Infectious disease experts have warned that, while Australia might have passed the peak of its winter COVID-19 wave, there could still be future surges and strains of the deadly virus in the future.
Key points:
Health authorities say Australia may have hit its winter COVID-19 peak earlier than predicted
But they warn the virus has repeatedly mutated and different strains still pose a real risk
On August 10, there were 133 deaths and 27,263 new cases recorded nationwide
James Cook University’s Professor Emma McBryde told the ABC that, while she was “cautiously optimistic” about the latest Omicron wave being over, there was still a risk of new COVID-19 variants.
“We’re still seeing a lot of deaths, [more than] 100 a day across Australia, which is an alarming number,” she said.
“We should be concerned about it rather than just dismissing it, but we should be cautiously optimistic that, bit by bit, we’re going to see a decline in cases in the medium term.
“I’m much-less optimistic about it being all over, as in the whole COVID pandemic being over,” she said.
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“Because we’ve seen this virus mutate again and again, and some of those mutations make it milder and more infectious, and other mutations make it more severe and more infectious.
“So we don’t know what’s coming next.
“I wouldn’t be bold enough to make any statements on [the end of the pandemic].”
On Wednesday, Australia recorded 27,263 new cases of COVID-19 and 133 deaths. There were 4,415 cases being treated in hospital.
Federal Health Minister Mark Butler also said last week he was cautiously optimistic the most-recent wave had peaked.
“The data we’re seeing right now indicates we might have reached the peak earlier than we expected to,” he said on August 4.
Health Minister Mark Butler has warned of the “school holiday effect” on case numbers. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)
“We’re being a bit cautious about that because what we’ve seen through the pandemic is the ‘school holiday effect’, which shows numbers and transmission takes a slightly different course because of different activity in the school holidays.”
Professor Robert Booy — an infectious diseases pediatrician at the University of Sydney — said there was a “lot of good news.”
“The possibility of a new variant remains there, but we don’t see one on the horizon,” he said.
“[The Indian sub variant BA2.75] has fizzled out and we’ve had BA5 now for six months without a new variant taking over.
“So our immunity to BA5 is getting better and better.
Professor Robert Booy warns against complacency towards COVID-19. (ABC: 7.30)
“There isn’t a variant yet that looks likely to replace it, so there is hope on the horizon.”
However, I added, it was “no time for complacency.”
“We’re still seeing rampant deaths,” he said.
“It’s in front of our eyes and we’re looking at it with rose-tinted glasses. We’re seeing the positive and forgetting so many people are still dying and being damaged.”
He said the elderly and disabled were, “first of all”, precious people.
University of South Australia epidemiologist and biostatistician Professor Adrian Esterman said three key things needed to be done to improve case numbers:
1.Higher percentage of the population getting their booster shot
two.Encouraging correct usage of face masks in the correct places
3.Better ventilation of indoor areas.
“If those three things are done, we have a much better chance of getting these case numbers lower,” he said.
“This is all assuming if this trend continues with new sub-variants of Omicron.
“That might not be the case. Tomorrow there might be a new variant, which would be called Pi, and that will be more transmissible than BA5 because that’s how these viruses take over.
“It could potentially be far more deadly. We simply don’t know.
“Are we getting towards the end game of this? Yes.
“We are for two reasons, we have vaccines that work reasonably well to stop people from dying [and] we have reasonably good antivirals.
“So we’re in a much better place than the start of the pandemic but it’s not over yet.”
Native trees like the paperbark are central to the culture of the traditional owners of K’Gari (Fraser Island).
“These species are living stories,” says Matilda Davis, who works with the Butchulla Aboriginal Corporation as a biosecurity and climate change officer on the World Heritage-listed island.
Matilda Davis has been checking the health of trees after wild fires on K’gari (Fraser Island).(Supplied: Matilda Davis)
Apart from many being edible or medicinal, these trees have ancestral and spiritual connections, and are key to the health of Butchulla country, she says.
For example, the paperbark (Melaleuca quinquenervia)—called “deebing“ by the Butchulla people — can let them know when it’s safe to sustainably harvest certain foods.
“When the deebing flowers, it’s a seasonal indicator for particular kinds of seafood,” Ms Davis says.
Paperbark and other tea-trees belong to a large family known as Myrtaceae, which also include eucalypts, lilly pillies, bottlebrushes and guavas.
But a pandemic of an invasive fungal disease is making it harder for some Myrtaceae species to bounce back after intense bushfires.
Myrtle rust (Austropuccinia psidii), which can appear as a bloom of golden spots on leaves, can suck the life out of new growth.
The disease, which was first detected on K’gari in 2013, is a real worry for the Butchulla, Ms Davis says.
“Myrtle rust is threatening our ability to practice culture.”
The ‘other pandemic’: the spread of myrtle rust
Myrtle rust originally comes from South America, where the native Myrtaceae species have co-evolved a natural resistance to it.
But, the plant fungus has jumped from the wild — not unlike the virus that causes COVID-19 — and become a “pandemic strain”, causing disease across the globe.
The pandemic strain (see pink) is the most wide-spread strain of myrtle rust.(Supplied: Alistair McTaggart)
Its tiny spores have hitched a ride on the wind or on people’s clothes, with globalization playing a key role in the spread.
The disease has proven devastating to many “naïve” species of Myrtaceae that did not evolve with fungus.
Since it landed in Australia in 2010, it has infected forests in New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria, the Northern Territory, Tasmania and most recently Western Australia.
Tiny myrtle rust spores, which are so light they can spread on the wind, as seen under the microscope.(Supplied: Geoff Pegg)
Fungus targets growing tips of plant
When the fungus lands on species susceptible to infection it can robthe plant’s cells of nutrients, and kills off the growing tips — the new leaves, stems, flowers and fruit.
The plant is forced to put more energy into new growth, but if the plant cannot fight off the fungus, it becomes re-infected.
Midyim berry fruits are being attacked by the fungus before they can even mature.(Supplied: Matilda Davis)
“So you get this repeated cycle of growth and dieback and eventually the plant runs out of reserves and declines,” says forest pathologist Geoff Pegg of the Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries.
Dr Pegg has been working to document the impacts of myrtle rust on trees impacted by fire, including on K’Gari where he is collaborating with Ms Davis and the Butchulla Aboriginal Corporation.
A shrub called midyim berry (Austromyrtus dulcis) is among the Myrtaceae species affected on K’Gari.
The plant is important for the health of the country, Ms Davis says.
She says many animals depend on the berry, which is “sweet with a distinct aftertaste.”
But myrtle rust affects the formation of the flowers and tasty berries in plants growing in areas recovering from bushfire.
‘Unprecedented’ extinction event of rainforest species likely
A recent survey of rainforests in Eastern Australia predicted a “plant extinction event of unprecedented magnitude” due to myrtle rust.
“Sixteen speciesare doomed with extinction within a generation,” says co-author of the survey, Rod Fensham, a plant ecologist from the University of Queensland.
Among the most at risk were the thready-bark myrtle (Gossia inophloia) and native guava (Rhodomyrtus psidioides).
And a further 20 species could be at risk.
“It’s an extraordinary example of a disease phenomenon,” he says.
“It’s a pretty profound event.”
Native guava (Rhodomyrtus psidioides) is at risk of going extinct thanks to myrtle rust.(Supplied: Glenn Leiper)
Dr Pegg has also seen the devastating effects of myrtle rust on the east coast, and not just in rainforests.
“There are thousands of dead trees in some sites that we’ve looked at.”
He points to one forest at Tullebudgera not far from the Gold Coast, where there were 3,400 dead trees per hectare.
When he started the study in 2014, the high-rainfall forest was dominated by Myrtaceae species such as eucalypts and silky myrtle (Decaspermum humile).
Now most of seedlings that are surviving are non-Myrtaceae natives, and weeds like lantana and camphor laurel.
All mature silky myrtle trees (Decaspermum humile) are now dead at the Tallebudgera study site, Dr Pegg says.(Supplied: Geoff Pegg)
fire and rust
While Dr Fensham doesn’t count paperbarks among the worst affected trees, others like Dr Pegg emphasize they are still at risk, especially after bushfires.
“We’ve seen quite significant impacts in some sites,” Dr Pegg says.
Bob Makinson of the Australian Network for Plant Conservation is also worried about paperbarks from a biodiversity perspective.
Paperbark trees (Melaleuca quinquenervia) vary in their susceptibility to myrtle rust.(Supplied: Glenn Leiper)
Even without sending paperbarks extinct, he says, the impact of myrtle rust on such species could have broader implications for the ecology.
“The paperbark is such an important tree for wetlands and riverbanks where there are not many other trees that can tolerate the water-logging conditions there,” Mr Makinson, a conservation botanist, says.
“This species is important for providing shade on the water, for reducing erosion and for keeping freshwater wetlands running.”
Paperbark forests play an important ecological role.(Supplied: Glenn Leiper)
And, he adds, insects, birds and flying foxes rely on the paperbark’s flowers.
“We don’t know what the knock-on effects will be of reduced flowering in those populations that are severely affected by myrtle rust,” Mr Makinson says.
Some individual trees in a species are more resistant to myrtle rust — just as some of us appear to be naturally more resistant to COVID-19.
But Dr Pegg says only 15 to 35 per cent of paperbark seedlings in New South Wales study sites have shown natural resistance to the fungus.
Ms Davis says another species on K’Gari that’s being “smashed” by fire and rust is the the Satinay (Syncarpia hilli).(Supplied: Matilda Davis)
What about eucalypts?
During the 1970s, myrtle rust decimated eucalypts in Brazil, where they were planted as an exotic tree.
Thankfully, testing so far has showneucalypts growing natively in Australia have promising levels of resistance, although there is some concern about a few eucalypt species.
And just as we’ve had to worry about the rise of more infectious strains of COVID-19, new strains of myrtle rust may be on the way.
This Plunkett mallee (Eucalyptus curtisii) is one eucalypt that could be at risk from myrtle rust.(Supplied: Glenn Leiper)
In fact, last year, Brazilian scientists reported the evolution of a new “highly aggressive” fungus that was attacking eucalypt plantations in that country, which had been bred to be resistant.
“An introduction of a new strain like that to Australia could actually increase the risk to our eucalypts,” Dr Pegg says.
Stopping the spread to save species
To stop the spread of the disease to new areas, quarantine is essential – as is monitoring.
When the fungus reached the Northern Territory in 2018, this kicked off a monitoring program which subsequently picked up myrtle rust in the Kimberley region of Western Australia.
Symptoms of myrtle rust can appear variable and are sometimes hard to identify the disease unless the plants are dripping with what some have described as a “yellow sludge” of spores.
Botanic gardens and others are using every tool in the book to identify plants with natural resistance to myrtle rust.
The idea is to preserve seed or other biological material which could be crucial in saving species.
And, it wouldn’t be a pandemic without a vaccine in the wings — Australian scientists hope to use RNA-interference vaccines to get the fungus to self-destruct.
Another tree at risk of extinction is the thready bark myrtle (Gossia inophloia), which has edible fruit.(Supplied: Glenn Leiper)
But you can also help by washing your clothes (including hat!) if you’ve been in the bush in affected states, and by following quarantine rules.
And think about planting threatened species in your backyard.
Dr Fensham suggests that native guavas can make a nice addition to the home garden.
“We need more people committed to growing these things and trying to get them to reproduce,” he says.
Avoiding ‘upside-down country’
Meanwhile, back on K’Gari, Ms Davis hopes to collect seeds from paperbarks and other affected trees in an effort to conserve genetic diversity, which will be key to their survival.
And she wants to see a shift away from “bad fires” with high flames that leads to a reverse in the color scheme of forests—resulting in brown burnt treetops and green new growth below.
“That is a good indicator for us that that country is stressed,” she says.
“We call it upside-down country.”
After an intense hot fire the colour-scheme of forests can be reversed.(Supplied: Matilda Davis)
She says evidence links cooler, less-intense fires with lower impacts from myrtle rust infection.
So she’d like to see a move towards traditional “Galangoor gira” — or “good fire” — practices, something Dr Pegg agrees could be explored in the future.
Ms Davis says the “positive and respectful” partnership with scientists like Dr Pegg is allowing for a two-way learning, placing traditional custodians of the land at the center of the response to ecological problems like myrtle rust
“I do believe the answers are in our old people’s ways.” she says.
Australia’s ability to protect itself from pests and disease is at the center of a new national strategy agreed to by federal, state and territory ministers.
Key points:
Australia has set out its first national biosecurity plan
States and territories will work together to keep pests and weeds out of the country
There are increased risks of pests and disease that could devastate Australia’s farm sector
Addressing the National Rural Press Club in Canberra today, federal Agriculture Minister Murray Watt will release the first National Biosecurity Strategy.
“The biosecurity risks we’re facing as a nation are closer and they’re more threatening than we’ve ever seen before and that’s partly as a result of climate change, shifting trade and travel patterns, different land uses,” Senator Watt told the ABC.
“There’s a range of factors we’re dealing with now as a country that we haven’t seen before and that is increasing the risk of biosecurity [issues] for our farmers and their products.”
The risks include the threat of African swine fever, lumpy skin disease and foot and mouth disease, which are currently spreading through nearby Asian countries.
Senator Watt said the new strategy would ensure governments and industry worked together to protect Australia.
“By aligning all the key players, we can ensure that everyone [is] working together to counter the biosecurity threats we face,” he said.
“Australia’s biosecurity system is a critical national asset and shared responsibility, and this strategy is for all Australians.”
According to the strategy, Australia receives 115 million parcels through its mail centers each year, with 2.6 million shipping containers arriving at the country’s ports.
Call for sustainable funding model
The strategy sets out six priority areas for governments, including “shared biosecurity culture, stronger partnerships, highly skilled workforce, coordinated preparedness, integration supported by technology, research and data; and sustainable investment”.
“We will ensure funding and investment is sufficient, co-funded, transparent, targeted to our priorities and sustainable for the long term,” the strategy states.
It does not make clear how biosecurity services will be funded.
The National Farmers’ Federation has long called for a sustainable funding model for Australia’s biosecurity services.
The former Coalition government axed plans to introduce a levy on shipping containers that would have raised $325 million over three years to fund biosecurity.
Speaking on the release of the strategy, NFF president Fiona Simson said biosecurity had to be a priority.
“A coordinated and well-resourced and innovative biosecurity system is fundamental to the success of our agriculture industries and in supporting the goal of becoming a $100 billion sector by 2030,” she said.
The National Biosecurity Strategy comes after a National Biosecurity Statement was agreed to in 2018.
“I’ll give credit to the former government for beginning this process,” Senator Watt said.
“What’s really important though is that governments don’t just have a good idea, they actually deliver a good idea.
“I’ve made finalizing this strategy and reaching collaboration with the states and territories an early priority for me as the new minister.”
NSW Health has put out a public health alert after meningococcal disease was identified in two people who attended the Splendor in the Grass music festival a fortnight ago.
One of those cases, a man in his 40s, has died with the disease.
NSW Health says the disease is uncommon, but it’s urging people who went to Splendor in the Grass at the North Byron Parklands to watch for symptoms and act immediately if they appear.
What are the symptoms of meningococcal?
Perhaps one of the best-known symptoms is a rash with dark red and purple spots, but the Department of Health says that comes at the later stages of infection.
The meningococcal rash doesn’t disappear with gentle pressure on the skin like other rashes might, NSW Health says.
Not everyone with meningococcal disease gets a rash.
NSW Health says meningococcal symptoms are non-specific and may not all be present at once.
People with the disease might notice leg pain, cold hands and abnormal skin color before the onset of the typical symptoms, which may include:
sudden onset of fever
headache
neck stiffness
joint pain
a rash of red-purple spots or bruises
dislike of bright lights
nausea and vomiting
Symptoms for young children may be less specific.
Here’s what to watch out for:
irritability
difficulty waking
high pitched crying
refuse to eat
Splendor in the Grass was held at the North Byron Parklands a fortnight ago. (Russell Privett/triple j )
What is meningococcal?
It’s a serious bacterial infection that can be fatal.
People with the disease can become severely unwell quite quickly, with the Department of Health urging people with a suspected infection to see a doctor immediately.
“It can kill within hours, so early diagnosis and treatment is vital,” the Department of Health website says.
“Do not wait for the purple rash to appear as that is a late stage of the disease.”
Usually, meningococcal causes blood poisoning and/or meningitis — which is inflammation of the brain and spinal cord.
It can also result in severe scarring, loss of limbs and brain damage.
What is the meningococcal fatality rate?
Between five and 10 per cent of patients with the disease die.
How does meningococcal spread?
Meningococcal bacteria is passed on through secretions from the back of the nose and throat.
Typically, it needs close and prolonged contact to be passed from one person to another.
Meningococcal bacteria don’t survive well outside the human body, with NSW Health saying the disease isn’t easily spread by sharing food, drinks or cigarettes.
NSW Health says people in the following groups are at higher risk of contracting the disease:
household contacts of patients with meningococcal disease
infants, small children, adolescents and young adults
people who smoke or are exposed to tobacco smoke
people who practice intimate (deep mouth) kissing, especially with more than one partner
people who have recently had a viral upper respiratory tract illness
travelers to countries with high rates of meningococcal disease
people with no working spleen or who have certain other rare medical conditions
Is there a meningococcal vaccine?
And it is.
NSW Health says people should watch for symptoms even if they’re vaccinated against meningococcal.(AFP: Science Photo Library)
The Department of Health says meningococcal vaccines are recommended for:
infants, children, adolescents and young adults
special risk groups, including Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, individuals with certain medical conditions, laboratory workers who frequently handle Neisseria meningitidis, travellers, and young adults who live in close quarters or who are current smokers
But anyone who wants to protect themselves against meningococcal should talk to their doctor.
Adolescents are offered the shot via school vaccination programs.
You can check to see if you’re vaccinated by viewing your immunization history statement through Medicare.
But NSW Health says routine childhood vaccines don’t protect against all strains of the disease, so even vaccinated people should still be alert for symptoms.
The Victorian government will establish an Emergency Animal Disease (EAD) task force to prepare for an incursion of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), which is currently circulating through parts of Indonesia.
Key points:
The Victorian government has developed a task force to prepare for a foot and mouth disease outbreak
Foot and mouth disease affects livestock such as sheep, cattle, goats and pigs
Three hundred biosecurity staff are being trained in disease mitigation
The task force would be co-chaired by Agriculture Victoria chief executive officer Matt Lowe and the Emergency Management Commissioner Andrew Crisp, taking advice from Victoria’s Chief Veterinarian Graeme Cooke.
The Australian government has ramped up biosecurity measures to prevent foot-and-mouth and lumpy skin disease entering the country, since it was discovered in Bali, Indonesia a month ago.
Experts fear the exotic livestock diseases could cost the economy billions if it made it into Australia.
“We want to get a focus and targeted government response to a whole range of things we need to put in place in terms of being prepared and to prevent an outbreak,” Victorian Agriculture Minister Gayle Tierney said.
“[The task force] will be looking at things like developing an EAD response plan and will also be looking at access to sufficient personal protective equipment and the supply chain issues that we have in respect to testing, tracing, destruction, disposal and vaccination.”
‘No delay’ in task force formation
Ms Tierney said there had been a “lot of work already underway” that would help mitigate any EAD threats, including coordinating with the national process for service and infrastructure continuity.
The symptoms of foot-and-mouth disease on the tongue of an Indonesian cow.(Supplied: Dok. Kementan)
“It’s clear that there is anxiety within the farming community, people are wanting to know more and we’ve been able to give very practical advice through webinars,” she said.
“This is a good time [to] have those conversations at a grassroots level that give farmers the opportunity to turn that anxiety into very positive practical measures.
“We have a very clear understanding of what the risks are and what we need to do to ramp things up to ensure our preparedness is the best it could possibly be.”
Three hundred biosecurity staff were being trained through Agriculture Victoria to prepare for an FMD outbreak in the state, learning about scenario planning and emergency exercises.
Ms Tierney said despite Indonesia having FMD present in the country for months, the taskforce was a “rapid response”.
“This is a whole of government response, not just Agriculture Victoria, and that’s a fairly quick landing in terms of getting this task force off the ground,” she said.
“Of course there has been lots of work that has been done all the way through, Victoria’s biosecurity measures lead the pack in terms of other jurisdictions.
“It’s been business as usual but then with this extra change that is required because of FMD being on the island of Bali.”
Agriculture Victoria was experienced and well equipped to handle biosecurity threats, Ms Tierney said.
“They did it recently in terms of the avian flu and Japanese encephalitis — there are so many biosecurity threats with us all the time,” she said.
“I think they have a proven track record of doing a pretty good job and the way they have ramped up preparedness for FMD — they should be congratulated for it.”
Biosecurity Tasmania officials have given up trying to contain the plant fungus blueberry rust — saying “the benefits of containment no longer outweigh the burdens.”
Key points:
The fungal disease causes extensive defoliation and can kill plants with severe infections
Tasmania has been battling unsuccessfully to keep it at bay
Listing it as endemic means restrictions on infected properties will be removed and farmers will have to live with, and manage it
The fungus which first arrived on the island state in 2014 can cause extensive defoliation on blueberry plants and sometimes plant deaths.
Biosecurity Tasmania said it was proving impossible to stop the spread of the fungus, which travels via airborne spores, contaminated clothing or equipment.
“The containment approach that we’ve been undertaking for the past few years clearly isn’t working anymore,” said chief plant protection officer Andrew Bishop.
“It’s worked very well for the first few years, and it was always intended to try and slow the spread to enable producers to adjust to management, but last season we saw a larger number of infections incurring.”
Blueberry rust was first detected in Tasmania in 2014.(Department of Primary Industries Victoria)
Organic farmers expecting price drop
Tasmania’s organic blueberry growers are devastated.
They will now be locked out of their lucrative South Australian market which requires produce to be from rust-free plants.
Organic blueberry farmer Kent Mainwaring is one of those that will lose a market that gave them a premium price.
“It would make our operation here marginal we do rely on getting the peak in the market, if we lost our organic status that would put us on the other side of the ledger,” Mr Mainwaring said.
Kent Mainwaring says he will lose a lucrative market in South Australia.(ABC News: Tim Morgan)
It will also see organic blueberries hit other markets, alongside the conventionally farmed products.
“The South Australian market has traditionally been a very strong market for us … any increase in supply to the markets in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane will decrease prices I believe,” Mr Mainwaring said.
The price drop could be dramatic depending on how many surplus blueberries those markets can absorb.
“We can always hope the consumption of blueberries will increase year on year as it’s been doing,” Mr Mainwaring said.
‘They’ve fought hard’
Researchers are investigating sprays for organic blueberries but a product is still some time away. (ABC News: Clint Jasper)
Fruit Growers Tasmania’s chief executive officer Peter Cornish said those farms infected with blueberry rust were under strict conditions that were affecting their business and it was time to admit defeat.
“All credit to Biosecurity Tasmania and our growers, they’ve fought hard, they’ve fought hard in this battle to try and stop the spread of it,” he said.
“This last year we’ve had very conductive [conditions] for the spread of blueberry rust.”
Since arriving eight years ago, hundreds of plants have been destroyed and tens of thousands of dollars spent as part of an eradication plan, Biosecurity Tasmania.
It was declared a success by mid June 2016 but a second outbreak was detected just a couple of months later and a containment approach was taken instead.
The Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture has been researching and evaluating sprays for use by organic growers.
While that research is coming to an end and has promising results, it’s expected to take some time before a product is ready for market.
