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US

Senate begins ‘vote-a-rama’ to advance Democrats’ sweeping health and climate bill

The package is the product of painstaking negotiations and will give Democrats a chance to achieve major policy objectives ahead of the upcoming midterm elections. Senate Democrats are using a special process to pass the package without Republican votes.

Once the legislation has passed in the Senate, it would next need to be approved by the House of Representatives before President Joe Biden could sign it into law.

what happens next

Following the procedural vote to proceed to the bill, the Senate entered debate before moving into the “vote-a-rama.” The marathon series of amendment votes with no time limit must run its course before a final vote can take place.

Republicans can use the “vote-a-rama” to put Democrats on the spot and force politically tough votes, and votes on contentious policy issues are expected.

Senators widely expect Republicans to try to kill insulin provisions included in Democrats’ climate and health care bill on the Senate floor during the “vote-a-rama”, which will also force the parliament Senatearian in real time to rule on whether it’s in order to stay in the bill.

Those provisions would limit insulin prices to $35 in the private insurance market as well as through Medicare. According to a Democratic aid, the parliamentarian ruled that the cap on insulin in the private insurance market was not compliant with reconciliation. Democrats weren’t surprised by her ruling on the private market cap but are hoping the Medicare insulin cap stays in, according to the aid.

But either way, the aid said, Democrats will keep both insulin provisions in the bill as they proceed forward — daring the GOP to move and try to strike them on the Senate floor.

The House is poised to come back to take up the legislation on Friday, August 12, according to House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer’s office.

How Democrats plan to pass the sweeping legislation

Senate Democrats only need a simple majority for the final passage of the bill since they are using a process known as reconciliation, which allows them to avoid a Republican filibuster and corresponding 60-vote threshold.

In order to pass a bill through the reconciliation process, however, the package must comply with a strict set of budget rules.

The Senate parliamentarian has to decide whether the provisions in the bill meet the rules to allow Democrats to use the filibuster-proof budget process to pass the legislation along straight party lines.

Schumer announced Saturday that after undergoing the parliamentarian’s review, the bill “remains largely intact.”

“The bill, when passed, will meet all of our goals — fighting climate change, lowering health care costs, closing tax loopholes abused by the wealthy and reducing the deficit,” the New York Democrat said.

In a key ruling, the parliamentarian, Elizabeth MacDonough, allowed a major component of the Democrats’ prescription drug pricing plans to move ahead — giving Medicare the power to negotiate the prices of certain prescription drugs for the first time.

But MacDonough narrowed another provision aimed at lowering drug prices — imposing penalties on drug companies if they increase their prices faster than inflation. Democrats had wanted the measure to apply both to Medicare and the private insurance market. But the parliamentarian ruled the inflation cap could only apply to Medicare, a Democratic aid said.

Meanwhile, MacDonough ruled to keep intact several climate measures from the Environment and Public Works Committee in the reconciliation bill, including a methane fee that would apply to oil and gas producers leaking the potent greenhouse gas methane above a certain threshold.

Earlier Saturday, Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden of Oregon announced that the clean energy tax portion of the bill “adheres to Senate rules, and important provisions to ensure our clean energy future is built in America have been approved by the parliamentarian.”

How the bill addresses the climate crisis

For a party that failed to pass major climate legislation over 10 years ago, the reconciliation bill represents a major, long-fought victory for Democrats.

The nearly $370 billion clean energy and climate package is the largest climate investment in US history, and the biggest victory for the environmental movement since the landmark Clean Air Act. It also comes at a critical time; This summer has seen punishing heat waves and deadly floods across the country, which scientists say are both linked to a warming planet.

Analysis from Schumer’s office — as well as multiple independent analyzes — suggests the measures would reduce US carbon emissions by up to 40% by 2030. Strong climate regulations from the Biden administration and action from states would be needed to get to Biden’s goal of cutting emissions 50% by 2030.

The bill also contains many tax incentives meant to bring down the cost of electricity with more renewables, and spur more American consumers to switch to electricity to power their homes and vehicles.

Lawmakers said the bill represents a monumental victory and is also just the start of what’s needed to combat the climate crisis.

“This isn’t about the laws of politics, this is about the laws of physics,” Democratic Sen. Brian Schatz of Hawaii told CNN. “We all knew coming into this effort that we had to do what the science tells us what we need to do.”

Key health care and tax policy in the bill

The bill would empower Medicare to negotiate prices of certain costly medications administered in doctors’ offices or purchased at the pharmacy. The Health and Human Services secretary would negotiate the prices of 10 drugs in 2026, and another 15 drugs in 2027 and again in 2028. The number would rise to 20 drugs a year for 2029 and beyond.

This controversial provision is far more limited than the one House Democratic leaders have backed in the past. But it would open the door to fulfilling a longstanding party goal of allowing Medicare to use its heft to lower drug costs.

Democrats are also planning to extend the enhanced federal premium subsidies for Obamacare coverage through 2025, a year later than lawmakers recently discussed. That way they wouldn’t expire just after the 2024 presidential election.

To increase revenue, the bill would impose a 15% minimum tax on the income large corporations report to shareholders, known as book income, as opposed to the Internal Revenue Service. The measure, which would raise $258 billion over a decade, would apply to companies with profits over $1 billion.

Concerned about how this provision would affect certain businesses, particularly manufacturers, Sinema has suggested that she won changes to the Democrats’ plan to stop back how companies can deduct depreciated assets from their taxes. The details remain unclear.

However, Sinema nixed her party’s effort to tighten the carried interest loophole, which allows investment managers to treat much of their compensation as capital gains and pay a 20% long-term capital gains tax rate instead of income tax rates of up to 37%.

The provision would have lengthened the amount of time investment managers’ profit interest must be held from three years to five years to take advantage of the lower tax rate. Addressing this loophole, which would have raised $14 billion over a decade, had been a longtime goal of congressional Democrats.

In its place, a 1% excise tax on companies’ stock buybacks was added, raising another $74 billion, according to a Democratic aid.

This story has been updated with additional developments.

CNN’s Jessica Dean, Manu Raju, Ella Nilsen, Tami Luhby, Katie Lobosco and Melanie Zanona contributed to this report.

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Categories
Australia

‘The climate wars are nearly over’: Labor, teals and Greens take a win on emissions as Liberals watch on

Adam Bandt could have rightly felt bemused as he was walking through federal parliament.

Barely a day earlier, he’d announced the Greens’ bolstered political ranks would back Labor’s climate change bill, giving the new Prime Minister the votes he needed for landmark laws to reduce carbon emissions.

Bandt cut a lonely figure as he walked alone behind a press gaggle the size you so often only see for major party leaders.

In front of the microphones were six women, all but one new faces in a parliament more diverse than any that came before it.

If success has many fathers and failure is an orphan, then Labor’s climate change bill was a child with more parents than it could poke a stick at.

“The climate wars are nearly over,” Zali Steggall cautiously said.

Zali Steggal speaks at a press conference at parliament house
Zali Steggall is providing a mentor for the teal independents who have followed her into parliament. (ABC News: Nick Haggarty)

pure political maths

In many ways, Labor and the crossbench have plenty to celebrate after this week.

Labor, once the legislation passes the Senate, will have enshrined laws in a policy area fraught with toppling prime ministers.

Bandt too has done what former leaders of his party baulked at.

Arguably, he’s transforming the Greens from a movement to a political party by adopting a pragmatic approach that gets something, even if it’s not as much as his party might have wanted.

And the teals were successful in making minor amendments, ensuring they could go back to their communities by selling a win.

But suggestions that Australian politics has been radically changed since the election are certainly premature.

“Teals get a win and we get a win” is how one in Labor dubbed it.

What was at play was pure political maths.

Labor knows that if the teals succeed, it all but consigns the Coalition to the opposition benches.

The teal amendments didn’t require the government to add anything it didn’t want to.

It was the Greens who delivered Labor the votes it needed, or at least will when the Senate considers the laws later this year.

It’s why Bandt could be forgiven if he was frustrated that the teals were attracting the credit at their press conference for what was, in fact, a gift his party had given the government.

Yet to just view this in purely political win-loss metrics perhaps misunderstands both the election and broader political movement.

A row of women wearing masks walks towards the camera down a corridor.
The teal MPs have stuck closely together during the first sitting fortnight.(ABC News: Nick Haggarty)

Taking the ‘fight’ out

Zali Steggall led the teals to their press conference early on Thursday morning.

She’s not the first community-backed independent to arrive in Canberra but there’s no doubt she created the mold the teals have followed.

“Just a brief thank you to Zali Steggall, who worked tirelessly over the last three years for us to be in this position,” Sydneysider Sophie Scamps said at the press conference.

Steggall is proving not just a mentor among the teals but also a bridge between new and old members of the crossbench and with the government.

What unites these independents is they’re political newbies, leaders in their former lives, now setting their sights on doing politics differently.

Lisa Chesters holds her son, who is giggling with Anne Aly
Anne Aly happily entertained Lisa Chesters’ son Charlie during the climate change debate.(ABC News: Nick Haggarty )

You only had to hear Kylea Tink to get a sense that conventional political thinking is the last thing on her mind.

After a journalist quoted the Greens saying the “fight” was just beginning to force the government to be more ambitious, she argued that it was the wrong approach.

Tink said it should be the “planning” that starts now and that politicians across the political aisle needed to work together, rather than fight.

She also was quick to “reframe” a question being put to the crossbenchers.

“The comment you just made was that the government doesn’t need my vote as a crossbencher to get this legislation through,” Tink said.

“That may be the case but any government that seeks to lead the nation needs to take its people with it.

“What we’ve seen here is a government that recognizes that just because you don’t sit on a side on the government’s side doesn’t mean that your community’s voice doesn’t matter.

“If I wasn’t an independent, it wouldn’t have been heard.”

Adam Bandt holds out his arm while speaking in the House of Representatives
Adam Bandt’s Greens delivered the government the votes it needed to legislate an emissions reduction target.(ABC News: Matt Roberts)

‘The Liberals have disenfranchised people’

After the first sitting fortnight, some in the building have wondered if the teals are yet to regret entering politics.

At least a couple of moments from the week might have given them moments of doubt about their new career.

As bells rang for politicians to vote on the climate bills, Tink and Scamps were regularly spotted darting out of the chamber, returning minutes later before the bells stopped ringing.

Their distraction, it transpired, were pieces of toast being consumed outside the chamber. Finding time to eat in Canberra is no longer something you can do on a whim.

Victorian Monique Ryan, too, might have had pangs of doubt after one of her staff pulled down her mask during that press conference and pushed her fingers up the sides of her mouth, signaling for her boss to smile.

Being told to smile was arguably something she’d have never heard as she ran the neurology department of the Royal Children’s Hospital.

She didn’t need to be told to smile as she found her way to the microphone and took aim at the Liberals who refused to negotiate with the government over the emissions target.

“This is just the end of the beginning in our action on climate change,” Ryan said.

“To make progress, to be at the table you have to have a voice at the table and in taking themselves out of the discussion, the Liberals have disenfranchised the people in the electorates they represent.”

Tasmanian Liberal Bridget Archer likely agrees.

She again proved she’s willing to do what so often men in her party appear unable to follow through on — saying they’ll cross the floor on an issue and actually doing it.

Bridget Archer speaks with Zoe Daniel while voting for Labor's climate bill
Bridget Archer was the only Coalition MP to vote for the government’s climate bill.(ABC News: Nick Haggarty )

But it’s far from perfect

The teals arrived in Canberra after their communities turfed out the Liberals who had long dominated the electorates they now hold.

They’ve been pleasantly surprised at the spirit of collaboration that they’ve found in Labor — at least for now.

But no-one is saying parliament is anywhere near perfect.

“We’re still seeing in Question Time old-style politics play out,” Steggall says.

“I don’t think it impresses many of us and it certainly doesn’t impress the Australian public.”

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Categories
US

Trump wins CPAC straw poll

“He’s more popular than ever,” said Jim McLaughlin, a pollster for Trump who conducted the straw poll.

McLaughlin announced the results from the CPAC Texas main stage about two hours before Trump’s scheduled appearance. Among the attendees who voted, 69% said they preferred Trump, with 24% saying they would prefer Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis.

When asked about who they would prefer if Trump did not run for president, 65% of respondents said they preferred DeSantis, while 8% said they would support Donald Trump Jr.

The straw poll is not a scientific survey, with a pool limited to CPAC attendees, and is not representative of the broader GOP electorate.

The results are reflective of straw polls at previous CPACs since Trump left office, which showed the former President with a large lead among the conservative activists and DeSantis as the favorite alternative.

In February, Trump won a straw poll at CPAC in Orlando, Florida, with 59% of the vote. DeSantis came in a second in that poll with 28% of the vote, and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo came in a distant third with 2% of the vote.

In a July 2021 CPAC straw poll, Trump topped the GOP field with support from 70% of conference attendees, compared to 21% who selected DeSantis last year.

In an interview with New York Magazine last month, Trump said he was still deciding when — not if — he should announce a 2024 campaign. DeSantis is also widely considered to be a contender for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination.

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Categories
US

Large Indiana employers Eli Lilly and Cummins speak out about the state’s new restrictive abortion law

An Eli Lilly and Company pharmaceutical manufacturing plant is pictured at 50 ImClone Drive in Branchburg, New Jersey, March 5, 2021.

Mike Segar | Reuters

Drugmaker Eli Lilly, one of the biggest employers in Indiana, said that the state’s newly passed law restricting abortions will cause the company to grow away from its home turf.

Lilly said in a statement on Saturday that it recognizes abortion as a “divisive and deeply personal issue with no clear consensus among the citizens of Indiana.”

“Despite this lack of agreement, Indiana has opted to quickly adopt one of the most restrictive anti-abortion laws in the United States,” Eli Lilly said. “We are concerned that this law will hinder Lilly’s — and Indiana’s — ability to attract diverse scientific, engineering and business talent from around the world. Given this new law, we will be forced to plan for more employment growth outside our home state.”

Indiana’s Legislature on Friday became the first in the nation to pass new legislation restricting access to abortions since the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. The state was among the earliest Republican-run state legislatures to debate tighter abortion laws after the Supreme Court ruling in June that removed constitutional protections for the procedure.

Lilly employs about 10,000 people in Indiana, where it has been headquartered in Indianapolis for more than 145 years.

Cummins, an engine manufacturing company that also employs about 10,000 people in Indiana, spoke out over the weekend against the new law as well.

“The right to make decisions regarding reproductive health ensures that women have the same opportunity as others to participate fully in our workforce and that our workforce is diverse,” a company spokesman said in a statement.

“There are provisions in the law that conflict with this, impact our people, impede our ability to attract and retain top talent and influence our decisions as we continue to grow our footprint with a focus on selecting welcoming and inclusive environments,” the Cummins spokesman said.

The two businesses join a growing list of companies, including tech giant Apple and denim retailer Levi Strauss, which are offering their employees resources for reproductive care in states where restrictions have been put into place.

Eli Lilly noted Saturday that although the pharmaceutical company has expanded its employee health plan coverage to include travel for reproductive services, “that may not be enough for some current and potential employees.”

Indiana’s abortion ban is expected to go into effect on Sept. 15. It comes with some exceptions, including for cases of rape or incest, and for protecting the mother’s life.

President Joe Biden’s administration has also condemned Indiana’s decision. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre called it a “devastating step.”

“And, it’s another radical step by Republican legislators to take away women’s reproductive rights and freedom, and put personal health-care decisions in the hands of politicians rather than women and their doctors,” she said in a statement.

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Categories
US

President Joe Biden tests negative for Covid-19 following rebound case

“The President continues to feel very well,” Dr. Kevin O’Connor wrote. “Given his rebound positivity which we reported last Saturday, we have continued daily monitoring. This morning, his SARS-CoV-2 antigen testing was negative. In an abundance of caution, the President will continue his strict isolation measures pending a second negative test as previously described.”

During isolation, the President has participated virtually in public events from the White House residence. On two occasions, he delivered socially distanced remarks to a restricted pool from the Blue Room balcony, announcing a successful strike that killed al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri Monday and signing two bills cracking down on Covid-19 relief fraud Friday.
The President and first lady Jill Biden are scheduled to travel on Monday to visit Kentucky after deadly floods in the eastern part of the state killed dozens of people and devastated the area.

According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “People with recurrence of COVID-19 symptoms or a new positive viral test after having tested negative should restart isolation and isolate again for at least 5 days.”

During Biden’s first bout with the disease, he experienced mild symptoms, including runny nose, fatigue, high temperature and a cough, according to his doctor. The five-day course of Paxlovid the President completed requires a doctor’s prescription and is available via emergency use authorization from the US Food and Drug Administration for treatment of mild-to-moderate Covid-19 in people 12 and older who are at high risk of serious illness.

The CDC issued a health alert to doctors on May 24 advising that Covid-19 symptoms sometimes come back, and that may just be how the infection plays out in some people, regardless of whether they’re vaccinated or treated with medications such as Paxlovid. The CDC said that most rebound cases involve mild disease and that there have been no reports of serious illness.

Biden is fully vaccinated and received two booster shots. He received his first two doses of the Pfizer / BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine ahead of his inauguration in January 2021, his first booster shot in September and his second booster vaccination in March.

This story has been updated.

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Categories
US

Senate parliamentarian OKs most of Dems’ drug price controls

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Senate parliamentarian narrowed Democrats’ plan for curbing drug prices but left it largely intact Saturday, Democrats said, as party leaders prepared to start moving their sprawling economic bill through the chamber.

Elizabeth MacDonough, the chamber’s rules arbiter, also gave the green light to clean air provisions in the measure, including one limiting electric vehicle tax credits to those assembled in the US, Democrats said.

The nonpartisan official’s rulings came as Democrats planned to begin Senate votes Saturday on their wide-ranging package addressing climate change, energy, health care costs, taxes and even deficit reduction. Party leaders have said they believe they now have the unity they will need to move the legislation through the 50-50 Senate, with Vice President Kamala Harris’ tiebreaking vote.

MacDonough said provisions must be removed that would force drugmakers to pay rebates if their prices rise above inflation for products they sell to private insurers. Pharmaceutical companies would have to pay those penalties, though, if their prices for drugs bought by Medicare rise too high.

Dropping penalties on drugmakers for increasing prices on private insurers was a clear setback for Democrats. The decision reduces incentives on pharmaceutical companies to restrain what they charge, increasing costs for patients.

Erasing that language will cut the $288 billion in 10-year savings that the Democrats’ overall drug curbs were estimated to generate — a reduction of perhaps tens of billions of dollars, analysts have said. But other restrictions on rising pharmaceutical costs survived, including letting Medicare negotiate costs for the drugs it buys, capping seniors’ out-of-pocket expenses and providing free vaccines.

The surviving pharmaceutical provisions left Democrats promoting the drug language as a boon to consumers at a time when voters are infuriated by the worst inflation in four decades.

“This is a major victory for the American people,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, DN.Y., said in a statement. “While there was one unfortunate ruling in that the inflation rebate is more limited in scope, the overall program remains intact and we are one step closer to finally taking on Big Pharma and lowering Rx drug prices for millions of Americans.”

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden, D-Ore., said that while he was “disappointed” the penalties for higher drug prices for privately insured consumers were dropped, “the legislation nevertheless puts a substantial check on Big Pharma’s ability to price gouge.”

The parliamentarian’s decision came after a 10-day period that saw Democrats resurrect top components of President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda after they were seemingly dead. In rapid-fire deals with Democrats’ two most unpredictable senators—first conservative Joe Manchin of West Virginiathen Arizona centrist Kyrsten Sinema — Schumer pieced together a broad package that, while a fraction of earlier, larger versions that Manchin derailed, would give the party an achievement against the backdrop of this fall’s congressional elections.

The parliamentarian signed off on a fee on excess emissions of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas contributor, from oil and gas drilling. She also let stand environmental grants to minority communities and other initiatives for reducing carbon emissionssaid Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Chairman Thomas Carper, D-Del.

She approved a provision requiring union-scale wages to be paid if energy efficiency projects are to qualify for tax credits, and another that would limit electric vehicle tax credits to those cars and trucks assembled in the United States.

The overall measure faces unanimous Republican opposition. But assuming Democrats fight off a nonstop “vote-a-rama” of amendments — many designed by Republicans to derail the measure — they should be able to muscle the measure through the Senate.

House passage could come when that chamber returns briefly from recess on Friday.

“What will vote-a-rama be like. It will be like hell,” Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, the top Republican on the Senate Budget Committee, said Friday of the approaching GOP amendments. He said that in supporting the Democratic bill, Manchin and Sinema “are empowering legislation that will make the average person’s life more difficult” by forcing up energy costs with tax increases and making it harder for companies to hire workers.

The bill offers spending and tax incentives for moving toward cleaner fuels and supporting coal with assistance for reducing carbon emissions. Expiring subsidies that help millions of people afford private insurance premiums would be extended for three years, and there is $4 billion to help Western states combat drought.

There would be a new 15% minimum tax on some corporations that earn over $1 billion annually but pay far less than the current 21% corporate tax. There would also be a 1% tax on companies that buy back their own stock, swapped in after Sinema refused to support higher taxes on private equity firm executives and hedge fund managers. The IRS budget would be pumped up to strengthen its tax collections.

While the bill’s final costs are still being determined, it overall would spend more than $300 billion over 10 years to slow climate change, which analysts say would be the country’s largest investment in that effort, and billions more on health care. It would raise more than $700 billion in taxes and from government drug cost savings, leaving about $300 billion for deficit reduction — a modest bite out of projected 10-year shortfalls of many trillions of dollars.

Democrats are using special procedures that would let them pass the measure without having to reach the 60-vote majority that legislation often needs in the Senate.

It is the parliamentarian’s job to decide whether parts of legislation must be dropped for violating those rules, which include a requirement that provisions be chiefly aimed at affecting the federal budget, not imposing new policy.

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Associated Press writer Matthew Daly contributed to this report.

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Categories
US

Senate on track to take key vote Saturday to advance Democrats’ sweeping health care and climate bill

The package is the product of painstaking negotiations and will give Democrats a chance to achieve major policy objectives ahead of the upcoming midterm elections. Senate Democrats are using a special process to pass the package without Republican votes.

Once the legislation has passed in the Senate, it would next need to be approved by the House of Representatives before President Joe Biden could sign it into law.

The Senate is expected to take the first procedural vote to proceed to the bill sometime on Saturday. A simple majority is required for the motion to proceed.

Democrats control the narrowest possible majority and only 50 seats in the Senate, but are expected to be united to advance the bill in the initial procedural vote.

Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema on Thursday night offered critical support after party leaders agreed to change new tax proposals, indicating she would “move forward” on the sweeping economic package.
West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin has also played a key role in shaping the legislation — which is only moving forward after Manchin and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced a deal at the end of July, a major breakthrough for Democrats after earlier negotiations had stalled out.
Senate Democrats only need a simple majority for the final passage of the bill since they are using a process known as reconciliation, which allows them to avoid a Republican filibuster and corresponding 60-vote threshold.
In order to pass a bill through the reconciliation process, however, the package must comply with a strict set of budget rules. The Senate parliamentarian must decide whether the provisions in the bill meet the rules to allow Democrats to use the filibuster-proof budget process to pass the legislation along straight party lines.

In a key ruling, the parliamentarian, Elizabeth MacDonough, has allowed a major component of the Democrats’ prescription drug pricing plans to move ahead — giving Medicare the power to negotiate the prices of certain prescription drugs for the first time.

But MacDonough narrowed another provision aimed at lowering drug prices — imposing penalties on drug companies if they increase their prices faster than inflation. Democrats had wanted the measure to apply both to Medicare and the private insurance market. But the parliamentarian ruled the inflation cap could only apply to Medicare, a Democratic aid said.

Still, Democrats hailed the ruling, with Schumer saying that “the overall program remains intact.”

Democrats are waiting on new cost estimates from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office to see how the ruling affects their deficit projections. It’s likely that the curtailed drug provision would somewhat limit the package’s deficit reduction.

Meanwhile, MacDonough ruled to keep intact several climate measures from the Environmental and Public Works Committee in the reconciliation bill, including a methane fee that would apply to oil and gas producers leaking the potent greenhouse gas methane above a certain threshold.

Earlier Saturday, Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden of Oregon announced that the clean energy tax portion of the bill “adheres to Senate rules, and important provisions to ensure our clean energy future is built in America have been approved by the parliamentarian.”

Schumer has yet to decide the exact time he plans to kick off debate this weekend, according to a senior Democratic aide. The timing of that vote is key because it will kick off the process and will determine when the bill will ultimately get its final vote. If Schumer waits to hold that first vote to open debate, he could push back the rest of the votes on the bill until later Saturday or even all day Sunday.

The reason why Democratic leaders haven’t decided yet is that they were waiting for the parliamentarian’s rulings. While they don’t need her to rule before the first procedural vote, the goal of Democrats is to make any changes she requests before the process begins, the aid said. As a result, the timing of votes on amendments and final passage of the bill is very much in flux.

What happens after the bill faces its first key vote

If the first procedural vote to proceed to the bill gets the backing of all 50 members of the Democratic caucus, which it is expected to, there would then be up to 20 hours of debate evenly divided between the two parties, though some of that time could be yielded back to speed up the process.

Following time for debate, there would be a process colloquially referred to on Capitol Hill as a “vote-a-rama” — a marathon series of amendment votes with no time limit that must run its course before a final vote can take place.

Republicans will be able to use the vote-a-rama to put Democrats on the spot and force politically tough votes. The process typically stretches overnight and into the early hours of the next morning. It’s not yet clear exactly when the vote-a-rama will begin, but it could start as early as Saturday evening. If that happens, a final vote could potentially take place as soon as the early hours of Sunday morning.

The House is poised to come back to take up the legislation on Friday, August 12, according to House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer’s office.

How the bill addresses the climate crisis

For a party that failed to pass major climate legislation over 10 years ago, the reconciliation bill represents a major, long-fought victory for Democrats.

The nearly $370 billion clean energy and climate package is the largest climate investment in US history, and the biggest victory for the environmental movement since the landmark Clean Air Act. It also comes at a critical time; This summer has seen punishing heat waves and deadly floods across the country, which scientists say are both linked to a warming planet.

Analysis from Schumer’s office — as well as multiple independent analyzes — suggests the measures would reduce US carbon emissions by up to 40% by 2030. Strong climate regulations from the Biden administration and action from states would be needed to get to Biden’s goal of cutting emissions 50% by 2030.

The bill also contains many tax incentives meant to bring down the cost of electricity with more renewables, and spur more American consumers to switch to electricity to power their homes and vehicles.

Lawmakers said the bill represents a monumental victory and is also just the start of what’s needed to combat the climate crisis.

“This isn’t about the laws of politics, this is about the laws of physics,” Democratic Sen. Brian Schatz of Hawaii told CNN. “We all knew coming into this effort that we had to do what the science tells us what we need to do.”

Key health care and tax policy in the bill

The bill would empower Medicare to negotiate prices of certain costly medications administered in doctors’ offices or purchased at the pharmacy. The Health and Human Services secretary would negotiate the prices of 10 drugs in 2026, and another 15 drugs in 2027 and again in 2028. The number would rise to 20 drugs a year for 2029 and beyond.

This controversial provision is far more limited than the one House Democratic leaders have backed in the past. But it would open the door to fulfilling a longstanding party goal of allowing Medicare to use its heft to lower drug costs.

Democrats are also planning to extend the enhanced federal premium subsidies for Obamacare coverage through 2025, a year later than lawmakers recently discussed. That way they wouldn’t expire just after the 2024 presidential election.

To increase revenue, the bill would impose a 15% minimum tax on the income large corporations report to shareholders, known as book income, as opposed to the Internal Revenue Service. The measure, which would raise $258 billion over a decade, would apply to companies with profits over $1 billion.

Concerned about how this provision would affect certain businesses, particularly manufacturers, Sinema has suggested that she won changes to the Democrats’ plan to stop back how companies can deduct depreciated assets from their taxes. The details remain unclear.

However, Sinema nixed her party’s effort to tighten the carried interest loophole, which allows investment managers to treat much of their compensation as capital gains and pay a 20% long-term capital gains tax rate instead of income tax rates of up to 37%.

The provision would have lengthened the amount of time investment managers’ profit interest must be held from three years to five years to take advantage of the lower tax rate. Addressing this loophole, which would have raised $14 billion over a decade, had been a longtime goal of congressional Democrats.

In its place, a 1% excise tax on companies’ stock buybacks was added, raising another $74 billion, according to a Democratic aid.

This story has been updated with additional developments.

CNN’s Manu Raju, Ella Nilsen, Tami Luhby, Katie Lobosco and Melanie Zanona contributed to this report.

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Categories
US

Sinema gives her nod, and influence, to Democrats’ big bill

WASHINGTON (AP) — Sen. Joe Manchin sealed the deal reviving President Joe Biden’s big economic, health care and climate bill. But it was another Democratic senator, Kyrsten Sinema of Arizonawho intently, quietly and deliberately shaped the final product.

Democrats pushed ahead Friday on an estimated $730 billion package that in many ways reflects Sinema’s priorities and handiwork more than the other political figures who have played a key role in delivering on Biden’s signature domestic policy agenda.

It was Sinema early on who rejected Biden’s plan to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, as she broke with the party’s primary goal of reversing the Trump-era tax break Republicans gave to corporate America.

Sinema also scaled back her party’s long-running plan to allow Medicare to negotiate lower drug prices with the pharmaceutical companies as a way to reduce overall costs to the government and consumers. She limited which drugs can be negotiated.

Her insistence on climate change provisions forced the coal-state Manchin to stay at the table to accept some $369 billion in renewable energy investments and tax breaks. She also is tucking in more money to fight Western droughts.

And it was Sinema who in one final stroke gave her blessing to the deal by extracting an ultimate demand — she forced Democrats to drop plans to close a tax loophole that benefits wealthy hedge fund managers and high-income earners, long a party priority. Instead, the final bill will keep the tax rate at 20% instead of hiking it to the typical 37%.

“Kyrsten Sinema’s proven herself to be a very effective legislator,” said Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., who has negotiated extensively with his colleague over the past year, including on the tax loophole.

In a 50-50 Senate where every vote matters, the often inscrutable and politically undefinable Sinema puts hers to use in powerful ways. Her negotiating at the highest levels of power — she appears to have equal access to Biden, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and even Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell — has infuriated some, wowed others and left no doubt she is a powerful new political figure.

While other lawmakers bristle at the influence a single senator can wield in Congress, where each member represents thousands if not millions of voters, Sinema’s nod of approval late Thursday was the last hurdle Democrats needed to push the Inflation Reduction Act forward. A final round of grueling votes on the package is expected to begin this weekend.

“We had no choice,” Schumer told reporters Friday at the Capitol.

Getting what you want in Congress does not come without political costs, and Sinema is amassing a balance due.

Progressives are outraged at their behavior, which they view as beyond the norms of sausage-making during the legislative process and verging on an unsettling restacking of party priorities to a more centrist, if not conservative, lane.

Progressive Rep. Ruben Gallego is openly musing about challenging Sinema in the 2024 primary in Arizona, and an independent expenditure group, Change for Arizona 2024, says it will support grassroots organizations committed to defeating her in a Democratic primary.

“The new reconciliation bill will lower the cost of prescription drugs,” Gallego wrote on Twitter last weekend. “@SenatorSinema is holding it up to try to protect ultra rich hedge fund managers so they can pay a lower tax.”

In fact, on the left and the right, commentators lambasted her final act—saving the tax breaks for the wealthy. Some pointed to past legislative luminaries—the late Sen. Robert Byrd, for example, used his clout to leave his name on roads, buildings and civic institutions across the West Virginia hillsides. They scoff at Sinema establishing her legacy of her in such a way.

“Astonishing,” wrote conservative Hugh Hewitt on Twitter. “@SenatorSinema could have demanded anything she wanted — anything that spent money or changed taxes — and with that leverage for Arizona she choose … to protect the carry interest exemption for investors. …Not the border. Not the country. A tax break. wow.”

Democratic former Clinton-era Labor Secretary Robert Reich wrote, “The ‘carried interest’ loophole for billionaire hedge-fund and private-equity partners is now out of the Inflation Reduction Act, courtesy of Kyrsten Sinema.

“She’s up in 2024. Primary her and get her out of the Senate.”

But Sinema has never cared much about what others say about her, from the time she set foot in the Senate, breaking the rules with her whimsical fashion choices and her willingness to reach across the aisle to Republicans — literally joining them at times in the private Senate GOP cloakroom.

The Arizona senator seeks to emulate the maverick career of John McCain, drawing on his farewell address for her maiden Senate speech, and trying to adopt his renegade style alongside her own — a comparison that draws some eyerolls for its reach and scope.

Still, in her short time in the Senate, Sinema has come herself to be a serious study who understands intricacies of legislation and a hard-driving dealer who does not flinch. She has been instrumental in landmark legislation, including the bipartisan infrastructure bill Biden signed into law last summer.

“There’s not been a bipartisan group that she’s not been a part of,” Warner said.

In the end, the final package is slimmer than Biden first envisioned with his lofty Build Back Better initiative, but still a monumental undertaking and a bookend to a surprisingly productive if messy legislative session.

The bill would make health care gains for many Americans, capping pharmacy costs for seniors at $2,000 out of pocket and providing subsidies to help millions of people who buy health insurance on the private market. It includes what the Biden administration calls the largest investment in climate change ever, with money for renewable energy and consumer rebates for new and used electric cars. It would mostly be paid for by higher corporate taxes, with some $300 billion going to deficit reductions.

On the climate provisions, a priority for Democrats, Sinema may have played a role in keeping the sweeping provisions in the bill, when Manchin was less inclined to do so.

Environmental leaders, who have been involved in talks on the bill since last year, said Sinema has helped shape the bill all along. She was especially helpful last year when she made it clear she supports the climate and energy provisions, and her commitment to climate issues has remained steadfast, environmentalists said.

She tacked on her own priority, money to help Western states dealing with droughts, in the final push.

Jamal Raad, executive director of Evergreen Action, an environmental group that has pushed for the climate bill, said: “Senator Sinema needed money for drought relief to help her constituents stave off the worst effects of climate change. If that’s what was needed to gain her support from her, then good on her.

At home in Arizona, business allies that have been crucial to Sinema’s efforts to build an independent image have cheered on her willingness to resist party pressure over the tax increases.

The Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the National Association of Manufacturers ran ads against the deal, though they didn’t target Sinema by name, and bent her ear in a phone call this week.

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Associated Press writers Matthew Daly in Washington and JJ Cooper in Phoenix contributed to this article.

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US

Despite al-Zawahiri strike, US officials are concerned about counterterrorism threats in Afghanistan

More than a year after the creation of that task force, sources say it hasn’t sent a single proposed target to the Pentagon for approval — largely because without a presence on the ground, it hasn’t been able to build enough intelligence on targets to meet the administration’s standards for avoiding civilian casualties.

The White House has hailed the CIA operation that killed al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul on Saturday as evidence that using over the horizon counterterrorism capabilities in Afghanistan has been effective. Current and former officials say the successful Zawahiri strike certainly proves that with the right intelligence, the US is perfectly capable of tackling a specific target from afar — but those same sources also said that Zawahiri, a single, high-value target long in the CIA’s crosshairs, was a special case that doesn’t alone prove the effectiveness of the strategy.

“There’s a difference between tracking one senior high value target and dealing with the resurgence of these terrorist groups inside Afghanistan,” said Beth Sanner, a former presidential intelligence briefer under President Donald Trump and senior South Asia analyst at the CIA. “It’s just a whole different ball of wax.”

Some intelligence officials have publicly raised concerns that terrorist activity incubated in Afghanistan will spread outside the country’s borders and pose a threat to the United States — and that the US will be blind to it.

Asked directly by Sen. Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, if he was worried about an attack on the homeland “emanating from places like Afghanistan,” FBI Director Chris Wray on Thursday said, “We are. Especially now that we’re out I’m worried about the potential loss of sources and collection over there.”

“I’m worried about the possibility that we will see al Qaeda reconstitute,” he added.

Hinting at how high the hurdles have become, some intelligence and military officials who were not involved in the closely-held planning details of the Zawahiri operation were pleasantly surprised that the US was still able to successfully carry out such a precision strike, according to a former intelligence official still in contact with former colleagues.

Administration officials say that on the contrary, the Zawahiri strike is proof that the US is successfully monitoring and countering the threat without American boots on the ground in Afghanistan. Sources familiar with the intelligence behind the strike say the US integrated lots of different nuggets of data from multiple streams of intelligence to locate and target Zawahiri.

“I think I’m more satisfied and more confident [in US intelligence in Afghanistan] than I was even a week ago because of what that collection just enabled, which was a pretty remarkable, pretty precise action,” a senior administration official told CNN on Friday.

Al Qaeda needs a new leader after Zawahiri's killing.  Its bench is thinner than it once was.

“The fact that there haven’t been other uses of force of that type in the past year means that we are monitoring and we are being judicious — and where we think it reaches the point of needing to act, we’re acting, “the official said. “But I think it is a pretty powerful demonstration of what that capability can provide.”

The US now largely relies on drone flights and human networks on the ground to gather information about what is going on inside Afghanistan, according to a former intelligence official and the source familiar with the intelligence.

But drone flights from the Gulf are logistically complicated and have limited loiter time in Afghanistan thanks to the long flight, making them expensive to use and limiting their usefulness. And without a US presence on the ground, intelligence professionals expect human networks may degrade over time.

“I think we don’t know what we don’t know,” one former official said.

Difficult questions

For now, there is broad consensus within the intelligence community that the immediate threat that al Qaeda will be able to use Afghanistan as a safe haven to plan attacks on the US homeland or US interests remains low. But difficult questions remain about whether that risk will grow over time.

Much depends on current unknowns — in particular, how the Taliban responds to the killing of Zawahiri. “Will the Taliban actually let AQ use Afghanistan?” said one source familiar with the intelligence.

“There are a ton of factors that play into this debate,” this person said. “And all complicated.”

The intelligence community in its annual threat assessment released this year rates the threat from al Qaeda affiliates in Yemen, Somalia and West Africa as a greater risk to US interests abroad than its weakened leadership in Afghanistan. Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, officials, is still gauging its ability to operate under Taliban rule and will likely remain focused on maintaining its safe haven rather than planning external operations — at least for now.

Biden's al Qaeda strike reveals an inconvenient truth about America's war on terror

And although al Qaeda leaders have enjoyed “increased freedom of action” under the Taliban, according to a recent UN report, there has been no major influx of new fighters to Afghanistan since the US withdrawal — a reflection of how al Qaeda has evolved away from centrally-planned attacks, according to some analysts.

But as for what happens next, one US source described the analysis across intelligence agencies as “all over the place.”

“What we don’t think we have occurring is some sort of regrowth [or] regeneration of an al Qaeda operational presence—even with less famous names [than Zawahiri],” the senior administration official said.

There is one school of thought that while some elements of the Taliban may feel honor-bound to uphold its oath to shield old guard members of al Qaeda like Zawahiri, it has no obligation or incentive to make welcome a new generation of fighters. And according to intelligence officials, there are vanishingly few members of the original al Qaeda leadership who remain in Afghanistan, none of whom are likely to replace Zawahiri.

Meanwhile, the recent strike, some analysts argue, may discourage terrorist leaders from traveling to the country from elsewhere. They argue that the far greater risk is al Qaeda affiliates in Africa and elsewhere that are only loosely connected to core leaders in Afghanistan.

“There’s some people who are very worried,” said Sanner, who is now a contributor at CNN. “I personally think that AQ core in Afghanistan doesn’t do a lot of operational planning.”

Others assess that it’s more likely that the Taliban — consumed with trying to legitimize its government amid a financial implosion and an ongoing conflict with ISIS-K — simply may not have the bandwidth to prevent Afghanistan from being used by al Qaeda or its affiliates to plan attacks on the United States. There are also concerns that the remnants of al Qaeda may simply be absorbed into the Taliban.

The UN report found a “close relationship” between al Qaeda and the Taliban.

How the Taliban responded

How the Taliban responds to the death of Zawahiri remains an open question — and one that intelligence and military officials are watching closely, multiple officials said.

According to one source familiar with the intelligence, it’s not clear to US intelligence how many people in the Taliban knew that Zawahiri was holed up in Kabul in a house owned by the powerful Haqqani faction — a militant group that is part of the Taliban government . The Taliban has publicly denied that they were aware of his presence prior to the strike and analysts are closely watching to see if his exposure of him ushers in any kind of rift between the Taliban and the Haqqani.

“The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has no information about Ayman al-Zawahiri’s arrival and stay in Kabul,” a statement by the Taliban said.

Images show Kabul house where al Qaeda chief was killed by US strike

White House officials said on Monday that senior Haqqani Taliban figures were aware of Zawahiri’s presence in the area and even took steps to conceal his presence after Saturday’s successful strike, restricting access to the safe house and rapidly relocating members of his family, including his daughter and her children.

“As far as we know, many people in the Taliban didn’t know the Haqqani were sheltering Zawahiri in Kabul. “Does that create a split between the Taliban and the Haqqani?” the source familiar with the intelligence said.

The senior administration official said Friday that the Taliban “is scrambling a bit to figure out who knew what and who didn’t — and moreover, to get their story straight on what happened.”

Some US military officials are hopeful, meanwhile, that the strike may help push the Taliban towards some sort of limited cooperation with the US to target ISIS-K, a common enemy and separate terrorist group in Afghanistan that the US military is far more concerned about. than al Qaeda, according to two sources familiar with the dynamic.

“I think this was a symbolic strike that removed an inspirational leader,” Sanner said. “It completes the task of removing the two people who were at the center of 9/11. But it is the end of an era — it is not about a current threat.”

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Greg Abbott appoints Justin Berry, indicted Austin officer, to TCOLE


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