of Tuesday’s ruling.

Ways and Means Committee Chairman Rep. Richard Neal, D-Mass., in a statement reacting to the ruling said, “With great patience, we followed the judicial process, and yet again, our position has been affirmed by the Courts.”

“‘I’m pleased that this long-anticipated opinion makes clear the law is on our side. When we receive the returns, we will begin our oversight of the IRS’s mandatory presidential audit program,” Neal said.

Trump’s spokeswoman and William Consovoy, an attorney for Trump, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

This is breaking news. Check back for updates.

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US

Biden signs China competition bill to boost US chipmakers

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President Joe Biden on Tuesday signed a bipartisan bill that aims to strengthen US competitiveness with China by investing billions of dollars in domestic semiconductor manufacturing and science research.

“Today is a day for builders. Today America is delivering,” Biden said at the signing ceremony outside the White House. He was joined by a crowd of hundreds, including tech executives, union presidents and political leaders from both parties.

The bill, dubbed the Chips and Science Act, includes more than $52 billion for US companies producing computer chips, as well as billions more in tax credits to encourage investment in semiconductor manufacturing. It also provides tens of billions of dollars to fund scientific research and development, and to spur the innovation and development of other US tech.

The Biden administration also contended that the legislation will “unlock hundreds of billions more” in private spending in the industry. The White House said Tuesday that multiple companies, “spurred” by the chips bill, have announced more than $44 billion in new semiconductor manufacturing investments.

US President Joe Biden (C) signs HR 4346, the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC, on August 9, 2022.

Mandel Ngan | Afp | Getty Images

Of that sum, $40 billion is coming from Micron’s investment in memory chip manufacturing. The White House said the company’s initiative will yield 8,000 new jobs and increase the US market share of memory chip production to 10% from 2%.

A newly announced partnership between Qualcomm and GlobalFoundries, meanwhile, includes $4.2 billion in chip production as part of an expansion of GlobalFoundries’ upstate New York facility, the White House said.

Advocates say the funding is needed to sharpen America’s technological edge and reinvigorate its lagging chip industry. The US produces only about 10% of the world’s supply of semiconductors, whereas East Asia accounts for 75% of global production — including most of the top-tier chips, according to the White House.

Semiconductors are critical pieces of an array of products including consumer electronics, automobiles, health care equipment and weapons systems. The Covid-19 pandemic sparked a chip shortage and strained supply chains, highlighting America’s dependence on foreign-made chips and revealing a potential national security threat, officials say.

The signing comes as Biden and congressional Democrats cap a flurry of activity before lawmakers leave Washington for the rest of the month and turn their attention to midterm election campaigns.

Senate Democrats on Sunday passed a sweeping bill to fund ambitious climate, energy and health policies by raising taxes on rich corporations and reforming prescription drug pricing. The bill, a major piece of Biden’s agenda that Democrats had worked on for well over a year, squeaked through with no Republican support in the chamber, which is evenly split by party. Vice President Kamala Harris cast the tie-breaking vote.

In late June, Biden also signed a bipartisan bill to strengthen gun regulations, including by enhancing requirements for background checks. The legislation sped through Congress in the wake of a deadly mass shooting at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas, in which a single gunman killed 19 students and two teachers.

And last week, Biden revealed that a US strike in Afghanistan killed top al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri, who was considered a mastermind behind the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

Biden is also expected to sign another bill this week that bolsters health benefits for veterans who were exposed to chemicals that billowed from toxic burn pits.

That bill passed with overwhelming bipartisan support after Republicans temporarily blocked it. The move stoked outrage from some veterans’ groups, as well as comedian Jon Stewart, who emerged as a leading advocate.

Biden’s already-middling approval ratings have sunk in recent months, as global inflation and supply chain issues take a toll on Americans’ wallets at the grocery store and the gas station. His unpopularity of him, paired with a tough political map and other political headwinds, has fueled concerns among Democrats that they could suffer a route in the November midterms that results in Republicans taking control of one or both chambers of Congress.

But the latest polls show Democrats’ chances of keeping the Senate have improved, and Biden on Monday predicted that the climate and tax bill’s passage will “immediately help” in the midterms.

.

Categories
US

Biden signs China competition bill to boost US chipmakers

[ The stream is slated to start at 10 a.m. ET. Please refresh if you do not see a player above at that time.]

President Joe Biden on Tuesday signed a bipartisan bill that aims to strengthen US competitiveness with China by investing billions of dollars in domestic semiconductor manufacturing and science research.

“Today is a day for builders. Today America is delivering,” Biden said at the signing ceremony outside the White House. He was joined by a crowd of hundreds, including tech executives, union presidents and political leaders from both parties.

The bill, dubbed the Chips and Science Act, includes more than $52 billion for US companies producing computer chips, as well as billions more in tax credits to encourage investment in semiconductor manufacturing. It also provides tens of billions of dollars to fund scientific research and development, and to spur the innovation and development of other US tech.

The Biden administration also contended that the legislation will “unlock hundreds of billions more” in private spending in the industry. The White House said Tuesday that multiple companies, “spurred” by the chips bill, have announced more than $44 billion in new semiconductor manufacturing investments.

US President Joe Biden (C) signs HR 4346, the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC, on August 9, 2022.

Mandel Ngan | Afp | Getty Images

Of that sum, $40 billion is coming from Micron’s investment in memory chip manufacturing. The White House said the company’s initiative will yield 8,000 new jobs and increase the US market share of memory chip production to 10% from 2%.

A newly announced partnership between Qualcomm and GlobalFoundries, meanwhile, includes $4.2 billion in chip production as part of an expansion of GlobalFoundries’ upstate New York facility, the White House said.

Advocates say the funding is needed to sharpen America’s technological edge and reinvigorate its lagging chip industry. The US produces only about 10% of the world’s supply of semiconductors, whereas East Asia accounts for 75% of global production — including most of the top-tier chips, according to the White House.

Semiconductors are critical pieces of an array of products including consumer electronics, automobiles, health care equipment and weapons systems. The Covid-19 pandemic sparked a chip shortage and strained supply chains, highlighting America’s dependence on foreign-made chips and revealing a potential national security threat, officials say.

The signing comes as Biden and congressional Democrats cap a flurry of activity before lawmakers leave Washington for the rest of the month and turn their attention to midterm election campaigns.

Senate Democrats on Sunday passed a sweeping bill to fund ambitious climate, energy and health policies by raising taxes on rich corporations and reforming prescription drug pricing. The bill, a major piece of Biden’s agenda that Democrats had worked on for well over a year, squeaked through with no Republican support in the chamber, which is evenly split by party. Vice President Kamala Harris cast the tie-breaking vote.

In late June, Biden also signed a bipartisan bill to strengthen gun regulations, including by enhancing requirements for background checks. The legislation sped through Congress in the wake of a deadly mass shooting at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas, in which a single gunman killed 19 students and two teachers.

And last week, Biden revealed that a US strike in Afghanistan killed top al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri, who was considered a mastermind behind the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

Biden is also expected to sign another bill this week that bolsters health benefits for veterans who were exposed to chemicals that billowed from toxic burn pits.

That bill passed with overwhelming bipartisan support after Republicans temporarily blocked it. The move stoked outrage from some veterans’ groups, as well as comedian Jon Stewart, who emerged as a leading advocate.

Biden’s already-middling approval ratings have sunk in recent months, as global inflation and supply chain issues take a toll on Americans’ wallets at the grocery store and the gas station. His unpopularity of him, paired with a tough political map and other political headwinds, has fueled concerns among Democrats that they could suffer a route in the November midterms that results in Republicans taking control of one or both chambers of Congress.

But the latest polls show Democrats’ chances of keeping the Senate have improved, and Biden on Monday predicted that the climate and tax bill’s passage will “immediately help” in the midterms.

.

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US

These 30 companies will help employees pay off their student loans

Federal student loan payments, most of which were paused during the pandemic, are set to resume in September.

And yet, 93% borrowers say they are not financially prepared to restart payments, according to a survey by the Student Debt Crisis Center and Savi. With no break in sight for rising prices, many Americans are simply stretched too thin, other studies show.

The Biden administration is currently deciding how to proceed with student loan forgiveness, and there are signs that the repayment pause may be extended yet again. But in the meantime, more employers are offering to help.

More from Personal Finance:
What we know about student loan forgiveness
Here are the ‘most employable’ college degrees
5 things borrowers can do while they wait for loan forgiveness

About 8% of employers offered student loan debt in 2021 but 33% were considering adding it, according to the most recent data from Willis Towers Watson, a compensation assistance consulting firm.

“There’s a lot of interest across the board,” said Lydia Jilek, Willis Towers Watson’s senior director for voluntary benefits. “A greater swath of the population has student loan debt than many people think.”

“It continues to be a benefit of significant interest and value for employees as well as employers,” she added.

Remote-friendly companies offering student loan help

Meanwhile, many Americans also want to continue working remotely instead of going back to the office, at least some of the time. A Prudential survey found that financial stability, job benefits and a better work/life balance are top priorities going forward.

To that end, FlexJobs identified 30 companies — now hiring — that offer student loan repayment assistance as well as the ability to work-from-home.

Many of the employers on the list will provide a monthly payment towards student loans, while others make yearly contributions. The payments range from $50 to several thousands, usually with a maximum lifetime benefit, and may depend on full-time or part-time status, according to FlexJobs.

  1. Abbott
  2. Aetna
  3. American Family Insurance
  4. Americas
  5. Atticus Law
  6. BAM Communications
  7. Chow Now
  8. Common Bond, Inc.
  9. cross media
  10. evercommerce
  11. Fidelity Investments
  12. Google
  13. GumGum
  14. HCA Healthcare
  15. Homesite Insurance
  16. live nation
  17. Main Street Bank
  18. Medix
  19. new york life
  20. NVIDIA
  21. Parallon
  22. Platoon
  23. pricewaterhousecoopers
  24. Pure Insurance
  25. Real Chemistry
  26. SoFi – Social Finance
  27. teachable
  28. The Hartford
  29. vituity
  30. weedmaps

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Market outlook ‘too volatile’ to chase stock, bond rallies, asset manager says

Investors should eschew chasing recent rallies in stocks and bonds given the current economic uncertainty, according to the chief investment officer of Swiss asset manager Prime Partners.

Francois Savary said it was enormously difficult to have clear economic visibility due to the particulars of the current investment cycle, such as the Covid-19 recovery and the Ukraine war.

“One of the key factors that supported the rally, which was a strong bond market during the month of July, has disappeared to a certain extent,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Monday.

Additionally, while the second-quarter earnings season has been robust so far, a key issue looming is how many analysts will review their third-quarter earnings forecasts. “So we consider that the two elements that can support a further rally in the equity market are not clearly there,” Savary said.

As such, he said investors should “absolutely not” be chasing the rally in equities that has been underway since mid-July. The S&P 500 is up almost 13% from its July lows, closing at 4,140 on Monday, but remains down since the start of the year.

On bonds, Savary said, “we all know it’s very difficult to make money on the bonds side. I would not chase the bond rally that we experienced over the last two months.”

Corporate, government and high-yield bond funds saw sizeable inflows last month. The US 10 Year Treasury yield — which moves inversely prices — has slipped to trade around 2.76% on Tuesday after topping 3.48% in mid-June.

Investors in global markets are navigating a whirlwind of inflationary pressures, recession risks and central bank tightening cycles, with even juggernauts such as Berkshire Hathaway and SoftBank posting investment losses in the June quarter.

Stock picks and investing trends from CNBC Pro:

“It’s a very difficult market environment,” Savary told CNBC. “You need to have some hedge funds [and] some kind of decorrelating strategy that are in your portfolio.”

Keeping some investment in stocks will provide partial protection from inflation, he said, however investors will need to be tactical and observe the latest economic figures.

Meanwhile cash, Savary said, is useful for providing flexibility.

“It’s interesting to have some cash to check because everything is possible in this kind of environment. We could have a recession, but you could also get a slow but satisfactory rate of growth in the coming 12 months,” he said.

For now, Savary said the market has priced in a recession. “But the numbers are not telling you that there is a recession, so we need to be nimble and to check what is happening week-by-week and month-by-month, and we should have more visibility by the early fall, in the US in particular.”

US gross domestic product fell for the first two quarters of the year, meeting a common definition of a recession, although the NBER defines it differently and the White House insists the US is not currently in recession.

Investors will be looking to US inflation data out Wednesday for further clues on the state of the world’s largest economy. It comes after the jobs report for last month showed unexpected strength and increased expectations of a 75 basis points rate hike in September.

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Taiwanese foreign minister says China drills game-plan for invasion

Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu.

Sam Yeh | AFP | Getty Images

Taiwan’s foreign minister said on Tuesday that China was using the military drills it launched in protest against US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit as a game-plan to prepare for an invasion of the
self-ruled island.

Joseph Wu, speaking at a press conference in Taipei, offered no timetable for a possible invasion of Taiwan, which is claimed by China as its own.

He said Taiwan would not be intimidated even as the drills continued with China often breaching the unofficial median line down the Taiwan Strait.

“China has used the drills in its military play-book to prepare for the invasion of Taiwan,” Wu said.

“It is conducting large-scale military exercises and missile launches, as well as cyberattacks, disinformation, and economic coercion, in an attempt to weaken public morale in Taiwan.

“After the drills conclude, China may try to routinize its action in an attempt to wreck the long-term status quo across the Taiwan Strait,” Wu said.

Such moves threatened regional security and provided “a clear image of China’s geostrategic ambitions beyond Taiwan”, Wu said, urging greater international support to stop China effectively controlling the strait.

A Pentagon official said on Monday that Washington was sticking to its assessment that China would not try to invade Taiwan for the next two years.

Wu spoke as military tensions simmer after the scheduled end on Sunday of four days of the largest-ever Chinese exercises surrounding the island – drills that included ballistic missile launches and simulated sea and air attacks in the skies and seas surrounding Taiwan.

China’s Eastern Theater Command announced on Monday that it would conduct fresh joint drills focusing on anti-submarine and sea assault operations – confirming the fears of some security analysts and diplomats that Beijing would keep up the pressure on Taiwan’s defences.

On Tuesday, the command said it continued to hold military drills and exercises in the seas and airspace around Taiwan, with a focus on blockades and resupply logistics.

A person familiar with security planning in the areas around Taiwan described to Reuters on Tuesday a continuing “standoff” around the median line involving about 10 warships each from China and Taiwan.

“China continued to try to press in to the median line,” the person said.

“Taiwan forces there have been trying to keep the international waterways open.”

Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said on Tuesday that China’s continued military exercises “highlight that its threat of force has not decreased.”

As Pelosi left the region last Friday, China also ditched some lines of communication with the United States, including theater level military talks and discussions on climate change.

Taiwan started its own long-scheduled drills on Tuesday, firing howitzer artillery out to sea in the southern county of Pingtung, attracting a small crowd of curious onlookers to a nearby beach.

US President Joe Biden, in his first public comments on the issue since Pelosi’s visit, said on Monday he was concerned about China’s actions in the region but he was not worried about Taiwan.

“I’m concerned they are moving as much as they are,” Biden told reporters in Delaware, referring to China. “But I don’t think they’re going to do anything more than they are.”

Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl also said the US military would continue to carry out voyages through the Taiwan Strait in the coming weeks.

China has never ruled out taking Taiwan by force and on Monday Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said that China was conducting normal military exercises “in our waters” in an open, transparent and professional way, adding Taiwan was part of China.

Taiwan rejects China’s sovereignty claims, saying only the Taiwanese people can decide the island’s future.

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US

Biden says he’s ‘not worried’ about China’s increased aggression toward Taiwan following Pelosi visit

US President Joe Biden talks to reporters while boarding Air Force One on travel to Eastern Kentucky to visit families affected by devastation from recent flooding, as he departs from Delaware Air National Guard Base in New Castle, Delaware, US, August 8, 2022.

Kevin Lamarques | Reuters

WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden said Monday he is “not worried” about China’s military exercises around Taiwan, adding that while he is “concerned that they’re moving as much as they are,” he does not think they’re going to continue to increase the pressure.

The remarks came one day after Beijing concluded 72 hours of intense maneuvers and missile tests over and around Taiwan. The exercises involved dozens of Chinese fighter jets and warships to mimic a military blockade of the self-governing island that Beijing considers a province.

Biden’s relative calm reflected the deliberate American strategy of not responding to Chinese bellicosity with equally hot saber-rattling.

It also reflects a broader opinion within the Biden administration that Beijing does not intend to make good on its implicit threat to invade Taiwan, at least not in the near term.

Given this assessment, the United States has adopted an approach, for now, of heightened vigilance, but steadfastly refused to be drawn into a military game of chicken in the Pacific.

Last Thursday, the White House announced that Biden would keep a US naval aircraft carrier strike group in the South China Sea longer than originally planned, in response to Beijing’s increased aggression toward Taiwan.

At the same time, a Biden spokesman said the United States would postpone a previously scheduled intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM, test.

The decisions signaled Washington’s desire to maintain American military alertness in the region, while also denying Beijing the opportunity to point to the long-planned US missile test as evidence that America was responding to China’s own missile launches near Taiwan with military preparations of its own.

Beijing claimed its military exercises were conducted in retaliation for US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last week.

The visit by the California Democrat, which the Biden White House publicly defended but privately opposed, marked the first time in 25 years that an American House speaker, a position second in line to the presidency, had visited Taiwan.

Asked Monday whether it was wise for Pelosi to have traveled to Taiwan given the tense US-China relationship, Biden gave the standard response his administration has used for weeks.

“That was her decision,” he said, before boarding Air Force One en route to Kentucky, where Biden and first lady Jill Biden will visit communities impacted by catastrophic flooding last week.

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Business

Potential curb on Australian LNG exports is another blow to Asia-Pacific gas markets

The Asia-Pacific gas market has suffered another blow after major natural gas producer Australia signaled it could potentially cut down liquified natural gas exports as the region battles tight gas supplies, high prices and competition from gas-short European buyers.

Australia is looking to trim its overseas sales in favor of domestic consumption ahead of a projected shortfall in local supplies next year

As energy protectionism takes hold globally, last week, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission called on Canberra to protect domestic gas supplies and curb LNG — cooled natural gas — exports after projecting the east coast of the country could face a shortfall of 56 petajoules of gas next year.

For months, the Asia-Pacific region has faced competition for fuel from European buyers looking to replace restricted Russian gas.

These European countries, in scrambling for LNG to mitigate a shortage of pipeline gas ahead of the northern winter, have outbidden some less developed Asian countries.

“To protect energy security on the east coast we are recommending the Resources Minister initiate the first step of the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism (ADGSM),” ACCC Chair Gina Cass-Gottlieb said last week.

“We are also strongly encouraging LNG exporters to immediately increase their supply into the [local] market.”

A liquefied natural gas tanker berth in Japan, on Dec. 17, 2021. Should Japan ever exit the Sakhalin energy projects in Russia and their stakes were acquired by Russia or a third country, this would weaken the effectiveness of Western sanctions and benefit Russia, Japan’s industry minister said on Friday.

Kiyoshi Ota | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Most of the gas used on Australia’s east coast is produced by companies that are also LNG exporters to Asia-Pacific and other countries. The ADGSM stops these producers from exporting LNG if there is a shortfall domestically.

While most LNG sales to overseas buyers are made through long-term contracts, Australian LNG producers also sell ad-hoc and non-contracted LNG on the spot market. Countries without the ability to strike competitive long-term contracts are forced to buy them on the spot market.

It is this LNG supply that the ACCC says producers should avoid selling to the overseas market — currently flushed with gas-starved buyers — and save it for local consumers.

Gas lobby group the Australian Petroleum Production & Exploration Association however has assuaged markets, saying despite the ACCC warning, there is more than enough gas next year and that there has never been an actual shortfall previously.

“It’s certainly been the case throughout the existence of the export industry, that there has been a surplus of gas into the domestic market. So we have been able to achieve both. We don’t go for the idea that it is one or the other,” acting chief executive Damian Dwyer told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Tuesday.

“There’s been significant investment into the export industry. And that investment has brought on significant domestic supply. One complements the other.”

But if the mechanism is successfully invoked, new supply and price pressures will be felt by the region’s biggest LNG buyers such as Japan and South Korea as well as newcomers to LNG imports such as the Philippines, analysts say.

LNG prices have soared nearly 80% since before the Ukraine war started in late February, according to the Platts JKM pricing index.

“Since April, there had been no [spot] tend sales from the three major LNG export facilities on Australia’s east coast, indicating that some exports were slowing down,” S&P Global Market Intelligence APAC LNG pricing regional manager Kenneth Foo said.

The Philippines is entering the global LNG market at a time of extreme uncertainty. Global LNG supply is constrained due partly to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and LNG prices continue to hit record highs.

Sam Reynolds

Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis

“The lack of spot availability from East Coast Australia could in turn further tighten LNG supply within the Asia-Pacific region, especially heading into peak winter demand season in the fourth quarter,” Foo said.

Developing Asian countries like Bangladesh and Pakistan have had to bow out of buying LNG on the spot market, Sam Reynolds, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, said.

“Inability to procure LNG volumes in these countries has caused fuel shortages and blackouts, pushing countries to the brink of economic collapse,” he said.

The Philippines, a debutant to the LNG import market, will face tough conditions when it tries to import its first ever shipment of LNG, he adds.

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“Inability to buy LNG at competitive rates could leave new terminals and LNG-fired power plants unused and stranded,” he said.

Such setbacks may derail the Philippines’ efforts to boost its LNG sector, already suffering from years of setbacks, Reynolds says.

While countries without long-term contracts like the Philippines may suffer, generally the region’s LNG supply is secure.

Proposed cuts are small

The proposed Australian cuts amount to roughly 14 LNG charges. This is a drop in the ocean of contracted charges shipped each month. In July, Australia exported 100 cargoes among over 300 cargoes shipped into Asia, Reynolds says.

“Cuts would only limit exports of LNG that is not sold under long-term contracts. This means that cuts would have minimal effects on buyers like Japan, Korea, and China, which buy 70% to 80% of their LNG via long-term contracts,” Reynolds said.

LNG markets have bigger problems than Australian curbs. Europe’s jostling for Asia-Pacific’s LNG supply remains the biggest threat, Reynolds says.

Consequently, the rise in energy prices globally have contributed to the surging inflation that many central banks are racing to rein in.

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