Teal independents could win a bag of seats off Matthew Guy’s Liberal Party

Some Liberals told The Age they objected to the framing of questions being asked in the poll, which assume the state campaigns will find candidates of similar quality to Ryan and Daniel.

Yaron Gottlieb, who worked with independent candidate Daniel in her seat of Goldstein, said that while no candidates had been endorsed, there were locals interested in standing as candidates in Sandringham and Brighton.

He said there was currently “zero groundswell” for a campaign in Caulfield, expected to be a close contest between Labor and Liberal deputy leader David Southwick.

Voters in the seats of Brighton, Caulfield and Sandringham were asked who they would support if given a choice of a “candidate like Zoe Daniel” or another party. Local Liberal MPs were named. In Hawthorn and Kew, the same question was asked about Ryan and local Liberal candidates were named.

The polling found:

• In Brighton (750 respondents), 39 per cent said they would vote Liberal (a drop of six per cent from the 2018 election result), 23 per cent said they would vote Labor, 23 per cent said they would vote for an independent and seven per cent said they would vote Greens. Redbridge calculated these results would lead to a 51-49 two-party preferred win to an independent.
• In Sandringham (744 respondents), 31 per cent said they would vote Liberal (a drop of 11 per cent), 27 per cent said they would vote for Labor, 25 per cent said they would vote for an independent and seven per cent said they would vote Green. Redbridge believes this would lead to a 54-46 win to an independent.
• In Caulfield (837 respondents), 37 per cent of people said they would vote Liberal (10 per cent drop), 23 per cent said they would vote Labor, 19 per cent said they would vote for an independent and 14 per cent said they would vote Greens. Redbridge said this would result in a 56-44 win to an independent.
• In Hawthorn (979 respondents), 37 per cent said they would vote Liberal (an eight per cent drop), 22 per cent said they would vote Labor, 22 per cent said they would vote for an independent and 12 per cent said they would vote Green. Redbridge said this would result in a 55-45 independent win.
• In Kew (918 respondents), 37 per cent said they would vote Liberal (a 12 per cent drop), 24 per cent said they would back an independent, 23 per cent said they would vote Labor and seven per cent said they would vote Green . Redbridge said this would result in a 55-45 independent win.

All the polled seats are held by the Liberal Party except Hawthorn, which is held by Labor. The poll indicates support for Labor has also dropped since 2018. Both major parties believe there has been a tightening in recent months between the Coalition and Labor.

A Liberal source connected to the Hawthorn campaign said the level of support for an independent represented about half of the primary vote for Ryan in May, and was a sign of moderate Liberal candidate John Pesutto’s suitability. However, teal candidates such as Ryan and Daniel were polling in the teens three months before the federal election.

The Coalition is desperate to retain inner-city seats and win back Hawthorn to claw back the 18 seats required to form government in the 88-seat parliament. The Coalition’s recently announced suite of climate change policies was designed to secure support in inner-urban electorates.

While not included in the polling, The Age has spoken to three sources who all confirmed independent candidates would also stand in the seat of South-West Coast and Benambra.

Once represented by former Victorian premier, Denis Napthine, South-West Coast is currently held by Liberal MP Roma Roma Britnell by a margin of 3.3 per cent and is within the boundaries of the federal seat of Wannon, where former trade minister Dan Tehan suffered a six per cent swing after a strong campaign from independent candidate Alex Dyson.

The seat of Benambra, in the northeast, is held by Bill Tilley but sits entirely within the federal electorate of Indi, which has been held by an independent for almost a decade.

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