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Ground Breakers: Coal delivers Glencore stunning 800% lift

Outwardly Glencore, one of the world’s largest producers and traders of thermal coal, is circumspect about the future of the commodity, commonly referred to as the world’s dirtiest fuel.

A crushing energy crisis, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and years of underinvestment in new coal supply have seen the commodity surge to record highs of in and around US$400/t.

Asked about whether it would consider reversing its position on running down its coal production along with net zero targets by 2050 on an earnings call yesterday, CEO Gary Nagle said the company remained aligned with the positions of global governments.

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“We will not divert from our plan to responsibly run down our coal business. We made a commitment to our stakeholders, we made a commitment to the world. It’s right for the world and we will continue down that path,” he said.

“It’s not negotiable. I mean, in an extreme event that all the governments of the world come together and say, we’re putting a pause on (responding to) climate change, and we need energy security and please produce more coal … yes, we would.

“I think that’s very unlikely to happen.”

Inwardly Glencore’s traders are probably running around the halls of its Swiss offices singing “coal, coal, coal, coal” the way Vikings lovingly sing about spam in the world of Monty Python.

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Coal’s magic run

For Glencore coal’s magic 2022 run has translated into a stunning 800%+ lift in earnings per share from US0.10c to US0.92c in the first half of 2022, with coal sales the backbone of a jump of 119% in adjusted first half EBITDA to US$18.9b.

Coal earnings rose like a phoenix from the CO2-emitting ashes, climbing from US$912m in the first half of 2021 to US$8.9b in the first half of 2022.

Energy trading (up 344%) was also the biggest contributor to a 104% earnings lift in Glencore’s marketing division to US$3.7b.

Metals and mining fell 17% as prices for hard commodities fell off.

Margins in Glencore’s coal operations rose a staggering 760% in the past year to US$160.8b. At spot levels, it will generate US$20b in earnings in 2022 at a margin of US$165/t.

Glencore will pay US$4.5 billion back to shareholders including a US$3 billion share buyback, taking its capital returns for 2022 to around US$8.5b.

Sheesh.

Glencore expects spot adjusted EBITDA of over US$32 billion in 2022, against US$21.3b in 2021.

Rio man joins newest lithium miner

Like many in the lithium game, Core Lithium (ASX:CXO) has gone from a tiddler to a significant mining stock in a short time, rising 301.56% over the past year to a market cap of $2.22 billion.

The company is poised to be the next hard rock miner to enter production with its Finniss mine in the NT due to open in December.

Core has been without a leader for a while since the surprise resignation of MD Stephen Biggins a few months ago.

It is up 6.2% today though after rectifying that, with Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) executive Gareth Manderson stepping into the void as CEO.

Manderson has been at Rio for 22 years where he was most recently the general manager of sustaining capital, running projects spending $1.6ba year across its Pilbara iron ore network.

“I have been impressed by what the Core team have achieved to date and I am delighted to be given the opportunity to lead Core at this vital time in the company’s growth,” Manderson said.

“With construction of Stage 1 of the Finniss Lithium Project nearing completion and the pending export of lithium, I look forward to leading Core and working with my colleagues across the business to ensure that we maintain strong safety, operational and financial performance.”

Core chairman Greg English said there were synergies with Core’s upcoming spodumene operations, which is 25km from the Darwin CBD and port.

Spodumene prices are around record highs, fetching over US$6000/t on spot markets.

This content first appeared on stockhead.com.au

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Originally published as Ground Breakers: Coal delivers Glencore stunning 800% lift

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Categories
Business

China mocks Scott Morrison, Australia’s ‘arrogance’ after ACCC gas report

China has branded Australia “laughable”, mocking the Government and former prime minister Scott Morrison in the wake of a “damning” gas report.

The comments were made as part of a scornful article published by the CCP-controlled Global Times.

The piece mocks a suggestion that Australia could step in and help with supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to European allies impacted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

At the start of 2022, the then-prime minister Mr Morrison said his government was looking at options that would allow Australia to fill international demand for gas if Russia stops exporting to Europe.

“Awkwardly, some in Australia are now warning of a potential shortage in the country and urging to set aside gas for Australia’s own electricity network before selling to the rest of the world,” the Global Times article noted.

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On Monday, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s (ACCC) gas inquiry 2017-2025 interim report warned businesses could shut down and there could be a record shortage of gas in the southern states next year unless something is done about the nation’s energy crisis.

The ACCC predicted a 56 petajoule shortfall in east coast gas supply by 2023, a figure it called a “significant risk to energy security” that was equivalent to 10 per cent of expected domestic demand.

China said the situation currently facing Australia was both “laughable and serious”.

“Laughable, because this reflects Australian officials’ overconfidence and arrogance in making empty promises it cannot deliver; serious, because a potential move could significantly affect already disrupted global energy supplies, given that Australia is known as one of the world’s top LNG exporters,” the newspaper noted.

Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine has seen international demand for LNG soar, with Beijing claiming a decision from Australia to impose export restrictions could “hurt some of its European and Asian allies the most”.

The article blasted Mr Morrison for his “empty promises” for saying Australia will help its allies when they are in need.

“It is clear that a possible reduction in Australia’s LNG exports would further exacerbate the global energy crisis and push up prices, while increasing the energy anxiety in countries that used to see Australia as a reliable source of supplies,” the Global Times said.

“Some of its allies may also be annoyed by Australia’s inability to actually offer help in areas where it apparently has an advantage.”

The article noted that China has recently made efforts to diversify its energy imports following recent tensions with Australia, with Beijing last year signing new LNG contracts with the US instead.

However, the outlet assured readers that any decision by Australia would not “fundamentally undermine” China’s energy security.

Government reacts to ‘damning’ gas report

Australia’s Resources Minister Madeleine King branded the new ACCC report as “damning” of gas exporters after it found they were not engaging locally “in the spirit” of the heads of agreement.

“We remain concerned that some (liquefied) natural gas LNG exporters are not engaging with the domestic market in the spirit in which the heads of agreement was signed,” the report said.

“LNG producers will need to divert a significant proportion of their excess gas into the domestic market.”

Ms King said gas producers “know” the report is “damning for them”.

“The ACCC report is damning, no doubt about it,” she said.

“It sets out patterns and instances of behavior that are clearly not acceptable in an environment where we do have an international and domestic energy supply crisis.”

The ACCC described the outlook for 2023 as “very concerning” with gas prices likely to increase.

“The outlook for 2023 is very concerning and is likely to place further upward pressure on prices, which could result in some commercial and industry users no longer being able to operate,” the report said.

“It could also lead to demand having to be curtailed.”

This shortfall will mainly affect NSW, Victoria, South Australia, the ACT and Tasmania, where “resources have been diminishing for some time”, though Queensland may also be impacted.

– with NCA NewsWire

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