“For nearly everybody, it’s just tipping the balance of their underlying medical condition much like any other infection would do, but just with a bit more vigor.”
The median age for a person who has died while infected with COVID-19 in Australia is 84.7 years old.
Deakin University chair in epidemiology Professor Catherine Bennett said the older age explained why most of WA’s COVID-19 deaths were occurring outside hospitals, with some people in aged care homes choosing not to be transferred.
“When people are very frail sometimes a cold could be enough to tip someone over, it doesn’t take much for a system that is really just coping to be overwhelmed,” she said.
“COVID-19 is a more severe infection, even in a mild form, so it’s still going to lift the number of deaths we are seeing and we’re seeing it outside of the normal flu season so if someone gets through a flu season, they might survive to the next, but now they might be exposed to COVID-19 all year round and that’s an extra challenge.”
Statistics compiled by Bennett showed WA’s death rate for COVID recently was 25 per cent less than the national average.
As WA comes down from its third Omicron wave peak, Curtin University epidemiologist Archie Clements said the lower fatality rate was the result of the state’s high vaccine coverage and its dominant strain being the milder Omicron variant.
“I think we’re unlikely to see the health service being overburdened by COVID-19 in the near future unless there is a completely new variant that emerges that is more pathogenic and where there is no cross-protection,” he said.
“We’ll keep getting waves but I would expect that overtime the size of those waves will continue to decline and eventually, we will end up at some endemic state where we will have smaller numbers of cases that may cause outbreaks in the winter seasons.
“Overtime our vaccine immunity is going to wane in fact it already has for the majority of people in the population who haven’t had their third or fourth shot, but the majority of people have now been exposed which will induce some natural immunity and protect people.”
loading
WA Health statistics showed to date just over 1 million COVID-19 cases have been in the community this year, with 4814 people admitted to hospital with the virus, 213 of those in intensive care. The total number of deaths recorded was 500 (figures include those with incidental COVID-19).
Modeling released by the Telethon Kids Institute in April predicted up to 147,000 infections by the end of July, and up to 740 deaths.
Premier Mark McGowan conceded previous forecasts by the state government had also been inaccurate at predicting the severity of the virus.
“We don’t know where [the COVID-19 numbers] will go, but what I find with modeling is it’s always wrong and so I think you’ve got to actually take account of the lived experience,” he said.
“The best thing people can do is wear a mask in a crowded indoor environment and make sure you get tested and stay home if you are positive.”
NB: Hospitals were unable to provide the vaccination status of those who died on ventilators.
Follow WAtoday on Instagram, LinkedIn, Facebook and Twitter for handpicked selections of the day’s biggest local, national and international news.