The penultimate round of the season is here and yet again there’s several matches that will come to define the final make up of the top eight.
Friday night sees St Kilda take on Brisbane at Marvel Stadium in a game the Saints must win if they hold out any hope of playing finals this year.
Looking ahead to Saturday, it’s all about the clash between Carlton and reigning premiers Melbourne under lights at the MCG.
And on Sunday, it’s a top four heavyweight blockbuster when Sydney and Collingwood go head-to-head at a sold out SCG.
See our previews and tips for all nine Round 22 matches below:
All times AEST
SUBSCRIBE TO THE AFL RECORD AND GET IT DELIVERED TO YOUR HOUSE EVERY WEEK.
St Kilda v Brisbane Lions
Friday – 7:50pm – Marvel Stadium
St Kilda will be looking to keep their season alive when they host Brisbane at Marvel Stadium to open Round 22.
Equally, the Lions will be keen to stay on the winner’s list with a top-four finish in their grasp should they win their remaining two games in 2022.
Last time out these sides met at the Gabba, with St Kilda looking like a potential contender at that stage.
That 21-point loss to Brisbane though would kickstart somewhat of a slide for Brett Ratten’s side as the Saints went 1-5 in the following six games.
With the Saints proving to be a step or two behind the frontrunners, Brisbane will hope that their class shines through under the roof en route to victory.
While it’s St Kilda’s home game, Marvel Stadium is a happy hunting ground for Chris Fagan’s side who have won four straight games at the venue including a 56-point win over the Saints in Round 14, 2019.
If Lachie Neale, Jarryd Lyons and Hugh McCluggage can again get the upper hand in the midfield, it could be a long night for the Saints.
If the home side is a chance, they’ll need to defend well and move the ball quickly to score at least 80 points.
Tip: Brisbane by 19 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Western Bulldogs v GWS Giants
Saturday – 1:45pm – University of Tasmania Stadium
Modern-day rivals Western Bulldogs and GWS face off for the second time this year as the Dogs’ finals chances go on the line yet again.
Coming into the penultimate round of the season, Luke Beveridge’s side remains outside of the eighth and have little room to move if they want to play finals this year.
Coming up against the Giants promises to be a tricky proposition, with GWS coming off a big bounce back disappointing performance against Essendon last week and looking to finish off a largelying season well.
Like many Bulldogs games, this one promises to be won and lost in the midfield as two star-studded on-ball outfits go head-to-head.
The Giants will be without Toby Greene after he played last week with a fractured thumb and in truth, are rank outsiders here.
The Dogs should win with so much on the line, but they’ve been hit and miss at times this year so don’t discount the Giants.
Tip: Western Bulldogs by 4 points.
Laurence Rosen
Adelaide v North Melbourne
Saturday – 2:10pm – Adelaide Oval
Adelaide will play host to North Melbourne on Saturday afternoon.
North Melbourne’s away record against the Crows isn’t great, they haven’t beaten Adelaide in Adelaide since 2003 … a grim stat for Kangaroos fans.
We welcome back Roos great Ben Cunnington who’s playing his first senior game for 2022 after overcoming two bouts of testicular cancer.
Nick Larkey was back to his best last week, booting a career-best bag of seven goals against Sydney – he’ll need to perform well if the Kangaroos are a chance to knock off the home side.
As for the Crows, they’re looking to make it three on the trot for the first time in a long time.
In a game that meant a lot to West Coast last week, Adelaide were great, booting 16 goals away from home in a complete four quarter performance.
Both teams have had fairly disappointing years, making it a tough game to tip with any confidence.
Tip: Adelaide by 23 points.
Hugh Fitzpatrick
Gold Coast v Geelong
Saturday – 4:35pm – Marvel Stadium
What was set to be Patrick Dangerfield’s 300th game loses some relevance given the Geelong superstar was a late out last week.
Unless Geelong loses both of its last two games and Collingwood surprises Sydney and holds off Carlton in Round 23, Chris Scott’s men will finish minor premiers for the first time since 2019.
Meanwhile, despite a plucky season, the Suns have lost three of their last four games.
With endings completely out of the question, Gold Coast is purely playing for pride. However, they’ve shown heart and taken plenty of steps forward this season, meaning the Cats won’t find it easy at Metricon Stadium.
Of their eight games at home so far in 2022, the Suns also have a strong record with five wins.
But Geelong is on an equal competition-high 11-game winning streak, and the leadership from the club throughout the season suggests they’ll find a way to get over the line.
Gold Coast has been one of the best effort sides of the league in 2022 and will match Geelong around the footy, a strength of Scott’s side that has become evident in recent weeks.
The Cats’ defense will look to stifle the Suns and consolidate their fast ball movement style, but Stuart Dew’s men have only dropped below 80 points at home twice this year.
There’s no doubt Gold Coast won’t be pushovers, but Geelong should be able to slice up the visitors and find a way to win.
Type: Geelong by 25 points.
Seb Mottram
Melbourne v Carlton
Saturday – 7:25pm – MCG
Saturday night’s showdown between Melbourne and Carlton has huge final implications.
The Demons finished the round in third spot despite a seven-point loss to Collingwood, their sixth defeat in their past 10 games.
Simon Goodwin’s side squandered a 20-point lead for fifth time since Round 11 in the defeat to the Magpies.
The Demons are locked on 14 wins along with Sydney and Brisbane – a win here would go along way to securing a top four finish.
It also a big night for the Blues who require one more victory to all but clinch a finals spot.
Consecutive losses to Adelaide and Brisbane dented Carlton’s final hopes and left the door open for surrounding clubs to pinch their spot in the eight.
Their task against the reigning premiers has been made more difficult due to key midfield personnel stuck on the sidelines.
Carlton’s record against Melbourne in recent times has been poor.
They’ve lost their last six against the Dees and haven’t been greeted in his fixture since 2016.
Given the Blues’ depleted midfield stocks, the Demons’ star-studded on-ball brigade, led by Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca, could gain the ascendancy at the coalface.
Tip: Melbourne by 13 points.
alex zaya
Subscribe to the SEN YouTube channel for the latest videos!
Fremantle v West Coast
Saturday – 7:40pm – Optus Stadium
Fremantle will go in hot favorites to claim their 23rd Western Derby win on Saturday night as they look to press their top four hopes against a struggling West Coast side.
In the 55th edition of the rivalry clash, it’s the Dockers who will be on the hunt for a big win as they need to earn victories in the final two rounds to clinch a double chance.
Considering Western Derby’s have produced wide margins in recent years and the Dockers sit sixth while the Eagles are 17th, Justin Longmuir’s side will feel confident in getting on top of their opponents.
Last time out, it was the Dockers who saluted by 55 points with the Round 3 clash proving that they were a few steps ahead of their rivals in 2022.
In that clash, Fremantle had 27 shots on goal to West Coast’s 12 and they’d hope for a similar output this time.
Going in search of their third-straight win over their rivals, Fremantle will hope that their class and ability to win stoppages holds them in good stead, while the Eagles will be desperate to snap a six-game losing streak.
Considering the Eagles can’t finish any higher than second, last they don’t have much to lose in this game and will be throwing everything at the Dockers knowing it won’t compromise their draft position.
Simply put though, there’s just too big a gap in class in this match-up and Fremantle should breeze to victory.
Tip: Fremantle by 42 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Richmond v Hawthorn
Sunday – 1:10pm – MCG
Richmond and Hawthorn will clash for the second time this year in what looms as a defining game for the Tigers.
Given Carlton and the Bulldogs’ failures in Round 21, Richmond will likely only need one more win to play finals. Locking that away here would save them some stress heading into Round 23.
Meanwhile, Hawthorn has the chance to play a spoiler for the Tigers, and then the following week for the Dogs as well.
It was a high scoring affair when they met earlier in the season, with Richmond winning 117-94. Tom Lynch kicked four, while Mitch Lewis and Luke Breust combined for six.
Their 2021 encounter ended in a draw as the Hawks farewelled Shaun Burgoyne.
Hawthorn has been up and down this year, but impressed last weekend, defeating the Gold Coast in Tasmania.
Richmond, meanwhile, are also hitting their straps as they put a nail in the coffin of Port Adelaide’s season.
Sam Mitchell hasn’t been afraid to put a tag on this season – could this finally be the week where a team puts some defensive thought into Shai Bolton?
Finn Maginness restricted Touk Miller to 21 disposals last weekend and has proven effective in that role.
With everything at stake, it’s hard to tip against the Tigers.
Type: Richmond by 19 points.
Nic Negrepontis
Sydney Swans v Collingwood
Sunday – 3:20pm – SCG
Sydney hosts Collingwood at the SCG in a mouth-watering contest that has massive top-four implications.
The Swans occupy fourth position heading into Round 21 (which they could relinquish to Brisbane or Fremantle depending on their results) while the Magpies sit second, a game ahead of the chasing pack.
John Longmire’s side enters this on the back of a comfortable 38-point win over North Melbourne where they returned a season-high score of 126. It was their fifth victory on the trot and the fourth time in that run kicking a score of 110 or more.
The Swans have certainly unlocked their attacking power and are now the second highest scoring team in the league.
The Magpies have a fascinating story to tell in 2022.
Under Craig McRae they have won 11 in a row to find themselves just a game off top spot.
They took down the Demons last Friday night, edging the reigning premiers by seven points in their eighth single-digit win of the season. Remarkably, six of those have come consecutively.
They have proven many doubters wrong to date and now head to a venue where the home teams holds an 8-2 record this season. Six of the last seven meetings between these two sides have been at the SCG with the Swans holding a narrow 4-2 lead.
The Pies have been superb and brave across the last few months, but at some point their luck might just run out and it could be against a powerful Swans outfit in Sydney.
Tip: Sydney by 11 points.
Andrew Slevison
Essendon v Port Adelaide
Sunday – 4:40pm – Marvel Stadium
Essendon and Port Adelaide are playing for pride at Marvel Stadium this weekend.
Both clubs are out of final contention after featuring in September last year.
The Bombers fell to their 13th loss of what has been a disappointing season when going down to GWS by 27 points last week.
“I reckon the last 10 weeks or so have been pretty consistent,” coach Ben Rutten said post-game.
“That performance was certainly a bit of an outlier for us. I didn’t see it coming. I can’t put my finger on it right now.”
Rutten’s side host the Power who are officially out of the finals race following a home loss to Richmond.
The 38-point defeat was their fourth in a row and 12th of the campaign.
Port Adelaide has had Essendon’s measure in recent times, winning their last four games by an average margin of 44 points.
The latest meeting between these two clubs was won by the Power in Round 11 this year by 16 points.
Both teams aren’t playing particularly good footy at the moment, making this game a tough one to call.
Backing the Power to snap their run of losses.
Tip: Port Adelaide by 13 points.
alex zaya
.