Category: Australia

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has officially declared yet another climatic phenomenon likely to add to unrelenting rain on Australia’s east coast.

Known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the climate driver affects rainfall patterns across Australia.

Persistently warm seas to the north-west of Western Australia have swung the IOD into a “negative” phase for the second year in a row.

That typically means wetter than normal weather for most of the country, particularly the south-eastern states.

Following a La Nina phase during the last two summers, it means rain-bearing climate drivers have now been in play for eastern states for two years straight.

Bureau of Meteorology head of long-range forecasting Andrew Watkins said there was also the chance La Niña could re-form for a third time during spring.

“Certainly, we are in an unusual time to have so many climate drivers pushing Australia’s climate toward wetter conditions for the past two to three years,” he said.

Increased flood risk for already sodden land

While rain is usually welcomed during winter, an already sodden landscape means the risk of flooding is a lot higher for the next few months.

Since February, Australia’s east coast has endured four intense weather systems, leading to record rains and flooding.

The events, which have occurred in southern Queensland, northern New South Wales and Sydney, have been devastating, and at times even deadly.

Dr Watkins said this year’s negative IOD was shaping up to be stronger than last year.

“This year is looking a little more on the weak to moderate scale, at least at this stage anyway,” he said.

But he said it would not change their winter outlook, which was already projecting a particularly soggy season for most of Australia.

Dr Watkins said this was because they had already anticipated it would occur and factored it into the outlook, along with a range of other drivers.

Impacts already at play

A negative IOD encourages the development of north-west cloud bands filled with moisture, which carry rain from the Gascoyne region of WA, across the central desert and into the eastern states.

This acts as a source of tropical moisture that typical winter systems, such as cold-fronts and lows, can tap into.

Dr Watkins said it is likely to have already played a role in some of the big rain events of the last two months.

“We have a seen a few north-west cloud bands already this year,” he said.

“So to some degree, it is having an influence already, alongside all of those other climate drivers that influence our climate.”

It is potentially playing a role in the severe weather currently being experienced across southern Australia, including damaging winds, heavy rain and dangerous seas.

The severe weather has been driven by a series of strong cold fronts moving across the country.

However, tropical moisture from a north-west cloud band has also fed into the system, adding to rainfall totals.

Not wet for everyone

Even though the IOD develops off the coast of Western Australia, its impacts are typically minimal to the state’s most populated area, the south-west.

In June, large parts of south-west Western Australia, including Perth, finished the month with less than half their average rainfall – a trend becoming more frequent with climate change.

July rainfall was closer to average for most.

The negative IOD is expected to last until November or December.

Even more so, in this case, when there is no provision (as there was with the 1999 proposal for the election by parliament of a head of state) for a special majority. To say “leave it to the parliament” means, in practical terms, to leave it to whatever deal Labor makes with the Greens and one independent senator (for instance, the left-wing activist David Pocock, or Jacqui Lambie). What sensible non-Labor voter would delegate the final decision on the architecture of the Voice to them?

While the prime minister may be spooked by the failure of the republic referendum, and has taken the wrong lessons from it, there are two other recent historical precedents that are instructive. In both cases, the government was transparent about its intentions, and was successful.

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The first is the GST. This was not, of course, a constitutional referendum, but those who remember the 1998 election know that it was a de facto referendum on the GST. It was the only issue in the campaign. John Howard and Peter Costello published the most complicated tax reform for a generation, in detail. In an act of real policy statesmanship, they argued the case for it thoroughly and slowly. They were not spooked by fear of failure; they showed true policy courage. Howard and Costello bet the entire government on their signature reform, and they won.

The other recent example is the same-sex marriage survey in 2017. Once again, although it was not a constitutional referendum, it was a massive act of public choice which, like the Voice, was an act of inclusion of a marginalized minority. As attorney-general, I instructed my department to prepare an exposure draft of the amendments to the Marriage Act and other legislation that would be required to enact marriage equality. Senator Dean Smith developed his own draft bill. Both drafts were published well before the survey. During the campaign, religious conservatives raised many arguments against same-sex marriage. But they were never able to argue that Australians didn’t know what the proposal meant.

There is virtually no chance that a referendum on the Voice would succeed without the opposition on board. If it isn’t bipartisan, it is bound to fail. There is no way that the Liberal and National parties would or should support a measure without insisting the full proposal be put before the public. Even then, they may oppose it. Dutton is a very tough-minded politician, unswayable by the blandishments of fashionable opinion or abuse from sections of the media. He is also highly strategic. It would not be lost on him how devastating to the Albanese government – ​​and personally, to Albanese himself – the loss of this referendum would be.

But the real devastation, were the referendum to fail, would be that felt by Indigenous Australians. Rightly or wrongly, they would see it as a betrayal. It would poison the already difficult relationship between Indigenous and other Australians for generations to come. As was the case with the republic referendum, the opportunity for constitutional reform would be put back for decades.

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If that were to happen, it would not mean – although some would undoubtedly claim it – that Australia is a racist nation. It would mean that an opportunity readily within our grasp had been fumbled. That would not be the opposition’s fault. Nor would it be the fault of a public only too willing to embrace Indigenous constitutional recognition if it is put to them in an honest and open way. It would be entirely the fault of those who, through lack of political courage and fear of transparency, turned a winning position into a losing one.

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