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Republicans leading midterm race for House: CBS poll

New CBS News Battleground Tracker polling shows Republicans in the lead for control of the House ahead of this year’s midterm elections, with 230 seats projected for the GOP and 205 for Democrats.

GOP wins in 230 districts would give Republicans 12 seats more than the 218 needed to control the chamber.

Democrats currently claim a slim majority of 220 seats to Republicans’ 211.

The poll’s margin of error for the parties’ projections is 12 seats.

The survey also found that Democrats are disenchanted with current affairs and less likely to show up to vote than their Republican counterparts.

Sixteen percent of Democrats and 43 percent of Republicans, meanwhile, said that they feel that congressional Democrats have not delivered on promises made in their last campaign cycle.

Sixty-seven percent of Democratic voters say congressional Democrats have delivered on “some” of those promises, and 17 percent believe they’ve delivered on “most or all.”

Sixty-eight percent of Republicans and a mere 7 percent of Democrats feel that congressional Republicans are fighting for them on the Hill.

Just half of surveyed voters felt enthusiastic about turning out for the vote in November.

And more Democrats reported being spurred to vote by former President Trump than by their own party leader.

Just 39 percent of Democrats say their midterm congressional vote is “a lot” about President Biden, compared to 62 percent of Republicans. By comparison, 46 percent of Democrats say their midterm vote is “a lot” about Trump, as did 47 percent of Republicans.

Conducted July 27-29, the tracker surveyed 1,743 registered voters weighted for gender, age, race, education and 2020 presidential vote. The margin of error is 3 points.

— Updated at 12:56 pm

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Feds–NBC New York

Federal authorities are investigating whether a man arrested with a loaded assault rifle outside the Brooklyn home of an outspoken Iranian dissident was part of a plot to target or kill her, two law enforcement officials said.

Police arrested a Yonkers man — Khalid Mehdiyev — on Thursday with an AK-47-style weapon and 66 rounds of ammunition near the home of Masih Alinejad.

Alinejad is a well-known Iranian writer and dissident who last year was the alleged target of a kidnapping plot by Iranian agents, the FBI said. Iran has denied wrongdoing, calling the past kidnapping allegations “baseless.”

The FBI and NYPD are now looking into why Mehdiyev, 23, was seen near her home last week. Investigators said he had been seen walking around Ella’s Alinejad’s property several days last week, and at least once attempted to one her front door. She was not home at the time.

Suspect in possible assassination plot of Iranian dissident identified by senior law enforcement officials in doorbell camera footage.

Suspect in possible assassination plot of Iranian dissident identified by senior law enforcement officials in doorbell camera footage.

“Shocked to learn that an assassin with a loaded AK47 came my home in Brooklyn,” she tweeted Sunday. “Last year, the Islamic Republic, tried to kidnap me, now they want to kill me. I’m grateful to federal agents but the Administration must do more to protect US citizens.”

According to a complaint filed late Friday by federal prosecutors in the Southern District of New York, Mehdiyev allegedly admitted the assault weapon was his and then asked for a lawyer, after first claiming he had traveled from Yonkers to Brooklyn in search of an apartment.

The Subaru used by Mehdiyev had Illinois plates, and had been issued a parking ticket near the Brooklyn residence the week before, court documents said.

Mehdiyev was pulled over around 3 pm by the NYPD at the corner of Dorchester Road and Rugby Road after going through a stop sign, an NYPD spokesman said.

He was allegedly driving with a suspended license and police said they later found a loaded AK-47 in the back seat. Prosecutors said serial numbers on the weapon had been defaced.

Mehdiyev is charged with a federal weapons count. The FBI and NYPD are looking into whether he was surveilling Alinejad’s home and whether he was acting alone.

An Iranian intelligence officer and three members of an Iranian intelligence network have been charged in Manhattan with plotting to lure a US resident and human rights activist from New York City to Iran. NBC New York’s Jonathan Dienst reports.

In July 2021, the FBI said it had uncovered an Iranian kidnapping plot to target Alinejad – allegedly to take her from her home, transport her to South America and then fly her back to Iran. Alinajed was moved to safe houses during the investigation for her protection of her, officials said at the time.

Alinejad has a huge following on social media given her outspoken criticism of the Iranian regime – especially on the issue of women’s rights.

An FBI spokeswoman confirmed Mehdiyev’s arrest but referred questions to an SDNY spokesman, who late Saturday offered no additional comment beyond the details included in the criminal complaint.

Attempts to reach Mehdiyev’s attorney were not immediately successful.

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McKinney Fire: In just 3 days, the Northern California fire has exploded to become the state’s largest blaze this year

The blaze, dubbed the McKinney Fire, broke out Friday afternoon in the Klamath National Forest near the California-Oregon border and has since ripped through more than 52,000 acres, advancing on homes and forcing nearly 2,000 residents to evacuate Saturday, authorities said.

Heavy smoke over the fire helped slow its growth Sunday, but also kept firefighting aircraft grounded, the US Forest Service said in a Sunday night update.

As the weekend ended, the blaze was 0% contained and firefighters face a long battle ahead as lightning and thunderstorms complicated efforts while the flames raced through dry vegetation.

Oregon state Rep. Dacia Grayber was camping with her husband, both firefighters, near the California state line when they woke up to orange skies, hot wind gusts, lightning and blowing ash, she said on Twitter. They evacuated from the campground knowing one of them may return on deployment if the fire grows.
“In 22+ yrs of fire I’ve never experienced anything like this fire behavior at night. It felt absolutely surreal and not just a little apocalyptic,” grayber tweeted.
The area remained under a Red Flag Warning as a threat of dry lightning, strong winds, high temperatures and low humidity created dangerous fire conditions through Sunday night. “Abundant lightning” is expected through Monday, as well as scattered thunderstorms that could potentially spread the flames out further, according to the National Weather Service.
“These conditions can be extremely dangerous for firefighters, as winds can be erratic and extremely strong, causing fire to spread in any direction,” forest service officials said in a news release.

The dry thunderstorms that occurred over the weekend happen when rainfall evaporates before ever hitting the ground, leaving only lightning strikes capable of sparking new fires and fueling existing ones, CNN Meteorologist Robert Shackelford said.

The McKinney Fire burns near Yreka, California, Saturday.

At an estimated 52,498 acres, the McKinney Fire has become California’s largest wildfire so far this year, Cal Fire Capt. Chris Bruno told CNN.

And it isn’t the only blaze crews have to contend with. There were 10 different wildfires burning in the Klamath National Forest Sunday afternoon, forest officials said.

The fires generated their own weather in the form of pyrocumulus clouds, which are created from the intense heat of the fire forcing air to rise.
Tor Mason was one of the hundreds evacuated due to the McKinney Fire. He said he and his friends fled their homes and arrived at the Klamath River Community Center, only to find the fire closing in, he told CNN affiliate KDRV.

“When I got to the community center it was almost on fire. I’m like, holy crap, this isn’t good,” Mason said. “So I put the … pedal to the metal and I boogied. … I heard this morning it shot up in flames.”

California’s persistent drought conditions have set the scene for rapid fire spread in the forest, with the fires burning extremely dry, receptive fuels, according to the forest service.

Racing through dry brush, grass and timber, the fire activity has been extreme, with the flames running uphill, and spotting further out, according to fire officials.

“Klamath National Forest is a big and beautiful forest, but it also has some steep and rugged terrain. And with that, coupled with the high temperatures, low humidity, they all come into play and make it a very extreme fire danger situation right now ,” Tom Stokesberry of the US Forest Service told CNN affiliate KTVL.
A horse grazes in a pasture as the McKinney Fire burns in Klamath National Forest, in California Saturday.

A total of 648 firefighting personnel have converged on the blaze, attacking the flames from the ground and the air and working to defend evacuated homes.

Gov. Gavin Newsom proclaimed a state of emergency Saturday for Siskiyou County, saying the blaze has destroyed homes and threatened critical infrastructure. Cal Fire said no information was available on structures damaged by the McKinney Fire, though Stokesberry told KTVL there were unconfirmed reports of lost structures.
On Saturday, about 60 people were evacuated from the Pacific Crest Trail as the McKinney Fire approached, the Jackson County Sheriff’s Office in Oregon said on its Facebook page, noting the hikers were rescued from the “California side of the Red Buttes Wilderness.”
Conditions could get better Monday as the chance of isolated dry thunderstorms shifts to the north, Shackelford said. There is also a chance for up to 2 inches of rain falling over the area, which could aid firefighters battling the McKinney Fire.

CNN’s Paradise Afshar, Tina Burnside, Amanda Jackson, Robert Shackelford and Claire Colbert contributed to this report.

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Drone explosion hits headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet

Kyiv, Ukraine — A small explosive device carried by a makeshift drone blew up Sunday at the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet on the Crimean Peninsula, wounding six people and prompting the cancellation of ceremonies there honoring Russia’s navy, authorities said.

Meanwhile, one of Ukraine’s richest men, a grain merchant, was killed in what Ukrainian authorities said was a carefully targeted Russian missile strike on his home.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the drone explosion in a courtyard at the naval headquarters in the city of Sevastopol. But the seemingly improvised, small-scale nature of the attack raised the possibility that it was the work of Ukrainian insurgents trying to drive out Russian forces.

A Russian lawmaker from Crimea, Olga Kovitidi, told Russian state news agency RIA-Novosti that the drone was launched from Sevastopol itself. She said the incident was being treated as a terrorist act, the news agency said.

Crimean authorities raised the terrorism threat level for the region to “yellow,” the second-highest tier.

Sevastopol, which was seized along with the rest of Crimea from Ukraine by Russia in 2014, is about 170 kilometers (100 miles) south of the Ukrainian mainland. Russian forces control much of the mainland along the Black Sea.

The Black Sea Fleet’s press service said the drone appeared to be homemade. It describes the explosive device as “low-power.” Sevastopol Major Mikhail Razvozhaev said six people were wounded. Observances of Russia’s Navy Day holiday were canceled in the city.

CRIMEA-UKRAINE-RUSSIA-CONFLICT-WAR
Russian Navy members patrol in front of the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol in Crimea on July 31, 2022.

STRINGER/AFP via Getty Images


Ukraine’s navy and an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the reported drone attack underlined the weakness of Russian air defenses.

“Did the occupiers admit the helplessness of their air defense system? Or their helplessness in front of the Crimean partisans?” Oleksiy Arestovich said on Telegram.

If such an attack is possible by Ukraine, he said, “the destruction of the Crimean bridge in such situations no longer sounds unrealistic” — a reference to the span that Russia built to connect its mainland to Crimea after the annexation.

Elsewhere in Ukraine, the mayor of the major port city of Mykolaiv, Vitaliy Kim, said shelling killed one of Ukraine’s wealthiest men, Oleksiy Vadatursky, and his wife, Raisa. Vadatursky headed a grain production and export business.

Another presidential adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, said Vadatursky was specifically targeted.

It “was not an accident, but a well-thought-out and organized premeditated murder. Vadatursky was one of the largest farmers in the country, a key person in the region and a major employer. That the exact hit of a rocket was not just in a house, but in a specific wing, the bedroom, leaves no doubt about aiming and adjusting the strike,” he said.

Vadatursky’s agribusiness, Nibulon, includes a fleet of ships for sending grain abroad.

In the Sumy region in Ukraine’s north, near the Russian border, shelling killed one person, the regional administration said. And three people died in attacks over the past day in the Donetsk region, which is partly under the control of Russian-backed separatist forces, said regional Gov. Pavlo Kyrylenko.

Podolyak said on Twitter that images of the prison where at least 53 Ukrainian prisoners of war were killed in an explosion on Friday indicated that the blast came from within the building in Olenivka, which is under Russian control.

Russian officials have claimed the building was attacked by Ukraine with the aim of silencing POWs who might be giving information about Ukrainian military operations. Ukraine has blamed Russia for the explosion.

Satellite photos taken before and after show that a small, squarish building in the middle of the prison complex was demolished, its roof in splinters.

Podolyak said those images and the lack of damage to adjacent structures showed that the building was not attacked from the air or by artillery. He contended the evidence was consistent with a thermobaric bomb, a powerful device sometimes called a vacuum bomb, being set off inside.

The International Red Cross asked to immediately visit the prison to make sure the scores of wounded POWs had proper treatment, but said Sunday that its request had yet to be granted. It said that denying the Red Cross access would violate the Geneva Convention on the rights of POWs.

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The rate at which Biden has driven the US economy into the ground is ‘genuinely astounding:’ Steve Hilton

NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

“‘The Next Revolution” host Steve Hilton blamed President Biden on Sunday for turning a strong US economy into a ‘weak, stagnant’ one, calling the rate at which the country has entered a technical recession “genuinely astounding” – considering the state of the economy under former President Trump.

US ECONOMY ENTERS TECHNICAL RECESSION AFTER GROWTH TUMBLES 0.9% IN THE SECOND QUARTER

STEVE HILTON: Just out of interest, I went back and read Biden’s inaugural address again, and I noticed something amazing. Not the endless disingenuous policies about unity, but the fact he barely even talks about the economy. He it’s hardly mentioned and now we know why. Because Biden’s current economic plan now coming into full horrific view was this: how quickly and how comprehensively can we take a strong growing economy and turn it into a weak, shrinking, stagnant one? And the answer is, pretty damn quickly.

Revised GDP numbers show the economy shrank at an even faster rate than previously reported during the first quarter, and now it is down again. So that does mean we’re in a recession. The rate at which this Biden regime has driven our economy into the ground is actually genuinely astounding.

It was only just a few years ago with Trump that we had the best economy for half a century. Blue collar boom, the lowest unemployment levels we’ve ever seen, especially for women, Black people and Latinos. But now look, we went from becoming a net energy exporter to waging a self-defeating war on energy… we went from affordable gas prices to the highest average cost per gallon on record, from pro-growth to anti-growth, pro-America to anti-America. This is Biden’s mad agenda and this is Biden’s avoidable recession.

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All-clear given after suspicious package forces evacuations of ticket counters in Terminal 3 at LAX

Traffic was backed up at LAX and Terminal 3 was largely shut down after a suspicious package was found Sunday night.

The package was reported at about 10 pm, and passengers and employees have been removed from the ticketing area of ​​Terminal 3, an LAX spokesperson said.

By about 11:45 pm, the airport was given the all-clear.

“Police have determined it is safe to open Terminal 3 and traffic will begin moving on the upper level shortly. Thank you for your patience as safety is our first priority,” LAX said on Twitter.

During the investigation, the airport urged travelers to allow for delays.

“Traffic coming into the airport is slow and backed up due to the police activity on the upper level. Please allow extra time to get to the airport,” LAX said on Twitter.

The airport also suggested “using the lower level during this time if dropping off or picking up.”

“Traffic coming into the airport on the upper level is being diverted near Terminal 1 so please use the lower level for much faster access. Traffic is very heavy along major access routes so please allow extra time to reach the terminal area,” the airport added.

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Kentucky Flooding: Officials call for critical recovery supplies as dozens are found dead in flooding and death toll is expected to rise



CNN

As the death toll in flood-stricken areas of Kentucky continues to rise, rescue workers and officials are focused on recovering missing people in several counties and coordinating vital aid for thousands of displaced residents.

At least 28 people, including four children, have died due to severe flooding that struck parts of Kentucky last week, Gov. Andy Beshear announced Sunday. The governor told NBC’s “Meet the Press” that he believes recovery crews are “going to be finding bodies for weeks, many of them swept hundreds of yards, maybe a quarter-mile plus from where they were last.”

While reading a breakdown of those killed in each county during a news conference Sunday, Beshear became visibly emotional when he reached the four children dead in Knott County, where 15 people have been found dead.

“It says ‘minor,’” the governor said looking at the list. “They are children. The oldest one is in second grade,” Beshear said.

The flooding – which swelled onto roads, destroyed bridges and swept away entire homes – displaced thousands of Kentuckians, according to the governor. It also knocked out vital power, water and roadway infrastructure, some of which has yet to be restored.

There was risk of flash flooding Sunday night into Monday morning, according to the National Weather Service. A slight chance of excessive rainfall is possible throughout the affected region on Monday and Tuesday. Conditions are expected to begin improving Monday, but the region could receive two-day totals of up to two inches of rain. Some areas could see more.

In Perry County, as many as 50 bridges are damaged and inaccessible, according to county Judge Executive Scott Alexander.

Debris surrounds a badly damaged home near Jackson, Kentucky, on July 31, 2022.

“What that means is there’s somebody living on the other side or multiple families living up our holler on the other side that we’re still not able to have road access to,” Alexander said.

Kentucky State Police are still actively searching for missing residents in several counties and ask that families inform law enforcement if their loved one is missing.

Search and recovery efforts could face yet another obstacle as temperatures are expected to soar Tuesday and through the rest of the week, placing crews, volunteers, displaced people and the area’s homeless population under pressing heat.

As the climate crisis fuels more extreme and frequent weather events, several areas of the US are currently experiencing flash flood risk, including swathes of the desert Southwest, Knoxville, Tennessee, and Tucson, Arizona.

State officials are immediately focused on getting food, water and shelter to the people who were forced to flee their homes.

Power outages and storm damage left 22 water systems operating in a limited capacity, a Sunday news release from the governor’s office said. More than 60,000 water service connections are either without water or under a boil advisory, it said.

Nearly 10,000 customers in the eastern region of the state were still without power as of early Monday, according to PowerOutage.us.

Officials overseeing the recovery efforts say bottled water, cleaning supplies and relief fund donations are among the most needed resources as the region works toward short and long term recovery. FEMA is providing tractor trailers full of water to several counties.

Volunteers work at a distribution center of donated goods in Buckhorn, Kentucky.

“A lot of these places have never flooded. So if they’ve never flooded, these people will not have flood insurance,” the mayor of Hazard, Kentucky, Donald Mobelini told CNN Saturday. “If they lose their home, it’s a total loss. There’s not going to be an insurance check coming to help that. We need cash donations,” he said, referring to a relief fund set up by the state.

Beshear established a Team Eastern Kentucky Flood Relief Fund to pay the funeral expenses of flood victims and raise money for those impacted by the damage. As of Sunday morning, the fund had received more than $1 million in donations, according to the governor.

The federal government has approved relief funding for several counties. FEMA is also accepting individual disaster assistance applications from impacted renters and homeowners in Breathitt, Clay, Knott, Letcher and Perry counties, the governor said, noting he thinks more counties will be added to the list as damage assessments continue.

Though the recovery effort was still in the search-and-rescue phase over the weekend, Beshear said in a news conference Saturday that he believes the losses will be “in the tens if not the hundreds of millions of dollars.”

“This is one of the most devastating, deadly floods that we have seen in our history,” Beshear told NBC Sunday. “It wiped out areas where people didn’t have that much to begin with.”

And it wasn’t just personal possessions washed away by the floodwaters. A building housing archival film and other materials in Whitesburg, was impacted, with water submerging an irreplaceable collection of historic film, videotape and audio records that documented Appalachia.

Appalachian filmmaker Mimi Pickering told CNN that the beloved media, arts and education center, Appalshop, held archival footage and film strips dating as far back as the 1940s, holding the stories and voices of the region’s people. Employees and volunteers were racing to preserve as much material as they could.

“We’re working as hard and fast as we can to try to save all that material… The full impact, I don’t think you have totally hit me yet. I think I don’t really want to think about it,” Pickering said. She noted the Smithsonian and other institutions have reached out offering assistance.

The extensive loss Kentuckians are suffering will likely also take a mental toll, Frances Everage, a therapist and 44-year resident of the city of Hazard told CNN. While her home de ella was spared, she said some of her friends de ella have damaged homes or lost their entire farms.

“When you put your blood, sweat and tears into something and then see it ripped away in front of your eyes, there’s going to be a grieving process,” Everage said. “This community will rebuild and we will be okay, but the impact on mental health is going to be significant.”

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Trump Blames Pelosi, DC Mayor Bowser for Jan. 6 Capitol Riot

Former President Donald Trump blamed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Washington, DC Mayor Muriel Bowser for the events that unfolded during last year’s Capitol riot.

“January 6th is her [Bowser] and Nancy’s fault. ‘No, I’m not kidding’ (as Joe Bidden would say!),” Trump said Sunday on his social media platform, Truth Social.

The ex-president’s post included his comments earlier that criticized Bowser for asking the National Guard to help deal with migrants being transported to DC, alleging that she refused to do so during the Capitol riot.

In a July 19 letter sent to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s office and in another letter sent to the White House on July 22, Bowser requested help from the National Guard to handle the influx of migrants that were being bused into the city from Texas and Arizona .

Trump Blames Pelosi, DC Mayor for Jan.6
Former President Donald Trump blamed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Washington, DC Mayor Muriel Bowser on Sunday for the events that unfolded during last year’s Capitol riot. Above, Trump speaks during the America First Agenda Summit on Tuesday in Washington, DC
Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Christopher Rodriguez, director of Washington, DC’s emergency management agency, said in the letter on behalf of the mayor, that the situation has reached “tipping points” as more buses arrived in the last month.

The mayor asked the National Guard “to help prevent a prolonged humanitarian crisis in the nation’s capital” where efforts by nonprofits helping migrants resettle in the country became “unsustainable” as they are “overwhelmed and underfunded.”

The issue began after Republican Governors Doug Ducey of Arizona and Greg Abbott of Texas began shipping migrants from their states to DC after President Joe Biden pledged in April to lift a Trump-era order restricting border crossings to prevent the spread of COVID-19, Rodriguez wrote in the letter. The nation’s capital has since seen more than 4,000 people brought in with nearly 200 buses.

Trump on Friday targeted Bowser in a Truth Social post, saying: “The Mayor of Washington, DC, wants the National Guard to help with the thousands of Illegal Immigrants, coming from the insane Open Border, that are flooding the City, but refused National Guard help when it came to providing Security at the Capitol Building for a far larger crowd on January 6th.

His remarks come after the House select committee investigating the Capitol riot presented evidence last week revealing that Trump took no action for over three hours after his supporters stormed the Capitol just 15 minutes after his “fight like hell” speech in an apparent effort to disrupt the official certification of Biden’s electoral college victory.

Some of Trump’s top allies have come forward with testimonies to the committee including top White House lawyer Pat Cipollone, deputy national security adviser Matt Pottinger, and former deputy press secretary Sarah Matthews, among others. Some of his Cabinet’s officials also reportedly spoke with the committee recently, including former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Newsweek reached out to the offices of Pelosi and Bowser for comment.

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Shooting reported at Bozeman Walmart

UPDATE: 7/31/2022, 10:07 pm – According to a Bozeman Police Department social media post, at approximately 7:50 pm on Sunday, July 31, 2022, officers responded to Walmart after receiving multiple reports of a shooting inside the store.

“Officers eventually located one male victim and took one male suspect into custody. It appears there was an altercation between the two males which led to the shooting. There does not appear to be an ongoing threat to the public. Please avoid the Walmart area as multiple agencies continue to process the scene and interview witnesses.”

UPDATE: 7/31/2022, 10 pm – MTN News has attempted to interview other Walmart employees who are leaving the scene, but they say it’s against company policy to talk to the media.

UPDATE: 7/31/2022, 9:47 pm – Bozeman Police are asking the public to stay away from the area of ​​Walmart on No. 7th and Oak St. The area and store will be closed for several hours as police interview witnesses and employees and try to piece together exactly what happened.

WATCH: Employee describes witnessing shooting at Walmart

BONUS VIDEO: Witness shares experience at Bozeman Walmart Shooting Sunday evening

UPDATE: 7/31/2022, 9:29 pm – A Bozeman Public Information Officer has confirmed one person is critically injured.

PREVIOUS:

BOZEMAN — Bozeman Police and an employee of Walmart have confirmed there was a shooting incident at the Bozeman Walmart on Sunday evening.

According to BPD, one person is at the hospital and MTN News saw one person being taken into custody, shortly after 9 pm

An Incident Command Center has been set up at the old Kmart parking lot, across the street from Walmart.

Please avoid the area at this time.

This is a developing story and will be updated as more information becomes available.

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Republicans’ Chances of Retaking Congress With 100 Days to Midterms: Polls

With 100 days to the midterm elections, Republicans still look well-positioned to retake control of the House and possibly the Senate—although some recent polls also suggest Democrats may be able to hold onto their narrow majorities.

Democrats wrestled back control of the House in the 2018 midterm election under former President Donald Trump. They then managed to regain control of the Senate in the 2020 election and the January 2021 Georgia runoff, although the liberal party also lost a substantial number of seats in the House. Democrats currently control both chambers of Congress with the slimmest of margins—meaning even a handful of losses will be enough to flip control of the legislative branch of government.

Analysts have predicted for months—citing polling data and recent historical precedent—that Democrats are likely to lose control of the House and possibly the Senate when voters go to the polls on November 8. As President Joe Biden remains deeply unpopular, many see this as an indicator that Democrats will perform poorly as well.

us capitol building
Republicans appear to have the advantage to take back the House, and possibly the Senate, ahead of the 2022 midterm election, according to analyst predictions and polling. Above, the US Capitol building is seen in Washington, DC on July 24.
MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images

Which Party Will Win the House?

On Sunday, CBS News released its 2022 Battleground Tracker, showing the GOP likely to pick up a significant number of House seats in the upcoming election. The news channel’s tracker currently shows that Republicans will gain an estimated 16 House seats, bringing their total to 230. Meanwhile, Democrats are predicted to lose those 16 seats, bring their total down to just 205.

News and polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight’s forecast shows Republicans are strongly favored to win back control of the House as well. The forecast gives the GOP an 83 in 100 chance of winning the majority, compared to 17 in 100 for Democrats.

“Even if Democrats were to win all the races currently designated as toss-ups, plus hold on to all the seats they’re favored to win, they would still wind up short of the number they need for a majority,” FiveThirtyEight’s analysis says .

Which Party Will Win the Senate?

Democrats appear to have a better chance of keeping control of the Senate, and possibly even expanding their majority. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast currently assesses that the party is “slightly favored” to maintain control of the upper chamber of Congress.

The site’s current prediction gives Democrats a 56 in 100 chance of winning the majority in the Senate, while Republicans have just a 44 in 100 chance. “The Senate race is close, and in a few key races, Republicans have selected weak candidates, hurting their chances of taking the chamber in November,” the analysis says.

What Do Recent Polls Show?

Recent generic congressional polling data is mixed, with some suggesting Democrats are favored by more voters, while many others show the GOP ahead. The margins vary significantly as well. The current Real Clear Politics average of recent national generic congressional ballot surveys shows Republicans with less than a 1-point advantage.

A poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports from July 24 to 28 shows Republicans with a 5-point advantage, however. That survey had the GOP at 46 percent and Democrats at only 41 percent. It included 2,500 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percent.

Another recent poll conducted by USAToday/Suffolk University from July 22 to 25 showed Democrats 4-points ahead. That survey had Democrats backed by 44 percent of registered voters compared to 40 percent who supported Republicans. Notably, the same poll carried out in mid-June showed Democrats and Republicans tied at 40 percent—meaning Democrats have gained 4 points.

The survey included 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent.

Survey results from The Economist/YouGov from July 23 to 26 had Democrats 6-points ahead of Republicans. That poll showed the liberal party with 44 percent of support compared to 38 percent backing the conservative party. Again, that marked a shift in favor of Democrats. Earlier this month, the results were 43 percent for Democrats and 40 percent for Republicans, meaning Democrats gained 3 points.

The poll included 1,311 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 points.

It’s important to point out that generic congressional ballot polls are an imprecise way to gauge which party is more likely to win in November. Each House race is decided in an individual district with its own particular dynamics, while race Senates are decided state-by-state. The national sentiments captured in these polls do, however, suggest that the country is fairly evenly split between the two dominant parties.

What About Historical Precedent?

The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics last June published an analysis of midterm elections going back to 1946. The report showed that the political party of a president serving in the White House, on average, loses more than 26 House seats during the midterm of their first term. The largest loss has been 64 seats, and the largest gain has been just eight seats.

That analysis showed correlated results in the Senate. The president’s party on average lost more than three seats in the Senate during the midterms. The biggest loss was 13 seats, and the largest gain was only four seats.