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US

Democrats say they’ve reached agreement on economic package

WASHINGTON (AP) — Senate Democrats have agreed to eleventh-hour changes to their marquee economic legislation, they announced late Thursday, clearing the major impediment to pushing one of President Joe Biden’s paramount election-year priorities through the chamber in coming days.

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., a centrist seen as the pivotal vote in the 50-50 chamber, said in a statement that she had agreed to revamp some of the measure’s tax and energy provisions and was ready to “move forward” on the bill.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, DN.Y., said he believed his party’s energy, environment, health and tax compromise “will receive the support of the entire” Democratic membership of the chamber. His party needs unanimity and Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote to move the measure through the Senate over certain solid opposition from Republicans, who say the plan’s tax increases and spending would worsen inflation and damage the economy.

The announcement came as a surprise, with some expecting talks between Schumer and the mercurial Sinema to drag on for days longer without guarantee of success. Schumer has said he wants the Senate to begin voting on the legislation Saturday, after which it would begin its summer recess. Passage by the House, which Democrats control narrowly, could come when that chamber returns briefly to Washington next week.

Democrats revealed few details of their compromise, and other hurdles remained. Still, final congressional approval would complete an astounding resurrection of Biden’s wide-ranging domestic goalsthough in a more modest way.

Democratic infighting had embarrassed Biden and forced him to stop down a far larger and more ambitious $3.5 trillion, 10-year version, and then a $2 trillion alternative, leaving the effort all but dead. Instead, Schumer and Sen. Joe Manchin, the conservative maverick Democrat from West Virginia who derailed Biden’s earlier efforts, unexpectedly negotiated the slimmer package two weeks ago.

Its approval would let Democrats appeal to voters by boasting they are moving to reduce inflation — though analysts say that impact would be minor — address climate change and increase US energy security.

“Tonight, we’ve taken another critical step toward reducing inflation and the cost of living for America’s families,” Biden said in a statement.

Sinema said Democrats had agreed to remove a provision raising taxes on “carried interest,” or profits that go to executives of private equity firms. That’s been a proposal she has long opposed, though it is a favorite of Manchin and many progressives.

The carried interest provision was estimated to produce $13 billion for the government over the coming decade, a small portion of the measure’s $739 billion in total revenue.

It will be replaced by a new excise tax on stock buybacks which will bring in more revenue than that, said one Democrat familiar with the agreement. The official, who was not authorized to discuss the deal publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity, provided no other detail.

Sinema said she had also agreed to unspecified provisions to “protect advanced manufacturing and boost our clean energy economy.”

She noted that Senate parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough is still reviewing the measure to make sure no provisions must be removed for violating the chamber’s procedures. “Subject to the parliamentarian’s review, I’ll move forward,” Sinema said.

The measure must adhere to those rules for Democrats to use procedures that will prevent Republicans from mounting filibusters, delays that require 60 votes to halt.

Schumer said the measure retained the bill’s language on prescription drug pricing, climate change, “closing tax loopholes exploited by big corporations and the wealthy” and reducing federal deficits.

He said the bill “addressed a number of important issues” that Democratic senators raised during talks. He said the final measure “will reflect this work and put us one step closer to enacting this historic legislation into law.”

Left unclear was whether changes had been made to the bill’s 15% minimum corporate tax, a provision Sinema has been interested in revising. It would raise an estimated $313 billion, making it the legislation’s largest revenue raiser.

That levy, which would apply to around 150 corporations with income exceeding $1 billion, has been strongly opposed by business, including by groups from Sinema’s Arizona.

The final measure was expected to include assistance that Sinema and other Western senators have been trying to add to help their states cope with epic drought and wildfires that have become commonplace. Those lawmakers have been seeking around $5 billion but it was unclear what the final language would do, said a Democrat following the bargaining who would describe the effort only on condition of anonymity.

The measure will also have to withstand a “vote-a-rama,” a torrent of nonstop amendments expected to last well into the weekend, if not beyond. Republicans want to kill as much of the bill as possible, either with the parliamentarian’s rulings or amendments.

Even if their amendments lose — as is certain for most — Republicans will consider it mission accomplished if they force Democrats to take risky campaign-season votes on touchy issues like taxes, inflation and immigration.

Democratic amendments are expected as well. Progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., has said he wants to make his health care provisions stronger.

The overall bill would raise $739 billion in revenue. That would come from tax boosts on high earners and some huge corporations, beefed-up IRS tax collections and curbs on drug prices, which would save money for the government and patients.

It would spend much of that on initiatives helping clean energy, fossil fuels and health care, including helping some people buy private health insurance. That would still leave over $300 billion in the measure for deficit reduction.

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Categories
US

Why IRS’ $80B expansion is a ‘nightmare’ for small businesses

Small business owners may soon be in for a lengthy and expensive battle with the IRS, tax experts warn.

A key provision in the Inflation Reduction Act — which throws an extra $80 billion to the IRS to improve the agency’s collection of under-reported income — will end up targeting small business owners to pay for the legislation, according to nonpartisan watchdog the Joint Committee on Taxation.

The group estimates that between 78% and 90% of the estimated additional $200 billion the IRS will collect will come from small businesses making less than $200,000 annually.

Just 4% to 9% would come from businesses making north of $500,000 a year — meaning the legislation is in sharp contrast to President Biden’s longstanding claim that he wouldn’t raise taxes on anyone making less than $400,000.

“The IRS will have to target small and medium businesses because they won’t fight back,” Joe Hinchman, executive vice president at the National Taxpayers Union Foundation, told The Post. “We’ve seen this play out before … the IRS says ‘We’re going after the rich’ but when you’re trying to raise that much money, the rich can only get you so far.”

I.R.S.
Increasing the number of IRS agents could hurt small businesses most.
Getty Images

In fact, going after the lower and middle class can actually be more lucrative for IRS auditors than trying to get more money from the wealthy. “The rich have their lawyers and fight it — that’s why the poor are easier to go after,” Hinchman adds.

Accordingly, tax experts warn that the IRS’s audits will be far more painful and costly for small business owners — even for those who think they’re filing their taxes correctly.

manchin
Sens. Joe Manchin and Chuck Schumer have reached a deal that would give the IRS an extra $80 billion.
Getty Images

“Most small businesses aren’t doing anything wrong,” Daniel Bunn, executive vice president at the Tax Foundation, told The Post. “We don’t make the tax code simple and the complicated tax code makes it difficult for small business owners to comply with all the requirements.”

Even if small business owners get everything right, they may still be faced with a headache since part of the IRS expansion will involve sending out more notices and letters to businesses, Bunn adds. For individual contractors or small businesses, an IRS letter that they owe more money or made an error on their taxes can put them underwater.

“Anytime you get an IRS letter, it could take months or years to get it settled — we’re talking many thousands of dollars to address,” Bunn added. “Large companies have constant reviews and lawyers going through everything… small business doesn’t have the resources to fight back in the way.”

The White House has dismissed claims the bill will hurt lower- and middle-income Americans, instead noting the JCT estimate doesn’t take into account how much the bill will offset costs for average Americans like prescription drugs.

But tax experts aren’t so sanguine about the reality of giving the IRS more resources.

“The approach here is to double the IRS workforce, take the leash off, and see how much they can collect,” Hinchman adds. “I think they’ll collect it but it will be quite painful.”

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Categories
Business

Inflation-fighting BoE poised to unleash big rate hike

The Bank of England is expected Thursday to follow other major central banks with an aggressive interest rate hike to tackle surging inflation.

The BoE is tipped to lift its main rate by 0.50 percentage points — the biggest amount in more than a quarter of a century.

With inflation spiking globally following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank sprang large hikes last month of 0.75 and 0.50 percentage points respectively.

“After the ECB and the Fed delivered oversized hikes at their July meetings, the Bank of England is likely to feel similar pressure to up the ante at its August meeting,” said BNP Paribas economist Amarjot Sidhu in a note to clients.

The BoE, granted operational independence from the government over monetary policy in 1997, will reveal its latest rate decision at 1100 GMT on Thursday alongside its latest outlook.

That would take borrowing costs to 1.75 percent, at a level last seen in December 2008.

Inflation has also raced higher on supply-chain woes, including labor market shortages in the wake of Brexit, and strong demand for goods and services as the Covid pandemic recedes.

Yet the bank predicts UK inflation will spike to 11 percent later this year — and it was expected to lift this guidance on Thursday.

That could take the average UK household energy bill above £3,000 ($3,600) per year.

“Higher inflation for even longer is the kind of scenario that spooks central banks.”

Economists meanwhile argue that a large rate hike damages the nation’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic — and risks the prospect of recession.

“The… anticipated hike would be harmful to the economy and pile on the pain for people across the country,” said Nigel Green, deVere’s boss of financial consultants.

Until now, the BoE has not hiked its rates by more than 0.25 percentage points each time.

Liz Truss is currently ahead in the polls against fellow Conservative and former finance minister Rishi Sunak.

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Categories
US

Why IRS’ $80B expansion is a ‘nightmare’ for small businesses

Small business owners may soon be in for a lengthy and expensive battle with the IRS, tax experts warn.

A key provision in the Inflation Reduction Act — which throws an extra $80 billion to the IRS to improve the agency’s collection of under-reported income — will end up targeting small business owners to pay for the legislation, according to nonpartisan watchdog the Joint Committee on Taxation.

The group estimates that between 78% and 90% of the estimated additional $200 billion the IRS will collect will come from small businesses making less than $200,000 annually.

Just 4% to 9% would come from businesses making north of $500,000 a year — meaning the legislation is in sharp contrast to President Biden’s longstanding claim that he wouldn’t raise taxes on anyone making less than $400,000.

“The IRS will have to target small and medium businesses because they won’t fight back,” Joe Hinchman, executive vice president at the National Taxpayers Union Foundation, told The Post. “We’ve seen this play out before … the IRS says ‘We’re going after the rich’ but when you’re trying to raise that much money, the rich can only get you so far.”

I.R.S.
Increasing the number of IRS agents could hurt small businesses most.
Getty Images

In fact, going after the lower and middle class can actually be more lucrative for IRS auditors than trying to get more money from the wealthy. “The rich have their lawyers and fight it — that’s why the poor are easier to go after,” Hinchman adds.

Accordingly, tax experts warn that the IRS’s audits will be far more painful and costly for small business owners — even for those who think they’re filing their taxes correctly.

manchin
Sens. Joe Manchin and Chuck Schumer have reached a deal that would give the IRS an extra $80 billion.
Getty Images

“Most small businesses aren’t doing anything wrong,” Daniel Bunn, executive vice president at the Tax Foundation, told The Post. “We don’t make the tax code simple and the complicated tax code makes it difficult for small business owners to comply with all the requirements.”

Even if small business owners get everything right, they may still be faced with a headache since part of the IRS expansion will involve sending out more notices and letters to businesses, Bunn adds. For individual contractors or small businesses, an IRS letter that they owe more money or made an error on their taxes can put them underwater.

“Anytime you get an IRS letter, it could take months or years to get it settled — we’re talking many thousands of dollars to address,” Bunn added. “Large companies have constant reviews and lawyers going through everything… small business doesn’t have the resources to fight back in the way.”

The White House has dismissed claims the bill will hurt lower- and middle-income Americans, instead noting the JCT estimate doesn’t take into account how much the bill will offset costs for average Americans like prescription drugs.

But tax experts aren’t so sanguine about the reality of giving the IRS more resources.

“The approach here is to double the IRS workforce, take the leash off, and see how much they can collect,” Hinchman adds. “I think they’ll collect it but it will be quite painful.”

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Categories
Business

Turkey’s inflation jumped to a 24-year high of 79.6 percent in July | Inflation News

Turkey’s inflation has been fueled by the lira’s continued decline as well as the economic consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Turkish inflation rose to a fresh 24-year high of 79.6 percent in July, data showed on Wednesday as the lira’s continued weakness and global energy and commodity costs pushed prices higher, though the price rises came out below forecasts.

Inflation began to surge last autumn, when the lira slumped after the central bank gradually cut its policy rate by 500 basis points to 14 percent in an easing cycle sought by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Month-on-month, consumer prices rose 2.37 percent in July, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) said, below a Reuters news agency poll forecast of 2.9 percent. Annually, consumer price inflation was forecast to be 80.5 percent.

Jason Tuvey, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said annual inflation may be approaching a peak, with energy inflation falling sharply and food inflation appearing close to topping out.

“Even if inflation is close to a peak, it will remain close to its current very high rates for several more months,” Tuvey said in a note.

“Sharp and disorderly falls in the lira remain a key risk,” he said.

The biggest annual rise in consumer prices was in the transportation sector, up 119.11 percent, while food and non-alcoholic drinks prices climbed 94.65 percent.

Inflation this year has been fueled further by the economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as the lira’s continued decline. The currency weakened 44 percent against the United States dollar last year, and is down another 27 percent this year.

The lira was trading flat after the data at 17.9560 against the dollar. It touched a record low of 18.4 in December.

Annual inflation is now at the highest level since September 1998, when it reached 80.4 percent and Turkey was battling to end a decade of chronically high inflation.

Last week’s Reuters news poll showed annual inflation was seen declining to some 70 percent by end-2022, easing from current levels as base effects from last year’s price surge take effect.

The domestic producer price index climbed 5.17 percent month-on-month in July for an annual rise of 144.61 percent.

The government has said inflation will fall as a result of its economic programme, which prioritizes low rates to boost production and exports and aims to achieve a current account surplus.

Erdogan has said that he expects inflation to come down to “appropriate” levels by February-March next year, while the central bank raised its end-2022 forecast to 60.4 percent last Thursday from 42.8 percent previously.

The bank’s inflation report showed the estimated range of inflation reaching nearly 90 percent this autumn before easing.

Opposition lawmakers and economists have questioned the reliability of the TUIK figures, claims TUIK has dismissed. Polls show Turks believe inflation is far higher than official data.

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Categories
Australia

Borrowers to feel the heat as RBA raises rates again, but new customers get cheaper deals

As the Reserve Bank raises interest rates for the fourth time in four months, home loan borrowers are bracing for more repayment pain.

The official interest rate is now at its highest level in six years, at 1.85 per cent, up from a record low of 0.1 per cent at the start of May.

Some economists say the RBA is only halfway through its rate-hiking cycle, with the goal of reaching, or even exceeding, 3 per cent by the end of the year.

As the cost of money goes up, the big four banks have dramatically raised interest rates for existing customers with variable-rate loans, and more rate rises are expected.

RateCity said bank customers could expect to see an average variable rate of 4.61 per cent if today’s RBA rate rise was passed on in full.

It said the accumulated 1.75 per cent rise in borrowing costs that had occurred since early May would add an extra $472 a month to mortgage repayments for the typical borrower with a 25-year, $500,000 loan.

Borrowers with a $1 million mortgage would have to pay an extra $944 a month.

Table showing monthly mortgage repayment estimates
RateCity’s estimate of the cost of RBA rate rises on monthly mortgage repayments. (RateCity: Supplied)

Fixed rates are rising

The rates offered for new fixed-rate loans are rising noticeably.

It comes as new Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data show the proportion of new home loans being written with fixed rates has plunged to 9 per cent, down from the July 2021 peak of 46 per cent.

Sally Tindall, the research director at RateCity.com.au, said 90 lenders raised rates on fixed-term home loans last month before this latest increase.

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Business

Fresh food prices may be soaring, but how much of your cash is making it back to the farm?

Lettuces have crossed the $10 mark, milk prices are being bumped up by the major supermarkets and strawberries are $6 a punnet.

Nearly everywhere you look, the price of food and other farmed goods is on the rise.

You would be forgiven for thinking this must be a great time for Australian farmers, preferably while gazing out the window at gentle rain.

Not remove.

Prices on the rise

Understanding what’s driving the price of any commodity can be a mind-bending exercise at the best of times.

The current situation is broadly due to a number of issues, the first of which has to do with the nature of the Australian growing season.

Australian vegetables come from different parts of the country depending on season. At the moment the primary supplier is Queensland.

Earlier this year some of its growing regions were smashed by two floods in 11 weeks.

Flooding of field at Mulgowie School Road in Lockyer Valley showing brown flood water through a field
Queensland’s Lockyer Valley flooded earlier this year and destroyed large vegetable crops.(Supplied: Lockyer Valley Regional Council)

Belinda Frentz is a herb grower on the state’s Gold Coast and deputy chair of Australia’s peak body representing vegetable growers, AUSVEG.

She said the damage to crops caused already high prices to climb even further.

“When you get a loss of that magnitude, it’s not the price that’s significant, it’s the production loss that’s associated with that,” Ms Frentz said.

“Anything that increases in price is usually associated with a loss somewhere in the supply chain.

“When we’re processing less than half of the volumes that we usually would, obviously the demand for that product increases exponentially and there’s just not the availability of the products.”

Farmers with hidden costs

Like every industry, farming has costs. There are start-up costs, such as the price of crop seed for the year, the cost of land, or the price of buying livestock.

Then there are input costs, things like fertilizer, fuel, chemicals, water and labour.

In short, they are the products necessary to do business — similar to fixed costs for personal budgets, such as rent and electricity.

These costs fluctuate naturally, but recent world events have thrown a spanner into the works.

small white urea pellets spill form an augur into a large trailer as a woman watches from the side
Common fertilizer, urea, jumped from $750 a tonne in 2021 to $1,300 in 2022.(Rural ABC: Clint Jasper)

Fertilizer costs began to spike in mid-2021 when China announced restrictions on exports, but the war in Ukraine has driven that price even higher.

The price of fuel has also been abnormally high, particularly for diesel, which is not just used in tractors, but also fuels the trucks that haul produce from the farm to processors, wholesalers and supermarkets.

The ongoing global hangover from the pandemic has also slowed Australian imports of these commodities to a crawl.

Creating a perfect storm

While each of these costs may have been manageable on their own, together they have created a perfect storm.

Ms Frentz said the costs were eating into what little profits many producers were making.

“We all know what our costs of production are and we know that they’ve increased,” she said.

Woman kneels down amongst rows of green and red lettuce.  She smiles at the camera holding loose lettuce leaves in her hands.
Belinda Frentz says flood damage to crops caused already high prices to climb further.(Supplied: Belinda Frentz)

“I think the new pricing of fresh [food] will be around the input pressure costs that we’ve got, and that we can’t do anything about.

“Like everybody at the moment under household pressures about the cost of living, growers are experiencing that across the board.

“For us to be sustainable, we have to be profitable.”

A tale of two growers

But with prices so high, how much of that money is actually making it back into the pockets of growers?

Melbourne-based wholesaler Michael Piccolo believed the situation had divided growers into two distinct groups.

“You’ll get a certain grower that doesn’t have the yield, so basically whatever they’re producing is only covering the cost of production,” Mr Piccolo said.

“Then you’ll have a grower who has a full crop and they just base their sales on what’s going on around the Australian market.

A man is standing in front of a sign that says Piccolo Fresh
Melbourne vegetable wholesaler Michael Piccolo believes the market is over inflated.(Supplied: Michael Piccolo)

“Certain markets like Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney will compete against each other, so when one sets a price, everyone else has to follow suit.”

Mr Piccolo also believes that, while input costs are a large part of current costs, it is competitive bidding from buyers that is driving up prices.

“I think it’s a contributing factor. My opinion, though, is that it’s a bit too inflated and we’re about 20-30 per cent above where we really need to be.”

When will prices come down?

The good news is that relief is on the horizon.

Mr Piccolo believes prices will fall as the season shifts away from Queensland growers and back towards those in southern Australia.

“The changeover of seasons happens around September to October, so a lot of these products that we have to purchase from Queensland start to come down during the Victorian season,” he said.

“My prediction is that we’ll start to see prices reduce more towards the mid-to-end of September, and then the Victorian growing season will kick in.

“However, I can’t see it making it’s way back down to the prices we’ve gotten used to,

“I think it will probably settle around at 10 to 20 per cent above what we are traditionally used to pay.”

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US

White House admits Inflation Reduction Act will barely impact inflation

The $739 billion Democratic spending plan dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act will barely affect prices over the next decade, experts say — and even the White House admitted it Monday.

According to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, the 725-page bill hammered out by Sens. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Joe Manchin (D-WV) would only lower the Consumer Price Index – a closely watched gauge that measures what consumers paid for goods and services –0.33% by 2031.

“Through the middle of this decade the impact of the legislation on inflation is marginal, but it becomes more meaningful later in the decade,” Zandi wrote.

Jesse Lee, a senior communications adviser to the National Economic Council, was quick to tout Zandi’s findingstweeting, “This is actually the overwhelming consensus.”

“White House officials’ own rosiest, best-case-scenario spin is that their ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ will have taken one third of one percentage point off inflation by nine years from now?” Andrew Quinn, a speechwriter for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), asked incredulously.

“White House comms spiking the ball over a bill that doesn’t reduce inflation until 9 years from now,” mocked Heritage Foundation spokesman Jon Cooper. “And keep in mind, this is obviously the best number they could come up with.”

The White House admitted the Inflation Reduction Act from Sens. Joe Manchin and Chuck Schumer won't impact prices much over the next decade.
The White House admitted the Inflation Reduction Act from Sens. Joe Manchin and Chuck Schumer won’t impact prices much over the next decade.
Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Schumer and Manchin have claimed the bill would reduce inflation by lowering prescription drug and energy costs while reducing the federal budget deficit through a 15% minimum tax on corporations that report income of at least $1 billion per year, and increased tax enforcement by the IRS, and increased tax enforcement by the IRS. taking a share of profits earned by general partners at private equity, hedge funds, and venture capital firms known as carried interest.

However, experts say the inflation cure prescribed by the Democrats is likely to be ineffective, and could be worse than the disease.

Alex Muresianu, a federal policy analyst with the Tax Foundation, told The Post on Monday that the corporate tax – also called the “book minimum tax” — would “reduce supply in the long-run by reducing incentives to invest, particularly for manufacturing firms .”

“Meanwhile, on the demand-side, by taking money out of the economy, tax increases in excess of the spending attached could reduce inflation incrementally, but there are a couple problems,” he added. “First, in the first couple years, the bill does not net reduce the deficit — most of the net reduction in the deficit over the ten-year window comes in later years.

Schumer and Manchin claimed the bill would lower prescription drug and energy costs.
Schumer and Manchin claimed the bill would lower prescription drug and energy costs.
Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images

“And second, the tax increases like the book minimum tax are not focused on taxpayers with high marginal propensity to consume, meaning the tax increase does not come with a particularly large reduction in aggregate demand.

“So, on the whole,” Muresianu concluded, “we should expect the bill to have a negligible impact on inflation. The Federal Reserve’s choices will play a much bigger role in whether or not inflation subsides than whether or not this bill passes.”

Levon Galstyan, a Certified Public Accountant with Jersey City-based Oak View Law Group, agreed, noting: The Inflation Reduction Act will shift resources through hundreds of billions of dollars in special-interest subsidies targeted to Democratic constituencies, further limiting supply through restrictions and tax increases.

“A deterrent to output would be that manufacturers would pay around half of all new levies,” Galstyan also told The Post. “The legislation would subject small businesses to a horde of tax enforcers, driving up prices and limiting their capacity to serve customers.”

According to Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, the bill would only lower the Consumer Price Index by 0.33% by 2031.
According to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, the bill would only lower the Consumer Price Index by 0.33% by 2031.
AP Photo/Alex Brandon

Peter Morici, an economist and professor emeritus at the RH Smith School of Business at the University of Maryland, also argued that there was almost no chance the legislation would reduce prices.

“One of the Fed bank presidents [Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis] came out [Sunday] morning … saying we’re going to get inflation down at 2%. If you believe that, then I want you to go to Yankee Stadium on Sunday afternoon and look for me playing shortstop,” Morici told The Post.

“I’m 73 years old. I was a pretty damn good middle infielder, but I didn’t have much of a career because I never could hit the breaking ball,” he added. “I mean, that’s as credible as I’m gonna play shortstop for the New York Yankees.”

Other experts have pointed out that the legislation fails to provide a long-term solution for bringing down inflation.

“Inflation results from deep-set, fundamental issues and this bill does nothing to address those factors,” said James Lucier, managing director at Washington-based policy research firm Capital Alpha.

Biden administration official Jesse Lee, a senior communications adviser to the National Economic Council, agreed with Zandi's findings.
Biden administration official Jesse Lee, a senior communications adviser to the National Economic Council, agreed with Zandi’s findings.
AP Photo/Susan Walsh

“Inflation will probably fix itself over a ten year period, if we’re lucky,” Lucier told The Post, labeling the supposed “anti-inflationary effects” of the legislation as “smoke and mirrors.”

Rather than bringing down prices, some of the economists suggested that federal tax credits for Americans to buy electric vehicles and the extension of ObamaCare subsidies would exacerbate the problem.

“They’re giving people money to buy electric vehicles. They’re in short supply. The lithium that goes into them is in short supply. That’s gonna raise the price of electric vehicles,” said Morici, who added that “additional subsidies to buy health insurance is not going to lower the cost of health insurance, it’s going to increase the price.”

“Many of the incentives that are in the bill tend to increase the price of components for products that go into the electrical grid and so forth,” Morici continued. “So it’s basically giving people money to chase products that are in short supply.”

Will McBride, VP of federal tax and economic policy at the Tax Foundation, echoed that concern, saying the ObamaCare subsidies would make “entitlement spending” worse.

“Essentially,” McBride said, “the value of the dollar is getting diminished as the federal government’s ability to repay its debt diminishes.”

Additional reporting by Lydia Moynihan and Ariel Zilber.

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Categories
US

Federal emergency savings proposals may also increase retirement funding

Nirunya Juntoomma | istock | Getty Images

It’s no secret that households with sufficient emergency savings are more the exception than the norm.

Two proposals in the Senate aim to change that. And, experts say, tackling the problem could lend itself to workers saving more for their golden years.

“One of the best ways to protect retirement savings is to help families more effectively weather short-term emergency savings needs,” said Angela Antonelli, executive director of Georgetown University’s Center for Retirement Initiatives.

Pandemic showed the need for savings

The Covid-19 pandemic shone a light on the many workers who were unprepared for the financial struggles that ensued from suddenly being without a job and income. While generous government aid aimed to keep families afloat as the economy righted itself, Americans now find themselves battling inflation and rising interest rates that are making both buying and borrowing more expensive.

The overall share of Americans who are either very comfortable (13%) or somewhat comfortable (29%) with their emergency savings dropped to 42% in June from 54% two years ago, according to a recent Bankrate report.

While some companies are offering emergency savings accounts to employees, the Senate proposals come with certain parameters and are both linked to 401(k) plans.

The proposals were approved in separate committees in late June as part of that chamber’s evolving version of the so-called Secure Act 2.0. The legislation would build on the original Secure Act of 2019 by making additional changes to the US retirement system in an effort to increase the ranks of savers and the amount they’re putting away for their post-working years.

The first proposal being considered would allow companies to automatically enroll their employees in emergency savings accounts, at 3% of pay, that could be accessed at least once a month. Workers would be able to save up to $2,500 in the account, and any excess contributions would automatically go to a linked 401(k) plan account at the company.

The other Senate proposal takes a different approach: It would let workers withdraw up to $1,000 from their 401(k) or individual retirement account to cover emergency expenses without having to pay the typical 10% tax penalty for early withdrawal if they are under age 59½ .

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However, a separate account would be the preferable of the two so that people would be less likely to make withdrawals from their 401(k), Antonelli said.

“It helps prevent leakage from retirement savings,” she said.

However, for workers who have access to a 401(k) or similar workplace plan but don’t participate, having emergency funds available could spur them to enroll in their company’s retirement plan, said Leigh Phillips, president and CEO of SaverLife, a nonprofit focused on helping households build savings.

“One of the big things that prevents people participating in long-term savings is a lack of short-term liquidity for emergencies,” Phillips said.

One of the big things that prevents people participating in long-term savings is a lack of short-term liquidity for emergencies.

leigh phillips

President and CEO of SaverLife

In traditional 401(k) plans, where contributions are made pre-tax, the penalty for withdrawing from an account comes with a 10% tax penalty if the person is under age 59½ (unless they meet an exception allowed by the plan).

“Having money locked away that you can’t touch is alarming to some people,” Phillips said.

That concern is addressed in state-facilitated retirement programs, which generally auto-enroll workers — those without access to a workplace plan — into Roth IRAs (individuals can opt out of enrollment if they want).

Why Roth accounts can give peace of mind

Roth accounts come with no upfront tax break for contributions as traditional IRAs do, but you generally can reclaim your contributions at any time without an early-withdrawal penalty.

The Roth structure “offers greater flexibility and more conditions that allow someone to tap those savings if they need to,” Antonelli said.

Altogether, 46 states have either implemented or considered legislation since 2012 to create retirement savings initiatives to reach workers without a plan at work. More than $476 million is collectively invested through these plans, according to Antonelli’s organization.

Although there are some minor differences among the state-run programs, the general idea is that employees are automatically enrolled in a Roth IRA through a payroll deduction (starting around 3% or 5%) unless they opt out.

It’s uncertain if either of the Senate’s emergency-savings proposals would make it into that chamber’s final version of the Secure Act 2.0, or whether an approved provision would look exactly like what’s been proposed.

The House passed its version of the Secure Act 2.0 in March. It’s uncertain when the Senate may revisit its rendition. Assuming senators give their approval, differences between their legislation and the House bill would need to be worked out before a final version could be fully approved by Congress.

If it doesn’t happen this year, the legislative process would start over in a future Congress.

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US

Manchin touts inflation reduction bill, says ‘I’m not getting involved’ in upcoming elections

Sen. Joe Manchin in the US Capitol on Tuesday, June 14, 2022. Sen. Joe Manchin, DW.Va., and his staff told Democratic leadership on Thursday that he’s not willing to support better climate and tax provisions in a sweeping Biden agenda bill, according to a Democrat briefed on the conversations.

Tom-Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

Senator Joe Manchin, DW.V., made the morning talk show rounds on Sunday to talk about the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, a revival of President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better economic bill that collapsed earlier this year.

The inflation bill, which Democrats are attempting to pass through reconciliation, aims to reform the tax code, cut health-care costs and fight climate change. It will invest more than $400 billion over a decade by closing tax loopholes, mostly on the largest and richest American corporations. It would also reduce the deficit by $300 billion in the same decade-long timeframe.

“This is all about fighting inflation,” Manchin told Jonathan Karl on Sunday’s “This Week” on ABC.

Manchin insisted that the bill isn’t a spending bill, but instead is focusing on investing money.

“We’ve taken $3.5 trillion of spending down to $400 billion of investing without raising any taxes whatsoever, we closed some loopholes, didn’t raise any taxes,” he added.

He further explained the closing of tax loopholes, which will raise taxes on certain American companies. Any tax increase could jeopardize full Democratic support of the legislation, which it needs to pass through reconciliation – Senator Kyrsten Sinema, DA.Z., may not support this provision.

“The only thing we have done is basically say that every corporation of a billion dollars of value or greater in America should pay at least 15% of minimum corporate tax,” he said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

“That’s not a tax increase it’s closing a loophole,” he said.

Manchin also noted that a deal between Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-NY, and he was struck in private to avoid drama.

“We’ve been negotiating off and on very quietly because I didn’t know if it would ever come to fruition,” he said. “I didn’t want to go through the drama that eight months ago we went through for so long.”

Manchin added that he’s struck an agreement with Democratic leaders to support the bill in exchange for taking on permitting reform later.

“If I don’t fulfill my commitment promise that I will vote and support this bill with all my heart, there are consequences, and there are consequences on both sides,” he said on “Meet the Press.”

Manchin also noted that the bill will especially target energy prices in the US by upping production and using clean energy effectively.

“Inflation is the greatest challenge we have in our country right now,” he said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “If you want to get gasoline prices down, produce more and produce it in America.”

manchin dodges election talk

During his Sunday interviews, Manchin repeatedly evaded answering questions about who he supports in upcoming elections – the 2022 midterms and the 2024 presidential election.

“I’m not getting involved in any election right now,” he said on “State of the Union.”

He reiterated that he would work with anyone that voters elect and specifically wouldn’t answer if he wants Democrats to keep control of Congress come November.

“Whatever the voters choose,” he said on “Meet the Press.” “Whoever you send me that’s your representative and I respect them.”

When specifically asked if he’d support Biden in reelection, he focused on Biden’s current presidency.

“Whoever is my president, that’s my president, and Joe Biden is my president right now,” he said on “This Week.”

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