The Australian government interpreted this, correctly, as a warning to a new prime minister to back off. The message was more forceful than anything Qian might say in Canberra.
A Chinese PLA J-16 fighter jet in an undated photo released by the Taiwan Ministry of Defense.Credit:AP
Xi is asserting power in a way China could not in the past: the US sent aircraft carriers through the Taiwan Strait in 1995 and 1996 but cannot risk doing the same now.
Will it change what Australia does? Not so far. The Deputy Prime Minister, Richard Marles, told me a week ago the surveillance flights would continue because they reinforced the principle of freedom of navigation in international airspace.
Friction is certain because Chinese President Xi Jinping has led a more aggressive foreign policy and will make this his legacy.
Qian is an urbane and experienced diplomat who spoke with courtesy at the National Press Club. While there is real concern about giving a platform to a government that engages in human rights abuses in Xinjiang and crushes protesters in Hong Kong, the top Chinese diplomat deserves a chance to speak to a wide audience. The result: Australians can hear, in very clear language, what China wants.
So his speech crystallized the strategic problem. What China wants, Australia cannot give. It cannot ignore the camps in Xinjiang or turn a deaf ear to the people of Hong Kong. It cannot open the door to Huawei and the security weaknesses that would follow. It cannot pretend Chinese cyberattacks are not happening. It cannot shrug off the fact that China built military bases in the South China Sea at the very time it said it was not doing so. Or sit mute while China takes Taiwan by force against the wishes of 23 million people.
A country that agreed to those terms would be unrecognizable to Australians today.
China would never allow the Australian ambassador in Beijing to deliver a similar speech, but what would an Australian say if the opportunity arose? What do Australians want? An end to trade bans on exports from wine to barley and lobsters. The restoration of “one country two systems” in Hong Kong. An end to human rights abuses in Xinjiang. The release of Australians such as Cheng Lei who have been detained in China without trial or fair process. The status quo for the people of Taiwan so their island’s status can be decided without coercion or force.
Qian delivered his message with a smile and said he was setting out China’s “hopes” rather than “demands” but this nuance does not really change the terms of a reset. Unfortunately, his most important message from him was that China was willing to go to war over Taiwan.
The people of Taiwan will be heard as well. The National Press Club has invited ministers in Taipei and their representatives in Australia to speak at the club as soon as possible. The mainland Chinese are not the only ones who can scramble in a crisis.
Will there be war? One calculation in Canberra is that Xi, at 69, is determined to take Taiwan before he dies. At one level, the missile launches of the past week are the tantrum of an immature superpower. At a deeper level, they demonstrate how Xi is willing to gamble on greater conflict. He will take the risk of a miscalculation. Already, he is asserting power in the Taiwan Strait in a way China could not do in the past: the US sent aircraft carriers through the strait during the crisis in 1995 and 1996 but cannot risk doing the same now.
loading
With a huge economy and a fast-growing military, China is a rising power that will change the global balance between major nations. (This is the essential contrast with Russia, a declining power that is a relatively small economy.) The speech from Xi’s ambassador this week was a clarifying moment. We could all see and hear what China expects in its version of the global order.
Unfortunately, it is hard to see a future without more conflict. Australia has to prepare for more J-16 fighters to take to the air to give Xi what he wants.
The Opinion newsletter is a weekly wrap of views that will challenge, champion and inform your own. Sign up here.