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Tim Michels refuses to back Trump bid in 2024 despite endorsement

Republican candidates for governor, left to right: Tim Ramthun, Rebecca Kleefisch, Tim Michels

MADISON – Four days before former President Donald Trump is scheduled to host a rally in Wisconsin for Tim Michels, Trump’s endorsed candidate for governor would not commit to supporting Trump for president in 2024.

Michels and his top two opponents in the Republican primary for governor on Monday distanced themselves from Trump during a town hall candidate forum in Milwaukee in their final meeting before voters decide which candidate will compete against Democratic incumbent Gov. Tony Evers in November.

Former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch and state Rep. Tim Ramthun joined Michels in declining to say they would back Trump for president in two years when asked by a Republican voter whether to support another run for president in light of his actions by him during the attack on the US Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

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Trump sparks confusion after endorsing ‘ERIC’ in Missouri GOP race

Two Erics are top contenders in Tuesday’s GOP primary for an open US Senate seat in Missouri.

But it wasn’t clear who former President Donald Trump backed even after he issued an endorsement in the race where Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt and former Governor Eric Greitens are both running.

On the eve of the election, Trump said in a statement he was “proud to announce that ERIC has my Complete and Total Endorsement!”

“There is a BIG Election in the Great State of Missouri, and we must send a MAGA Champion and True Warrior to the US Senate, someone who will fight for Border Security, Election Integrity, our Military and Great Veterans, together with having powerful toughness on Crime and the Border,” Trump stated.

“We need a person who will not go back down to the Radical Left Lunatics who are destroying our Country.

“I trust the Great People of Missouri, on this one, to make up their own minds, much as they did when gave me landside victories in the 2016 and 2020 Elections, and I am therefore proud to announce that ERIC has my Complete and Total Endorsement!”

Both candidates were quick to claim and tout Trump’s support.

Schmitt, in a tweet, wrote, “I’m grateful for President Trump’s endorsement. As the only America First candidate who has actually fought for election integrity, border security & against the Left’s indoctrination of our kids – I’ll take that fight to the Senate to SAVE AMERICA!”

FILE - In this Aug. 6, 2020 file photo, Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt speaks during a news conference in St. Louis.  Schmitt announced Wednesday, March 24, 2021, that he's making a bid for retiring US Sen.  Roy Blunt's seat
Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt was quick to claim Trump’s support after the former president’s confusing statement was released.
AP Photo/Jeff Roberson, File

Greitens also wrote he was “honored to receive President Trump’s endorsement.”

“From the beginning, I’ve been the true MAGA Champion fighting against the RINO establishment backing Schmitt,” I have tweeted.

He also bragged about being backed by Donald Trump Jr. and his girlfriend, media personality Kimberly Guilfoyle, in a separate tweet.

Greitens also claimed he “just had a GREAT phone call with President Trump” and thanked him for the support.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Eric Greitens during the first general election debate in the race for Missouri governor at the Missouri Press Association convention Friday, Sept.  30, 2016, in Branson, Mo.
Former Governor Eric Greitens also interpreted Trump’s statement as a sure endorsement of him.
AP Photo/Jeff Robersob

Schmitt hit back by reposting a tweet from conservative media personality Dan Bongino commenting on Greitens’ claim.

“Bulls—t. Read the endorsement. This dude is a FRAUD,” Bongino said in reference to Greitens.

Schmitt and Greitens are both vying to replace outgoing Sen. Roy Blunt. Schmitt is the favorite with an Emerson College poll last week showing him with about 33% of the predicted vote. After that, Rep. Vicky Hartzler had 21% and Greitens was in third with 16%.

Many national Republicans want Greitens to lose because of past scandals he was involved in, including charges of domestic abuse by his ex-wife.

While there’s a third candidate named Eric — Eric McElroy — also running, he is a long shot contender.

Still, Hartzler threw congratulations his way Monday.

“Congratulations to Eric McElroy. He’s having a big night,” she said in statement, according to CBS News.

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Larry Kudlow: Schumer reconciliation bill would stop the surge of business investment

Save America. Kill the bill. The bill, of course, is the Schumer-Manchin reconciliation bill. Killing it will not be easy, but we will continue to put our best foot forward on policy grounds.

The more we learn about this bill, the less everybody seems to like it. The “Inflation Reduction Act” doesn’t seem to have much inflation reduction in it, according to the Penn-Wharton budget model.

It’s not a supply-side model, but its results suggest that the impact on inflation is statistically indistinguishable from zero. Let me just say, there’s never any automatic link between budget deficits and inflation anyway. So, I never bought that argument to begin with.

The principle cause of inflation is overly easy money and in this current cycle, overly excessive federal spending contributed as well, but one of the economy killers besides sky-rocketing inflation is Biden’s woke regulatory strangling of the economy starting with fossil fuels, but continuing through virtually all business and industry.

BRITISH BUSINESSES CUTTING TIES WITH CHINA OVER INCREASING POLITICAL TENSIONS

President Biden speech

President Joe Biden addresses the 76th Session of the UN General Assembly on September 21, 2021 in New York City. (Photo by Timothy A. Clary-Pool/Getty Images/Getty Images)

Biden slapped on $200 billion worth of regulatory costs in his first year alone. That’s more important than a bunch of phony accounting gimmicks designed to bring down the budget deficit for a couple of years.

If you take a look at reconciliation, there’s a $739 billion tax hike and $433 billion in spending, but the Obamacare spending is only scored for three years. Over 10 years it will be over $200 billion, so that wipes out about $150 billion in so-called deficit reduction and the idea that we’re going to give the IRS another $80 billion that will generate another $124 billion in tax revenues, that game is tried again and again, and it fails again and again, and it’s just more phony baloney.

Also, energy loans and loan guarantees are scored as interest-yielding assets generating a lot of money. Good luck with that. Remember Solyndra? Or how those student loans worked out? But the biggest whopper is that the deficit reduction crowd kind of forgot to add in the $280 billion CHIPS+ bill that had no pay-fors.

I’m sure it’s just an oversight, but suddenly when you tally last week’s congressional actions, there’s almost $900 billion in spending against $740 billion in revenues, which sounds like a deficit to me.

Please feel free to check my math, but more important is this whole idea that 100% spending of business investment is a tax loophole. It’s not. The reason taxable income is lower than book income for corporations is you get to deduct by law, by intention, in the 2017 Trump tax cuts, to allow immediate bonus deductions for new plants, equipment, technology, etc.

This was done to make America more competitive, to increase productivity and real wages and typical family incomes on purpose, along with the tax rate reduction from 35% to 21%.

DEMOCRATS DOWNPLAY NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS SHOWING INFLATION BILL INCREASES TAXES

Those were the twin pillars of the supply-side business tax cut and it worked. Median income soared. Unemployment crashed. Poverty fell. Inequality fell and there was no inflation and abstracting from the pandemic shutdown, it paid for itself as the Laffer curve kicked in.

The Schumer reconciliation bill would stop the surge of business investment. Big mistake! And, because 70% of the corporate tax burden is borne by blue-collar working folks, putting in a 15% alternative minimum tax on book income is going to lead to across-the-board tax increases.

According to the Joint Committee on Taxation, which is no friend of supply-siders, 50% of the burden of the minimum tax would hit manufacturers. By the way, today’s ISM report for manufacturing fell to its lowest level since June 2020, but then, to varying degrees, every other industry will shoulder tax hikes, including a 7.2% tax hike on coal, and a $25 billion tax hike on oil , and for that matter fossil fuels in general and—get this—there’s a carveout for Green New Deal tax credits. There’s a shock!

There’s also a carveout for a refundable tax credit on semiconductors, although the chip industry will be hit hard by the 15% minimum corporate tax. What the one hand giveth, the other hand taketh away.

Some other tidbits, again from the Joint Committee on Taxation: People earning under $10,000 a year will be hit the hardest with a 3.1% tax hike. Folks between $20,000 and $30,000 will have a 1.1% tax hike. People under $100k will get a $6 billion tax hike. People making less than $200ka year will have a $17 billion tax hike.

So pretty much everybody gets a tax hike. What a joy! Just like Christmas in August. Terrific stuff.

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Here’s a multiple-choice question: Will this tax hike make the economy A) growthier, or B) more recessionary? If you answered B, you win the lottery. Next question: Will roughly $900 billion in additional spending generate: A) higher inflation, or B) lower inflation? If you answered B, you also win the lottery.

But on an after-tax, after-inflation basis, lotteries are not worth what they used to. For heaven’s sakes, save America, kill the bill.

This article is adapted from Larry Kudlow’s opening commentary on the August 1, 2022, edition of “Kudlow.”

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Supreme Court certifies ruling ending Trump border policy

SAN DIEGO (AP) — The Supreme Court on Monday certified its month-old ruling allowing the Biden administration to end a cornerstone Trump-era border policy to make asylum-seekers wait in Mexico for hearings in US immigration court, a pro forma act that has drawn attention amid near-total silence from the White House about when, how and even whether it will dismantle the policy.

The two-word docket entry read “judgment issued” to record that justices voted 5-4 in a ruling issued June 30 that the administration could scrap the “Remain in Mexico” policy, overruling a lower court that forced the policy to be reinstated in December.

Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said shortly after the Supreme Court victory that justices would need to communicate the decision to a lower court, which, in turn, should lift the order to keep the policy in place in a lawsuit filed by the state of Texas. Beyond that, administration officials have said little, including whether any of the thousands subject to the policy since December will be allowed to enter and remain in the United States while their cases are being considered in immigration court.

The White House and Homeland Security Department had no immediate comment on the Supreme Court certification; the Justice Department declined comment. Officials in Mexico had no immediate comment.

About 70,000 migrants were subject to the policy, known officially as “Migrant Protection Protocols,” or MPP, from when former President Donald Trump introduced it in January 2019 until President Joe Biden suspended it on his first day in office in January 2021, fulfilling a campaignpromise. Many were allowed to return to the United States to pursue their cases during the early months of Biden’s presidency.

Nearly 5,800 people have been subject to the policy from December through June, according to figures released Friday, a modest number that would make any reluctance to end it seems less plausible. Nicaraguans account for the largest number, with others from Cuba, Colombia and Venezuela.

A sign posted last week at the entrance to the Salvation Army migrant shelter in Tijuana, Mexico, by the United Nations’ International Organization for Migration appeared to best capture the public understanding of the policy’s status: “Wait for official information! The Remain in Mexico (MPP) program remains in effect. The United States government will inform you of any changes.”

Critics of the policy have been increasingly outspoken about the Biden administration’s reticence on “Remain in Mexico,” and Monday’s certification renewed their calls for an immediate end to the policy.

“It’s a zombie policy,” said Karen Tumlin, founder of the Justice Action Center, an immigration litigation organization.

The final move may rest with US District Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk in Amarillo, Texas, a Trump appointee whose ruling last year brought “Remain in Mexico” back.

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Democrats’ Climate Deal Isn’t Done Yet. Here Are the Remaining Hurdles.

“We have a good, balanced piece of legislation. It’s taken me eight months to get here,” Mr. Manchin said. “The process is what it is. You respect the process, and we’ll see what happens.”

In a notice reviewed by The New York Times, Democratic floor staff offered some advance advice for senators and their aides as they looked toward the marathon voting session. “Please be patient, stay hydrated, wear comfortable shoes, bring snacks for your hideaway, a blanket for your lap as it usually gets cold in the chamber at night and anything else to make you comfortable as we hunker down and get to work,” it said.

Unlike the House, the Senate does not have proxy voting that enables lawmakers to vote remotely. The even partisan split in the chamber means that, if all Republicans were present, all 50 senators who caucused with Democrats would also have to be present to muster enough votes for the measure, which would still need the tiebreaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris to pass.

A recent uptick in coronavirus cases in Congress could imperil those plans.

Senator Richard J. Durbin of Illinois, the No. 2 Democrat, remained in quarantine on Monday after testing positive last week, but he was expected to return before the end of the week. One Republican, Senator John Cornyn of Texas, said on Monday that he had tested positive for the coronavirus, but said of a vote on the reconciliation bill, “If it happens, I will be there, consistent with CDC guidelines.”

Assuming the legislation clears the Senate, the House will need to return to Washington to approve the measure. While lawmakers remain scattered across the country for a scheduled summer recess, Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California and Democratic leaders have said they will call the chamber back into session — with 24 hours’ notice — to vote on the plan.

With just a few votes to spare in the House, Democrats will have to remain united behind the plan to push it through over Republican opposition. Some progressives have expressed frustration about the scaled-down scope of the package and fossil fuel provisions included at the insistence of Mr. Manchin. But many of them have praised the ambitious climate initiatives as worthy of support.

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6 shot, 1 dead in Northeast shooting that has ‘angered’ DC’s chief

“The residents didn’t deserve this. They do not deserve to have people shot in the communities where they live,” DC police chief Robert Contee said, adding that despite recent efforts to “stem the tide of violence,” there are people who have “just lost their sense of humanity.”

Six men have been shot and one is dead following a shooting in Northeast DC on Monday night, according to DC police.

The other victims have been taken to the hospital for treatment.



DC police Chief Robert Contee said during a news briefing Monday night that there is not a lookout at this time, and police are asking anyone with information about the shooting to call them at 202-727-9099.

The circumstances of the shooting, including whether the victims even knew each other, are being investigated, Contee said.

DC police described what happened on the Azeeze Bates property on the 1500 block of F Street as a “critical incident alert.”

Members of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives’ Washington Field Division were on the scene to help police.

Below is the area where it happened.

It’s the latest in a string of shootings that has happened in the District over the last several days.

Contee said that he’s “angered” and “saddened” that DC residents had to experience the shooting in their community.

“The residents didn’t deserve this. They do not deserve to have people shot in the communities where they live,” Contee said, adding that despite recent efforts to “stem the tide of violence,” there are people who have “just lost their sense of humanity.”

On Saturday during a news conference after a drive-by shooting in which two people were hurt and one person was shot and killed by police, DC police Executive Assistant Chief Ashan Benedict described the last few days as “rough.”

There’s been an increase in violent crime in DC, with homicides up 12% compared to the same time period last year.

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Trump’s choice in Michigan gubernatorial primary faces criticism that she isn’t ‘MAGA’ enough

Just days before the Tuesday primary, Trump threw his support behind Tudor Dixon, a conservative commentator who has coalesced support from prominent Republicans in the state, even as she beats back criticism that she’s an establishment candidate who isn’t “MAGA” enough to inspire the GOP base.

The Mitten State’s prolonged, often bitter, Republican primary saw a handful of candidates disqualified from the ballot, while another — still in the race — was arrested for his alleged participation in the January 6, 2021, riot. Dixon is up against a handful of Trumpian candidates, some of whom have fully embraced the former President’s lies about the 2020 election.
Dixon’s embrace of those falsehoods has been more tepid. In a May debate, she raised her hand and confirmed, yes, she did believe Trump won Michigan — a state he lost by more than 154,000 votes in 2020. But in an interview with CNN, she offered a more muted response.

“I’ve talked about this at length, about the 2020 election,” Dixon said. “It was unlike any election we had ever seen obviously because of the pandemic. But in Michigan, there were some things that happened in Michigan that didn’t happen in other states, which are very concerning.”

In interviews with CNN, Dixon’s opponents quickly slammed her for appearing to water down her views on the 2020 election.

Garrett Soldano, a chiropractor vying for the GOP nomination, panned Dixon for dodging the 2020 election question and doubled down on his support for the former President.

“The election, in my humble opinion, was stolen,” he said in an interview. “I’m not even endorsed by President Trump, and I still have his back from him.”

Soldano then turned his stare straight down the lens of a CNN camera, seemingly hoping to address Trump directly.

“Even though, sir, you didn’t endorse me, you’re still my President,” Soldano said.

Businessman-turned-candidate Kevin Rinke also bashed Dixon for dancing around election falsehoods.

“She got an endorsement and within 48 hours when she was asked on national TV if the election was stolen, she changed her mind,” Rinke said. “That’s what politicians do. Tudor Dixon is the Republican version of Gretchen Whitmer — ‘I’ll say anything, I’ll do anything for position and power,'” he said referring to the state’s Democratic governor.

Rinke didn’t go so far as to claim the election was stolen and acknowledged that Joe Biden is the President. Still, he said he believes there were “irregularities” in 2020.

Meantime, Ryan Kelley, a real estate broker in the race, has essentially turned his arrest for allegedly participating in the Capitol riot into a campaign rallying cry.

“Look how hard these people are trying to silence me,” Kelley said in a July GOP primary debate. “I got arrested. I got kicked off Airbnb.”

He has pleaded not guilty to the misdemeanor charges he faces and has continued to falsely claim Trump won in 2020.

Republican activists here have rallied behind Trump-loving, election-denying candidates. At an endorsement convention earlier this year, Republicans backed Kristina Karamo for secretary of state and Matthew DePerno for attorney general, paving their path for official nominations later this year. If they win in November, they would be in key positions to oversee the state’s elections.

But the prospect of having Dixon atop the ticket has rankled some Trump supporters, particularly when it comes to her less-than-enthusiastic embrace of the election falsehoods fueling the base.

“I think she’s given lip service to President Trump and his supporters on those issues but only when truly pushed,” GOP political strategist John Yob said in an interview.

“President Trump is still very popular with conservative voters, so I think that his endorsement will definitely have an impact on this race,” Yob said. “However, it also puts things in a bit of a precarious situation with some of his supporters of him being left dazed and confused because they’ve been behind other, maybe more MAGA-centric, candidates and now all of a sudden he’s endorsed the establishment.”

The former President’s team doesn’t share the concern that Dixon may not be as vocal on election issues, said a person close to Trump.

Dixon has largely shrugged off the criticism.

“I think that’s interesting,” she said of the election-related barbs from her GOP opponents, “because my Democrat opponents actually have a whole thing — a whole list of reasons they hate me because of the election, right? I guess it’s just a campaign tactic.”

Dixon said she believed she could get a boost from the Trump endorsement but declined to say whether she would back him if he runs again for president in 2024, insisting that she is focused on 2022.

“I feel honored to get the endorsement. It feels like we’re really bringing everybody in the Republican Party together,” she said. “So, we feel really good about how Tuesday is going to end up, but we’re still fighting.”

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Democrat Sinema’s views on economic bill remain shrouded

WASHINGTON (AP) — Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s views remained a mystery Monday as party leaders eyed votes later this week on their emerging economic legislation and both parties pointed to dueling studies they used to either laud or belittle the measure’s impact.

With Democrats needing all of their 50 votes for the energy and health care measure to move through the Senate, a Sinema spokesperson suggested the Arizona lawmaker would take her time revealing her decision. Hannah Hurley said Sinema was reviewing the bill and “will need to see what comes out of the parliamentarian process.” It could take days for the chamber’s rules umpire to decide whether the measure flouts procedural guidelines and needs changes.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, DN.Y., and Sen. Joe Manchin, DW.Va., announced an agreement last week on legislation increasing taxes on huge corporations and wealthy individuals, bolstering fossil fuels and climate change efforts and curbing pharmaceutical prices. Overall, it would raise $739 billion over 10 years in revenue and spend $433 billion, leaving over $300 billion to modestly reduce federal deficits.

The legislation would give President Joe Biden a victory on his domestic agenda in the runup to this fall’s congressional elections. If Sinema demands changes, she would face enormous pressure to reach an accord with top Democrats and avoid a campaign-season defeat that would be a jarring blow to her party’s prospects in November.

Manchin is one of Congress’ most conservative and contrarian Democrats. He has spent over a year forcing his party to starkly trim his economic proposals, citing inflation fears, and his compromise with Schumer last week shocked colleagues who’d given up hope that he would agree to such a wide-ranging measure.

Sinema has played a lower-profile but similar role as Manchin — a lawmaker who can be unpredictable and willing to use the leverage all Democrats have in a 50-50 Senate. Last year, she lauded a proposal for a minimum tax on large corporations — which the new legislation has — but has also expressed opposition to increasing corporate or individual tax rates.

“She has a lot in this bill,” Manchin, citing her support for past efforts to rein prices for prescription drugs, told reporters Monday. He said she’s been “very adamant” about not increasing taxes, adding, “I feel the same way.”

Manchin has asserted the bill’s imposition of a 15% minimum tax on corporations earning over $1 billion annually is not a tax increase. He says it closes loopholes such companies use to escape paying the current 21% corporate tax.

Republicans mocked that reasoning and said its tax increases would weaken the economy and kill jobs. They cited a report from Congress’ nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation that said about half of the corporate minimum tax would hit manufacturing firms.

“So in the middle of a supply chain crisis, Democrats want huge job-killing tax hikes that will disproportionately crush American manufacturing and manufacturing jobs,” said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.

Biden has said he will not raise taxes on people earning under $400,000 annually. Manchin has said the Democratic package honors that pledge.

Republicans recently distributed another Joint Committee on Taxation analysis that said the measure would raise taxes on people earning below that figure. Democrats criticized the study as incomplete, saying it omitted the impact on middle-class families of the bill’s health insurance subsidies and clean energy tax cuts.

Democrats touted a report by Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. It said the measure “will nudge the economy and inflation in the right direction, while meaningfully addressing climate change and reducing the government’s budget deficits.”

Schumer said he expected votes to begin this week in the Senate, where Vice President Kamala Harris could cast the tie-breaking vote to assure its passage. The narrowly divided House has left town for an August recess, but Democratic leaders have said they would bring lawmakers back for a vote, perhaps next week.

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Construction starts on Northeast Corridor’s notorious choke point, Portal North Bridge

It’s not the first time officials have come together to celebrate construction of a New Portal North Bridge — a replacement for the notorious choke point that delays up and down the Northeast Corridor as it opens for river traffic.

But, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy promised at a groundbreaking Monday, that it would be the day work to replace “one of the most critical connection points along the entire Northeast corridor begins in earnest.”

Federal, state and city lawmakers pledged the start of the long-delayed project, pegged as an economic boon to the region. They gathered around a pile of manure in a parking lot across from where the new bridge will be located, dug in faux gold shovels and tossed several shovelfuls to mark the occasion.

Afterward, lawmakers and attendees lined up to get a photo with US Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg in a tent.

“Over the years, this critical piece of infrastructure has evolved from a transit marvel into a transit nightmare,” US Senator Bob Menendez, a Democrat representing New Jersey, said. “It’s old, it’s limiting and it’s unreliable.”

One out of seven times, the current, nearly 112-year-old bridge swings open to let river traffic through, it gets stuck, he said. Workers have to slam it with sledgehammers to get the alignment back in place, Buttigieg said.

Menendez called the Portal North Bridge a “choke point on the busiest stretch of rail in America.”

The bridge will be 50 feet high, more than double the current bridge’s height, so boats can easily pass below. It’ll also be part of a new 2.4-mile span of track with a gradual incline leading to the bridge, which will allow trains to maintain their speed when crossing. The current bridge has speed restrictions, which forces trains to slow down when crossing.

NJ Transit President Kevin S. Corbett said the first track of the new bridge would open in 2026.

New York and New Jersey officials agreed last month to split about $772 million not covered by federal funding. NJ Transit last year announced it had awarded a nearly $1.6 billion construction contract for the project.

“This project turns the Portal North Bridge from a choke point to an access point,” Buttigieg said at the groundbreaking. “I hope that this bridge will not only bring people to work and loved ones to where they need to be, but it brings renewed confidence in our ability to get things done together. We’ve got a lot more good work where this came from — we are entering into a true infrastructure decade.”

Still, speaking to reporters later, Buttigieg, who was appointed by President Joe Biden, couldn’t say whether a new administration would be able to pull the plug on funding for this project and the much larger Gateway Project — an infrastructure undertaking aimed at expanding rail service into and out of New York City.

During the Trump administration, Gateway and the MTA’s congestion pricing program languished while federal authorities held up the federal review process.

The next step of the $30 billion Gateway Project is to build a new tunnel under the Hudson River. Amtrak, which owns the tunnels, hopes to break ground on that element of the project next year. But it has yet to secure a funding commitment from the federal government.

Buttigieg told the Gothamist his office is doing its best to push that along, but said all projects need to complete the proper paperwork.

“Our focus is to make sure that the gears of government turn as efficiently as they can, knowing that, obviously when you’re talking about what will add up to tens of billions of dollars of taxpayer money, you gotta do everything right,” he said. “And there’s no do overs.”

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The power of friendships between poor kids and rich kids

For a poor kid, having wealthy friends is one of the strongest determinants of economic mobility later in life.

Why it matters: That data point, from a study published in the journal Nature today, underscores the real-world power of friendship.

  • We know accumulating friends in different stages of our lives can decrease stress, lengthen life, improve our performance at work and even make us better parents.
  • We know friendships with our neighbors can be the difference between life and death in tragedies and natural disasters.
  • And now we know cross-class friendships are drivers of wealth and success for less fortunate children.

The big pictures: The study authors did a first-of-its-kind analysis of 72 million Facebook friendships between US adults.

  • What they found: If poor children grew up in neighborhoods in which 70% of their friends were rich, their future incomes would be 20% higher than their counterparts who grew up without these bonds across class lines.
  • This was a stronger indicator of future income than factors like family structure and school quality, as well as the racial makeup and job availability in the child’s community.

reality check: It’s not that simple. Friendships across class are increasingly hard to come by in our divided country.

  • For example, for people in the bottom 10% of the income distribution, only 2.5% of their friends are in the top 10%, Johannes Stroebel, an economist at NYU and one of the study authors, tells Axios.
  • There are some cities that are doing better than others. In Salt Lake City and Minneapolis, nearly half of the friends of folks in the bottom half of the income distribution are in the top half. But in Indianapolis, only about 30% of poorer people’s friends are rich.
  • And there are certain spaces where cross-class bonds are built more frequently, Stroebel says. Churches, temples and other religious spaces are in that category.

What to watch: There are big policies — like implementing school busing, diversifying college admissions by class, and increasing the availability of affordable housing — that can increase the prevalence of cross-class friendships.

But we can all make a greater effort to diversify our friend circles.

  1. reach out to people at your place of worship, your dog park or your grocery store.
  2. Meet people through volunteer work around your community.
  3. take your kids to free activities at parks and local libraries that are available to families of all backgrounds and where children can make friends with kids from all walks of life.

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